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Sentiment a akciové trhy rozvíjejících se zemí
Hussein, Kamil
This thesis studies effect of sentiment in Emerging markets. More specifically investigates market sentiment inflowing from developed markets and its impact on emerging markets. There are used developed markets’ implied volatility indices and indices of emerging markets to quantify the relationship between developed market’ sentiment and emerging markets’ economies. The influence of Emerging markets by sentiment deriving from developed markets is analysed by VAR model and Granger causality. The results of this thesis show that the Indian stocks market is influenced by all three developed markets investigated, which are USA, the United Kingdom and Germany. The Russian market is affected by sentiment from the United Kingdom. US’ sentiment produces significant impact on the Mexican stock market. Other analysed markets, which are the Turkish and Brazilian market, are not shown to be significantly influenced by any of the developed countries studied.
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Are realized moments useful for stock market returns analysis?
Saktor, Ira ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Kočenda, Evžen (referee)
This thesis analyzes the use of realized moments in asset pricing. The analysis is done using dataset containing log-returns for 29 of the most traded stocks and covering 10 years of data. The dataset is split into training set covering 7 years and test set covering 3 years of data. For each of the stocks a separate time series model is estimated. In evaluation of the quality of the models, metrics such as RMSE, MAD, accuracy in forecasting the sign of future returns, and returns achievable by executing trades based on the recommendations from the model are used. Even though the inclusion of realized moments does not provide significant improvements in terms of RMSE, it is found that realized skewness and kurtosis significantly contribute to explaining the returns of individual stocks as they lead to consistent improvements in identifying future positive, as well as negative, returns. Moreover, the recommendations from the models using realized moments can help us achieve significantly higher returns from trading stocks. Inclusion of the interaction terms for variance and returns, skewness and returns, and kurtosis and variance, provides additional improvement of forecasting accuracy, as well as improvements in returns achievable by executing transactions based on recommendations from the model....
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Coexceedance in financial markets of countries trying to join the European Union
Baranová, Zuzana ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
This thesis analyses financial contagion between a reference EU market - Germany and markets of five countries which are actively seeking to become a part of European Union - Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey, Bosnia and Macedonia in the period of March 2006 to March 2018. We apply quantile regression framework to analyse contagion which we base on the occurrence and degree of coexceedances between the reference and analysed market. The results indicate that contagion between stock markets exists, however in different degree for each of the analysed markets. In addition we apply the regression framework specifically for period of financial crisis of 2008 to demonstrate that contagion is stronger during turbulent market periods. JEL Classification G01, G14, G15 Keywords coexceedance, quantile regression, contagion, stock markets Author's e-mail 80605682@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail roman.horvath@fsv.cuni.cz
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Can the stock markets predict changes in macroeconomic variables?
Vařeka, Marek ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Hayat, Arshad (referee)
A bstract There is a consensus in the literature, that the stock market can predict the Gross domestic product on quarterly base or the industrial production, which is good proxy for GDP, on monthly basis and that the causal rela tionship between stock market and GDP should work both ways. However, using Vector autoregression model on US data since 1950, model shows that the stock market can not only predict the Industrial production on monthly basis, but also ISM non-manufacturing index, which is a good proxy for services in the economy. Furthermore I have managed to prove, that the unemployment can be predicted by past realizations of the stock market and managed to explain almost one third of all variations in change in un employment using S&P500 and oil prices during last 20 years. The Granger causality test concluded that stock market does cause the unemployment but not vice versa, at least during last 20 years.
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Scale of Market Movements for US stock market
Kašpárek, Radim ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Smutná, Šarlota (referee)
Currently, there is no singular, codified, and widely accepted approach to wards measuring the depth of financial crises. One of the approaches ap plied towards this problematic has been to build on the observed similarity between financial markets and dynamic systems in physics and to create analogous systems. The Scale of Market Shocks originally proposed for foreign exchange markets has been adapted for the US stock market in or der to provide US policy makers with a tool to assess the severity of such crises. Using methodology adapted from relevant research and literature we used volatilities calculated with different sampling resolution as the basis for our scale as we believe that these capture the behavior of different market agents. The resultant scale correctly identifies sharp movements and assign them a numerical value that denotes the importance of a crash. This scale is applicable for US policy makers to assess outcomes of proposed policies, however, the use of Principal Component Analysis to ease the computational complexity proved to not yield required results.
