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Bankruptcy prediction model
Kratochvilová, Monika ; Bartoš, Vojtěch (referee) ; Karas, Michal (advisor)
This diploma thesis is focused on the evaluation of the efficiency of selected bankruptcy models in the Czech Republic. In the theoretical part the basic terminology and methodology of bankruptcy models creation are introduced. In addition are mentioned, model constraints, an overview of the indicators used, and information about model accuracy. This part also presents analyzed models and methods of assessing the reliability of bankruptcy models. In the practical part, the reliability of selected bankruptcy models is evaluated and a new bankruptcy model is built.
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Bankruptcy prediction modelling in manufacturing branch
Kulkusová, Martina ; Kuběnka,, Michal (referee) ; Karas, Michal (advisor)
The diploma thesis is aimed at the problematic within the prediction of bankruptcy of companies operating in manufacturing industry in Czech Republic. There are defined terms related to the topic, methods of creating bankruptcy models and selected bankruptcy models in the theoretical part. Analytical part includes testing of the selected bankruptcy models. Thereafter a new bankruptcy model is created, which is subsequently tested and its accuraccy is compared to models from other authors.
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Bankruptcy prediction modelling in manufacturing branch
Synková, Gabriela ; Bartoš, Vojtěch (referee) ; Karas, Michal (advisor)
This diploma thesis deals with the creation of a bankruptcy model for the manufacturing industry in the Czech Republic using logit analysis. The theoretical part defines the concept of bankruptcy model, financial distress and financial health of the company. This section is focused on the influence of macroeconomics on the accuracy of these models, a look into their history and description of selected models. The practical part of the thesis is initially focused on determining the reliability of selected bankruptcy models, and then a new bankruptcy model is compiled.
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Bankruptcy prediction models in the Czech economy: New specification using Bayesian model averaging and logistic regression on the latest data
Kolísko, Jiří ; Princ, Michael (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
The main objective of our research was to develop a new bankruptcy prediction model for the Czech economy. For that purpose we used the logistic regression and 150,000 financial statements collected for the 2002-2016 period. We defined 41 explanatory variables (25 financial ratios and 16 dummy variables) and used Bayesian model averaging to select the best set of explanatory variables. The resulting model has been estimated for three prediction horizons: one, two, and three years before bankruptcy, so that we could assess the changes in the importance of explanatory variables and models' prediction accuracy. To deal with high skew in our dataset due to small number of bankrupt firms, we applied over- and under- sampling methods on the train sample (80% of data). These methods proved to enhance our classifier's accuracy for all specifications and periods. The accuracy of our models has been evaluated by Receiver operating characteristics curves, Sensitivity-Specificity curves, and Precision-Recall curves. In comparison with models examined on similar data, our model performed very well. In addition, we have selected the most powerful predictors for short- and long-term horizons, which is potentially of high relevance for practice. JEL Classification C11, C51, C53, G33, M21 Keywords Bankruptcy...
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Financial analysis Kooperativa pojistovna, a.s.
Michálková, Tereza ; Holečková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Staňková, Anna (referee)
Following bachelor thesis is focused on the financial analysis of Kooperativa pojišťovna, a.s. company. The thesis is divided into two main parts - methodical and practical. The methodical part defines financial analysis in general, its goals and users, focuses on its methods and describes financial ratios and complex models. In the practical part the analysed company is introduced and its financial analysis for the period of 2011-2015 with the use of explained methods and principles is realized. At the end of the thesis the knowledge gained from the financial analysis is summed up and the recommendation is provided.
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The prediction of corporate bankruptcy and credit risk
Kosturák, Matej ; Gapko, Petr (advisor) ; Novák, Jiří (referee)
This thesis present concise but comprehensive overview of most important paper dedicated to prediction of corporate bankruptcy, as well as overview of the theory behind the employed models and crucial indicators for quality assessment and comparison of the estimations. Manually collected data includes financial statement, identification information and especially specifications of management and responsible persons. From this point of view, data collected are of high quality and in Czech Republic relatively unique. Noticeable is also multiple imputation method used, current "state-of-the-art" technique for missing data treatment. Practical part concentrates on models estimation for various data setting, when contrasting models on raw and truncated datasets. By smoothing data, significantly better model can be estimated with superior discriminating power on the same data points. Inclusion of macroeconomic variables as well as even more significant governance indicators according to current stage of research, improved estimated models.
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Bankruptcy prediction modelling in construction business
Burdych, Filip ; Kuběnka,, Michal (referee) ; Karas, Michal (advisor)
This master thesis deals with bankruptcy prediction models for construction companies doing business in Czech Republic. Terms important for understanding the issue are defined in the theoretical part. In analytical part, there are five current bankruptcy prediction models tested on the analysed sample and resulted accuracy compared with original ones. On the basis of knowledges acquired, there is developed a brand-new bankruptcy prediction model.
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Applications credibility and bankruptcy models to compare the financial health of breweries
Varkalová, Světlana ; Holečková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Staňková, Anna (referee)
This thesis deals with selected credit scoring and bankruptcy models and their ability to pre-dict financial problems in a company. Among the models included in the paper are the Altman bankruptcy model Z - Score, Index of credibility of the Neumaier (IN95, IN05) Taffler mod-el, Kralicek Quick test, Grünwald creditworthiness model. The methodological part focuses on the detailed description of each individual model. The practical part includes a customised application of the models on the selected breweries and subsequent assessment of the ability of the models to predict financial distress.
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Credit Risk Measurement in Manufacturing Industry Companies in the Czech Republic
Karas, Michal ; Dohnal, Mirko (referee) ; Hrvolová, Božena (referee) ; Myšková, Renáta (referee) ; Režňáková, Mária (advisor)
The purpose of this doctoral thesis is to create a new bankruptcy prediction model and also to design how to use this model for the purposes of credit risk measuring. The starting-point of this work is the analysis of traditional bankruptcy models. It was found out that the traditional bankruptcy model are not enough effective in the current economic conditions and it is necessary to create a new ones. Based on the identified deficiencies of the traditional models a set of two new model series was created. The first series of the created models is based on the use of parametric methods, and the second one is based on the use of newer nonparametric approach. Moreover, a set of factors which are able to identify an imminent bankruptcy was analyzed. It was found, that significant signs of imminent bankruptcy can be identified even five years before the bankruptcy occurs. Based on these findings a new model was created. This model incorporates variables of static and even dynamic character for bankruptcy prediction purposes. The overall classification accuracy of this model is 92.27% of correctly classified active companies and 95.65% of correctly classified bankrupt companies.
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Financial analysis of company Wellen, a.s.
Tsaturjanová, Nare ; Štamfestová, Petra (advisor) ; Špička, Jindřich (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to analyse and evaluate financial health of Wellen, a.s. company using the methods of financial analysis. This financial analysis is performed from an external user point of view based on financial statements of the company within years 2008 and 2012. This bachelor thesis is divided into theoretical part and practical part. Theoretical part includes explanations of basic concept and description of chosen methods of financial analysis in terms of their use and application. Practical part is focused on introduction of the chosen company, also on the application of chosen methods applied to real situation in the company, and on interpretation of achieved results. The used methodical apparatus are absolute and ratio indicators, Du Pont analysis, estimation of the costs of equity, economic value added and some models of financial crisis prediction. In the final part of this bachelor thesis are summarized the results of all used methods and is reviewed the evolution of financial situation of Wellen company during the reporting period together with recommendations for improvements.
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