Fiskální politika a inflace: případ České republiky

Slaba, Martin

This thesis investigates the relationship between government spending and inflation in the Czech Republic. We estimate a block-restriction VAR model in several specifications. The model confirmed the prediction of the Fiscal Theory of Price Level, that a shock to government spending will produce an inflationary response. However, the impulse responses are in all specifications insignificant or borderline significant. Second part of the thesis utilizes a non- econometric analysis to examine the post-covid inflationary period. The conclusion of this analysis is that the expansionary government spending combined with a tax cut provided the population with significant disposable income at a time when the economic output was compressed and consumption was severely restricted due to the lockdowns. The forcibly delayed consumption lead to an unprecedented increase in savings of both household and firms. The drawdown of these savings once the restrictions were lifted created demand-side inflationary pressures. The supply-side shock that came with the the war in Ukraine only enhanced the already heightened inflation.

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