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Forecasting Exchange Rates: A VAR Analysis
Mida, Jaroslav ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Ivanková, Kristýna (referee)
This thesis aims to out-of-sample forecast the USD/EUR exchange rate using four macroeconomic variables, namely ination, interest rate, unemployment rate and industrial production index. The model applied is the vector autoregressive model. We use monthly data for a period of 2002-2011 and use the data from 2012 in order to compare the forecast accuracy with the random walk, which is believed to outperform many models when forecasting for a short-time horizon, such as one year. We found out that the vector autogressive model beat the random walk in the period of one and three months, which was surprising. In the longer horizon of six, nine and twelve months, random walk, as expected, heavily outperformed vector autogressive model. The reasoning behind this could be that there was no clear trend in the USD/EUR exchange rate during this period.
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The application of finacial derivatives in bussines practise
Podhorná, Hana ; Kotík, Věroslav (referee) ; Meluzín, Tomáš (advisor)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is eliminating the foreign exchange risk in the given company by using financial derivatives. The thesis is divided to a theoretical and a practical section. The theoretical section is focused on the problems of foreign exchange risk, including a description of the main products and procedures that enable to manage these risks effectively. The practical section analyses the problem of exchange rate losses and evaluates the foreign exchange position of the company. The author tried to create suitable proposals for the possibilities of security. The conclusion of the thesis contains benefits that resulted from the obtained results of the given proposal.
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Model of Electronic Trading in International Interbank Foreign Exchange
Čapek, Jiří ; Kuderová, Eva (referee) ; Čižinská, Romana (advisor)
This bachelor’s thesis engages in investing in the foregin exchange market. It desribes recent portfolio of chosen currency pairs and characterizis their behaviour. It proposes an effective method of electronic trading using the trading platform. It explains how technical and fundamental analysis work. The main vehemence is layed on technical analysis and it’s technical indicators. In it’s concept it describes the decesive methods, which give us the signals when to open a trade and when to get out of it, in order to maximise our profits and minimise our losses.
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Design and Implementation of Automatic Trading System for Exchange Market
Doležal, Radek ; Jahoda, Michal (referee) ; Budík, Jan (advisor)
The subject of this diploma thesis is a design and implementation of an automated trading system for the forex market. It includes an analysis of the main concepts and methods of technical analysis and money management, which constitute an essential theoretical basis for the subsequent practical design of an automatic system. The objective of this work is a development of an automated trading system whose robustness and stability is tested by a walk forward analysis.
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Statistical Characteristics of Forex Data
Novák, Vlastimil ; Bartík, Vladimír (referee) ; Kreslíková, Jitka (advisor)
The object of master's thesis is to introduce to the financial derivatives and principals of trading on financial markets. We describe the methods used to search for arbitrage opportunities through statistical indicators and statistical characteristics, which are an integral part of the automatized trading systems. Analysis of the financial market is based on data derived from the interbank market.
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Heterogeneity and segmentation of participants on the Czech foreign exchange market
Paleček, Jiří ; Vejmělek, Jan (advisor) ; Šíma, Ondřej (referee)
The work focuses on the history and development of the foreign exchange market, and consequently the overall characteristics of the foreign exchange market. Then this work compares retail and wholesale foreign exchange market. In examining the volume and structure of the turnover on the foreign exchange market. Access to the information of individual entities, where wholesale participants have a huge benefit because of the many advantages, mainly financial benefits. Determining whether the market is centralized or decentralized, it depends on the subject, retail market is decentralized and wholesale is centralized. It was also examined the behavior of the marginal individual entities, there are large differences between small and large entities. And that's also true for their influence, but to this I came up with Noise Trader theory, which shows that the situation can be reversed and retail traders streamlines the market. The work points out that problem when retail market penetrate on the wholesale market. And finally, the work offers insights into the problem of the missing middle market, or a stronger segmentation of market. The last point is the nightly news, and how individuals respond to them.
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Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market
Králíková, Lenka ; Veselá, Jitka (advisor) ; Fičura, Milan (referee)
The main goal of this bachelor thesis is to test my own trading strategy based on technical indicators, to evaluate achived results and to make investment recommendations. The first part focuses on the foreign exchange market charakteristics, describes the foreign exchange market participants and foreshadows the main differences between three main analysis. Second part is dedicated to each single technical indicator, their basic characters and possibilities of use. Important part of this thesis is its practical part, in which I apply described theory not only from the technical side of view but also the psychological one, which is at least as important. This bachalor thesis contains united complex of essential informations for the novice investor.
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Foreign exchange interventions as an "unconventional" monetary policy tool
Lörinčík, Tomáš ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Jedlinský, Jakub (referee)
The thesis analyses the issue of foreign exchange interventions, discovers its historical conditionality and introduces them to the context of other monetary policy instruments. For the purpose of author`s own research, key event is represented by the last financial crisis which determined significant changes in the basic economic fundamentals of foreign exchange interventions on the global level. Synthetizing publicly available information current trends in the development of this phenomenon were identified. Thesis analyses foreign exchange interventions also from the microeconomic perspective. In this sense, the research subject was presented by central banks of two economies (Australia and Czech Republic) which actively used interventions on foreign exchange market in the past. In order to solve given hypotheses scientific studies and statistical data published by international organizations were used, for example IMF or BIS, but also official reports of central banks
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Psychology of an investor on the Forex market
Polnický, Martin ; Smrčka, Luboš (advisor) ; Schönfeld, Jaroslav (referee)
In the introduction, this dissertation about "Psychology of an investor on the Forex market" introduces to the reader the prerequisites for trading on the foreign exchange market. On a theoretical level, it deals mostly with fundamental, technical as well as psychological analysis of prediction of development of exchange rates on the Foreign Exchange Market. Theoretical part also includes an outline of basic criteria for choosing a Forex broker and introduction of a trading platform. Practical part of the dissertation focuses on comparing and choosing a broker, plus the process for opening a real trading account; creating a trading plan and strategy, which will be used to apply different tools and indicators of technical analysis of inter-day trading of EUR/USD pair. In the conclusion, trading system created by myself is evaluated and psychological phenomenon affecting investors' decision-making during real Forex trading. This dissertation deals only with Spot Forex market, because trading through FX brokers is done on the Spot market.
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