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Influence of German Bundestag Elections on the Stock Market Performance in Visegrad Group Countries
Skála, Jakub ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Chytilová, Julie (referee)
This thesis deals with the behaviour of stock markets during the period of election process. We focus on the influence of elections to the German Bundestag on stock market performance of the countries allied in Visegrad Group during the reference period 1994-2013 covering six Bundestag elections. Germany is a major export partner for all members of Visegrad Group - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. We examine whether there are abnormal returns on stock markets in Visegrad Group countries around the date of German Bundestag elections. We thus examine if the fact that performance of German economy is important for performance of economies of countries allied in Visegrad Group means that Bundestag elections influences their stock markets. We also analyze the influence of elections to German Bundestag on domestic stock market during the reference period 1961-2013. To measure the effect of elections we employ event study methodology using the mean-adjusted return model to measure normal returns. Our event window consists of 65 trading days around the election day (-15,50). We use the estimation window of 100 days (-150,-51). We assess our main hypothesis for each country around every Bundestag elections in our reference period separately over three event windows and also over eight event...
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Application of technical analysis on algorithmic trading
Šíla, Jan ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Křehlík, Tomáš (referee)
The thesis takes on the question of profitability of algorithmic trading based on trend and momentum indicators and examines whether or not it is possible to acquire systematic profits. It reviews the development of relevant literature over the last 100 years to determine whether the inner workings of the market can be quantified and plausibly modelled. On three major U.S. stock indices are then tested several different strategies to determine whether in the long- term, passive investment can be outperformed by active trading. Merit of the work lies in backtesting several strategies and interpreting the results according to unique characteristics of the indices.
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Stock Price Bubbles: Identification and the Effects of Monetary Policy
Koza, Oldřich ; Matějů, Jakub (advisor) ; Ryska, Pavel (referee)
This thesis studies bubbles in the U.S. stock market and how they are influenced by monetary policy pursued by the FED. Using Kalman filtering, the log-real price of S&P 500 is decomposed into a market-fundamentals component and a bubble component. The market-fundamentals component depends on the expected future dividends and the required rate of return, while the bubble component is treated as an unobserved state vector in the state-space model. The results suggest that, mainly in recent decades, the bubble has accounted for a substantial portion of S&P 500 price dynamics and might have played a significant role during major bull and bear markets. The innovation of this thesis is that it goes one step further and investigates the effects of monetary policy on both estimated components of S&P 500. For this purpose, the block- restriction VAR model is employed. The findings indicate that the decreasing interest rates have a significant short-term positive effect on the market-fundamentals component but not on the bubble. On the other hand, quantitative easing seems to have a positive effect on the bubble but not on the market-fundamentals component. Finally, the results suggest that the FED has not been successful at distinguishing between stock price movements due to fundamentals or the price misalignment.
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Economic analysis of moon phases on human behaviour
Klečková, Tereza ; Strielkowski, Wadim (advisor) ; Lelovská, Adriána (referee)
The moon and its lunar cycle is a theme that occurs in society since time immemorial. Does lunar cycle affect human life including its economic and social aspects? Do ordinary people and managers of large corporations act differently when the moon is full? Does consumer behavior change? Is at the time of the full moon rising crime and accidents? Can the effect of month on human behavior be scientifically tested? Although the above -mentioned topic may seem a bit bizarre I decided to process it in my thesis. Nowadays is popularization of science very important and widely used by for example the leading economic faculties of leading universities in the USA and the UK. This work attempts to answer the above questions and test the above mentioned context by using econometric methods. In this work we can read about the moon and myths and legends which are bind to it. The thesis presents several studies that have addressed the topic before, and their results. And then it will analyze available data from three basic areas of human behavior - crime, healthcare and business. The results which I reached are interesting and significantly confirm the influence of the lunar cycle in two of three selected aspects of human behavior - health and trade.
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