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The regional order in Asia-Pacific: The role of the joint Sino-Russian air patrols and the Dokdo/Takeshima dispute
Kim, Stella Celine ; Kaczmarski, Marcin (vedoucí práce) ; Ludvík, Jan (oponent)
This paper analyses the role of the joint Sino-Russian air patrols that took place annually since 2019 in the East China Sea and Sea of Japan. Asia-Pacific as a region shaped by the strategic competition of the United States (U.S.) and China is set to experience a shift in the regional order through an emerging Sino-Russian military partnership, which has managed to destabilize the American security architecture through its most recent air patrols. These joint air patrols fly not only routes over three highly relevant strategic locations but have also caused further friction between the U.S.' most important allies in the region: South Korea and Japan, over the defence of an unsettled territorial dispute of Dokdo/Takeshima, whose airspace was violated in the first joint air patrol. Through four case studies which capture variations in the warplanes, flight path and duration of the joint air patrols, and a lack of a coordinated response from both South Korea and Japan, a rift between the U.S.' most important allies in the region, that is being exploited by a rising Sino-Russian military partnership can be detected. This paper contributes to the research on the emerging Sino-Russian military alliance, the continuous Sino-U.S. strategic competition and the relevance of the disputed territory of...
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Adapting restrained military capabilities to the prospect of interstate conflicts: The cases of French and British defence planning
Sarfati, Joachim ; Ludvík, Jan (vedoucí práce) ; Jackson, Peter (oponent)
In the last two decades, Western militaries were largely shaped to address threats from non-state actors. Many European countries joined the United States in the so-called "war on terror", although on the backdrop of a steady decrease of their defence budgets, which started after the end of the Cold War. As deployments in these theatres are now coming to an end, the reduction in size of European militaries is being called into question, because of the growing concern for potential escalations towards armed conflicts against rival states. While the invasion of Ukraine launched in February 2022 by Russia prompted European states to pledge important resources to strengthening their arsenals, France, and to a lesser degree the United Kingdom, had already decided to increase their military budgets in previous months or years. This study focuses on the discourses, plans, and debates surrounding this agenda of military resurgence in France and the UK. Researchers interested in defence analysis have often focused on equipment plans to assess the preparation of forces to given threats. Defence planning, as an institutional practice, has also been a major object of study for academics. Finally, the roles of values and ideas in threat identification and defence policy have been an important strand of study in...
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The position of nuclear power within European energy security following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
Bracken, Stephen ; Ludvík, Jan (vedoucí práce) ; Butler, Eamonn (oponent)
This paper examines the contemporary position of nuclear energy within the wider European energy security framework in the shadow of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. This unprecedented event has thrown the international relations status quo off balance. The paper discusses the role that nuclear power carries out and whether there is potential for it to grow into a more commonly used source of energy generation. Supposed benefits from its utilisation are a strengthening of energy security across the EU, lower carbon emissions and reduced dependency from Russian imports. Further to this, the reasonings behind its feared image will be looked into while analysing proposed methods to soften its perception as we reach a turning point in deciding how best Europe can protect and maintain a secure and sustainable way of life. Incorporating collated groups of data and information from discourse and other forms of textual analysis, it is found that we are now witnessing a surge of interest in nuclear power. What was so recently seen as a fading industry of the past by some, appears to be on the rise due to successful results in countries that have prioritised the energy source, by those planning to build and extend the lifetimes of existing reactors and the work being done by individuals creating next...
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Currency warfare in civil war: The impact of the weaponisation and targeting of currencies in the Biafran war
Confidence, Jennifer Ezi-Nwa ; Dowd, Caitriona (vedoucí práce) ; Ludvík, Jan (oponent)
Currency warfare is an actor's use of monetary or military force against an enemy's monetary power. This could manifest in the form of counterfeiting, and currency change, among others. Currency warfare is used as part of a military campaign, either prior to a military conflict or implemented side by side with a military conflict. This kind of warfare plays a crucial role in cutting off the war financing capability of an enemy. Despite its strategic usefulness in military campaigns, our knowledge of currency warfare is poor, even more in internal conflict, because most of the available research focuses on international conflict. For this research, the focus is on civil war to identify how the currency changes by both the government and rebel group (Biafrans) helped to increase or decrease the duration and severity of the conflict. This study on the Biafran war case developed a currency warfare theory for lack of available theory to guide the research. The theory established certain strategic functions; bankruptcy, arms shortage, loss of territory, limited access to foreign currency, hunger and famine, and static conflict zone, as the themes that determine currency warfare's impact on severity and duration. Relying on this, findings indicate that the currency change by Nigeria helped shorten the...
