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Unemployment in the Czech Republic
Klečka, Michal ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Kvaček, Jan (referee)
This paper is aimed at analysis of unemployment in the Czech regions. The key thing is the effort to create a simple model which determinates unemployment in regions. To this, three basic factors are used - inflation, outcome and criminality as they represent fiscal, monetary and social policies. Firstly, the effects of these factors are tested separately by OLS to find their mutual correlation. The average effects of dependence between factors and unemployment in regions are also established by using panel regression. Original and static Phillip's curves are used to measure the impact of level of unemployment on the inflation. The expanded model of Phillip's curve and the dynamic model of natural level of unemployment are used to estimate natural levels of unemployment in regions. The difference version of Okun's law is used to estimate the impact of economy outcome on the level of unemployment. Subsequently, the extended model of Okun's law is used to distinguish the effect of economic cycle on this impact. Correlation of level of unemployment with criminality is measured by simple model, where the change of the first variable is determined by the change of the second variable. All this knowledge is used to create the complex model, which explains the change of the level of unemployment in...
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Phillips Curve in Conditions of the Czech Republic
Musilová, Simona ; Půža, Bedřich (referee) ; Novotná, Veronika (advisor)
The bachelor’s thesis is focused on the Phillips curve in conditions of the Czech economics. Validity of the substitution relationship between the rate of inflation and the unemployment rate is testing by regression analysis on real data of the Czech Republic during years 1996–2016. In order to better explain variability of the dependent variable, the model is expanded by inflation expectations, which corresponds to the development of the economic theory of the Phillips curve. After that the Phillips curve for the Czech Republic is constructed in Maple using the systems of differential equations.
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Validation of selected economic theories on macroeconomic data for the Czech Republic
Zoul, Lukáš ; Mirvald, Michal (advisor) ; Matula, Miloš (referee)
The main goal of the thesis is to explore selected economical hypotheses through theoretical conception applying macroeconomics data from the Czech Republic. This thesis includes the following hypotheses: budget deficits solved by increasing taxes, compromise between unemployment and inflation, low impact of budget deficits. To verify these hypotheses, there is a comparison with economic theories such as Laffer curve, which has showed that Laffer peak is at the level of 22 % taxation. Other used theory is the Phillips curve where correlation between inflation and unemployment rate is stronger based on yearly data than on monthly data. Theoretical model IS-LM has confirmed that multiplication effect could have caused the positive economic growth in 2010 and 2011. Even if economical hypothesizes are partially correct, they are not recommended for the government to determine their decisions. There are more efficient long-term solutions that can be used to solve challenges of the recent economic situation.
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Problems with the Phillips curve in developed economies
Krupička, Michal ; Babin, Jan (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee)
My bachelor thesis focuses on the problems of the Phillips curve. Theoretical part is monitoring the development of the Phillips curve. In this part I describe the process of examination of this problem, that had begun a long time before introduction to work of A. W. Phillips. There are also mentioned works related to the Phillips work that were published after his paper and also some of the critics of the model. In practical part I constructed models to verify validity of the Phillips curve. Data of the Czech Republic and the United States of America were used in this part. Conclusion of practical part confirms that the validity of the Phillips curve is quite limited and that the practical use of the Phillips curve to influence the economy is not possible with this model.
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Fiscal policy and analysis of unemployment in the Litoměřice region
Brůnová, Tereza ; Hřebík, František (advisor) ; Jitka, Jitka (referee)
This master's thesis deals with fiscal policy and the analysis of unemployment in the region of Litoměřice. The first section summarizes theoretical findings in the area of fiscal policy, unemployment, and the labour market. This section also describes specific elements of the labour market and the risk groups in it; forms and tools of fiscal policy; types of unemployment and its impacts; and tools for decreasing unemployment.
The practical section of this thesis provides the general characteristics of the region of Litoměřice. Unemployment in the region is explored according to age structure, length of unemployment, structures of available job positions and the degree of education achieved among unemployed individuals. In addition, this section compares the region of Litoměřice to the Ústí Region in terms of unemployment. By using an econometric model, the impacts of selected variables are quantified on the ratio of unemployed persons in the region of Litoměřice. The model contains quarterly data from 2010 to 2015. At the end of the practical section, the influences of individual variable models are expressed relatively via elasticity coefficients.