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The economic warfare of the European Union against Russia: An assessment of the political effects
Montalti, Eugenio ; Ludvík, Jan (vedoucí práce) ; Alì, Antonino (oponent)
This research intercepts the need for a more in dept study of sanctions' effectiveness. While the US are well studied upon, the EU does not manage to obtain the same amount of academic attention. With the importance of the EU as economic and global actor, the way they adopt economy as a weapon must be investigated. This study aims at tackling this vacancy while further investing in the literature of the effectiveness of economic sanctions. Keywords European Union, Economic Warfare, Sanctions, Russia, Ukraine, Policies, Public statements
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Between the Exploitation and Benefit: International and Non-governmental Organisations in Intelligence Operations
Satkauskaite, Migle ; Pili, Giangiuseppe (vedoucí práce) ; Reinsberg, Bernhard (oponent) ; Ludvík, Jan (oponent)
In some operations, national intelligence agencies decide to use International and Non- governmental organisations (INGOs) as a cover for intelligence gathering or covert action. Publicised cases of such operations show that while it can be effective in achieving intelligence goals, these operations might bring negative consequences to both actors. Using INGOs in intelligence action can break international law, be regarded as immoral or ethically questionable by society, damage the reputation of INGO and reduce public trust in the intelligence community. As a result, intelligence agencies should avoid taking advantage of INGOs. However, if it is unavoidable, intelligence agencies should put all the necessary efforts, that these cases would stay classified.
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Tracking the Flow of Military Assets and Logistics for OSINT: The Case of the Syrian Civil War
Sutea, Ionut ; Jackson, Peter (vedoucí práce) ; Pili, Giangiuseppe (oponent) ; Ludvík, Jan (oponent)
Tracking the Flow of Military Assets and Logistics for OSINT: The Case of the Syrian Civil War July 2019 2338035 17116325 25113386 Presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of International Master in Security, Intelligence & Strategic Studies Word Count: 20,971 Supervisor: Peter Jackson Date of Submission: July 25, 2019 Table of Contents 1. Introduction............................................................................................................... 1 2. Theoretical Background .......................................................................................... 2 2.1. Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT).............................................................................. 3 2.1.1. What Is OSINT and Why Is It Important?...................................................................... 3 2.1.2. How To Exploit OSINT?................................................................................................... 6 2.1.3 At OSINT's Edge: Challenges, Limitations and Ethics............................................... 15 2.2. Military Logistics......................................................................................................... 18 2.2.1. What Are Military...
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Unwelcome Chinese Economic, Political, and Military Influence: How Australia Serves as an Example in Combating Chinese Influence
Swindall, Molly ; Munro, Neil (vedoucí práce) ; Biagini, Erika (oponent) ; Ludvík, Jan (oponent)
Chinese engagement worldwide has increased significantly as the country has continued to grow. With increased engagement militarily, economically, politically, etc. concerns have increased surrounding Chinese foreign influence in other countries, particularly Western countries. While concerns are wide-ranging, this dissertation uses a qualitative case study to examine influence concerns in three key areas in Australia and what Australia is doing to combat these influence concerns. The areas are economics (investments), politics (interference through political donations), and military (concerns over Chinese activities in the Pacific). Australia was selected due to its precarious position of being strongly connected to China economically, with China being Australia's top two-way trading partner. Since China doesn't separate trade and politics, Australia stands to lose when limiting Chinese influence, but this hasn't stopped the country from responding. Australia has passed many laws, introduced new regulations, announced new initiatives, and blocked certain high-profile investments to limit influence and influence concerns. Additionally, Australia can serve as a model to other countries with similar concerns.
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The Determinants of Chinese Civilian Nuclear Cooperation: A Comparative Analysis of China's Nuclear Export Strategy in Eastern Africa
Horne, Henrik ; Ludvík, Jan (vedoucí práce) ; Munro, Neil (oponent) ; Connolly, Catherine (oponent)
The global nuclear governance system is designed to prevent accidents and malicious actions involving nuclear materials, and to disallow the spread of nuclear weapons. In recent years, China has invested heavily in its nuclear industry and is set to overtake the United States as global nuclear leader, providing it substantial influence in nuclear governance and responses. This will have consequences for international security as it is unknown if China will prioritize security concerns over economic and political consideration, which could reduce the effectiveness of the nuclear governance system. A significant share of China's exports is targeted for countries in Africa and Asia, many located in volatile regions and without stable government structures. It is necessary for the West to respond to this challenge through cooperative measures and effective policies, but in order to do so it is imperative to first understand the drivers behind China's nuclear export strategy. This paper made the first in-depth examination of China's civilian nuclear cooperation and examined a series of defined hypotheses to understand its behaviour. It looked at Chinese nuclear exports to state in Eastern Africa and used comparative analyses to identify differences between those who receive nuclear aid and those who do...
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