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Output-Inflation Trade-off After a Quarter of a Century of Inflation Targeting
Kamarád, Martin ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Kadeřábková, Božena (referee)
This thesis estimates the treatment effect of inflation targeting adoption on inflation, inflation variability, output, and output variability for 25 explicit inflation targeting countries. I implement the propensity score matching methodology that takes into account the problems of non-experimental nature, such as selection bias or selection on observable, and allows me to effectively mimic properties of randomized experiment and compute unbiased treatment effect estimates. I introduce a variety of propensity score matching methods that were recently developed in the treatment effect literature, including Nearest Neighbor, Radius matching, Kernel matching, and Inverse Probability Weighting. The results indicate that both industrial and developing inflation targeting countries exhibit lower inflation levels and at the same time higher output growth than non-targeting countries. The estimates are however in most cases statistically insignificant. Moreover, it appears that both industrial and developing countries achieve combination of lower inflation variability and output variability compared to non-targeting countries. Nonetheless, majority of the estimates are again statistically insignificant. The results are to a small extent sensitive to the choice of propensity score matching method. Radius matching with tight calipers (r=0.005, r=0.001) tends to provide the most reliable estimates. Balancing properties of the models are reasonable and compared to the previous research the standardised biases are quantitatively better.
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The Development of Unemployment Rate in Selected Region - Central Bohemia Region
Říhová, Andrea ; Brčák, Josef (advisor) ; Frydrych, Jakub (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with the unemployment rate develompent in the Central Bohemian Region. First part of the thesis defines terms related to unemployment and labour market and is based on studing professional literature.
Practical part of the thesis describes the develompent of unemployment rate in the Central Bohemian Region since 2005 to 2014 and it also analyzes the reasons of it. All data used in this part are taken from Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, Ministry of Finance, employment offices and the Czech Statistical Office.
A fractional aim of this writing is to compare the unemplyoment rate develompent between the already named Central Bohemian region and the rest of the Czech Republic. This is performed through the fractional structures of unemployment. Another part of the thesis deals with unemplyement rate development in selected areas of the Central Bohemian Region since 2005 to 2014.
Many figures and tables are used in this thesis for better ilustration There is also shown the forecast of a possible future development of unemployment rate in every section
The conclusion of this bachelor thesis is dedicated to current soulution of unemployment in the Central Bohemian Region and it also suggests other possible solutions to this problem in the Central Bohemian Region and Czech Republic.
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Development of unemployment in region of Jindřichův Hradec
Matějková, Kamila ; Brčák, Josef (advisor) ; Frydrych, Jakub (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with analysis of unemployment in reagon of Jindřichův Hradec. Thesis is devided into two parts, theoretical and analytical. In a first part of the bachelor thesis there are explained basic concepts which are related to unemployment.
In a second part there is an analysis of development of unemployment in a specific period and reason why was the unemployement going in that particular direction. Development of the unemployment in this region is compared to an average of unemployment in Czech Republic. Futherway, we compared developments between regions. Based on the analysis there are reccomended precautions for increase of unemployment and we predicted a development for the future.
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Econometric analysis of inflation in open economy
Rebrova, Yulia ; Formánek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Kuchina, Elena (referee)
This bachelor thesis is focused on an econometric analysis of the inflation in an open economy. The aim of this paper is to investigate factors which influence the price level. A priority is given to the analysis of Austrian and Czech economies and of their dependence on the dominant German economy. Different specifications of Phillips curve and Exchange Rate Pass-Through method are used to breakdown the inflation rate. Theoretical part of the thesis carefully summarizes already known facts about inflation and its measuring. Moreover, it includes a closer look at econometrical models which will be used in this paper. The models for each country are developed and compared in the last part of this thesis. Results show that economies of selected countries underline macroeconomic theory and the inflation rate can be expressed by Phillips curve whereas Exchange Rate Pass-Through models cannot explain the behavior of the price level well. This paper reveals the complexity of the topic.
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The Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Unemployment in the UK in the Second Half of the 20th Century
Veverka, Jaroslav ; Mirvald, Michal (advisor) ; Rod, Aleš (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to analyse the mutual relationship between the inflation rate and the rate of unemployment in the United Kingdom on quarterly based data 1962-1967. At first this thesis introduces papers and empirical studies of some important authors who formed the concept of Phillips curve. Furthermore, there are described also studies which criticize this macroeconomic concept. Within the regression analysis is researched the mutual relationship with aid of the linear, hyperbolical and the logarithmic regression model. The result of this thesis has confirmed the mutual inverse relationship between the inflation rate and the rate of unemployment in the analysed period of time which implies the existence of the Samuelson-Solow modification of the Phillips curve in the United Kingdom in 1962-1967.
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