|
|
An empirical estimate of the pre-crisis Taylor rule of the Fed using real-time data
Mrázek, Martin ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Kadeřábková, Božena (referee)
This thesis analyses the monetary policy of the Fed in the period before the financial and economic crisis 2007. The aim of this analysis is to investigate whether the monetary policy significantly deviated from the preceding one which, according to John Taylor, adhered to the Taylor rule. This analysis is performed using both revised and real-time data. I compare the monetary policy with various specifications of the Taylor rule. I also estimate a forward-looking Taylor rule. The results confirm the deviation from the Taylor rule. However, deviations were usual in the whole sample period. Estimated models do not indicate that the monetary policy before the crisis was different from the rest of the analyzed period.
|
|
|
Real-time versus revised data in estimating the Taylor rule for the Czech Republic
Beňo, David ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee)
The main task of this paper is to analyze the differences between estimates of Taylor rule in real-time and with revised data. Estimates of the Taylor rule for the Czech Republic are compared. The source of data is OECD real-time database. The analysis shows that the estimates in real-time and ex-post vary significantly. The average deviation is equal to 0.9 percentage points. The main cause is the estimation of the output gap in real-time. Parameters of estimated reaction function also depend on the type of used data. The rule of inflation targeting or natural growth is more suitable for the use in real-time.
|
|
|
Macroeconometric Model of Monetary Policy
Čížek, Ondřej ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Lukáš, Ladislav (referee)
First of all, general principals of contemporary macroeconometric models are described in this dissertation together with a brief sketch of alternative approaches. Consequently, the macroeconomic model of a monetary policy is formulated in order to describe fundamental relationships between real and nominal economy. The model originated from a linear one by making some of the parameters endogenous. Despite this nonlinearity, I expressed my model in a state space form with time-varying coefficients, which can be solved by a standard Kalman filter. Using outcomes of this algorithm, likelihood function was then calculated and maximized in order to obtain estimates of the parameters. The theory of identifiability of a parametric structure is also described. Finally, the presented theory is applied on the formulated model of the euro area. In this model, the European Central Bank was assumed to behave according to the Taylor rule. The econometric estimation, however, showed that this common assumption in macroeconomic modeling is not adequate in this case. The results from econometric estimation and analysis of identifiability also indicated that the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank has only a very limited effect on real economic activity of the European Union. Both results are influential, as monetary policy in the last two decades has been modeled as interest rate policy with the Taylor rule in most macroeconometric models.
|
|
|
Česká swapová křivka, ekonomické fundamenty a finanční trhy
Pohl, Martin ; Málek, Jiří (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Lukáš, Ladislav (referee)
We focus on Czech swap market in a broader context of economic and financial development and we provide extensive empirical evidence that swaps have many features of a "risk-free" asset. They are traded with sufficient liquidity and low transaction costs that make them attractive for investors. Swap curve dynamics may be decomposed into level, slope and curvature parameters known from bond markets.Level and slope parameter may be interpreted by Taylor rule like functions in terms of output gap and inflation. Level reflects mainly inflation expectations and its sensitivity to output gap is small. Slope parameter is highly sensitive to business cycle fluctuations and inflation deviation from CNB's target. Domestic monetary policy remains an important determinant of swap curve parameters with gradual market reaction. Czech swap rates are closely connected to Euro swap rates. We found level factors to be cointegrated and also slope and curvature exhibit strong sensitivity to Euro rates. Financial variables don't seem to have large impact on swap rates with the exemption of global equity markets, where we found positive correlation between level and SP500 returns. In contrast, Czech government bonds have many features historically connected to corporate bonds such as positive correlation with risky assets and business cycle fluctuations. Government bonds also showed large volatility and rising risk premia in the 2008/2009 financial crisis. Finally, we estimated forward premium and we found large and rising premium and limited support for expectation theory.
|
|
|
Consequences application uniform policy of ECB on euro area countries
Skrbek, Ondřej ; Babin, Jan (advisor) ; Mirvald, Michal (referee)
The main goal of the bachelory thesis is to verify impact of common monetary policy of European central bank with motto "one size fits all" on the credit growth in the Euro area. It means uniform settings of interest rate EONIA, which values I compare with country-specific policy rate based on Taylor rule. Panel data are included in the range of 2005-2011 for 4 countries with different economic maturity: France, Germany, Ireland and Spain. Using the OLS estimation I can confirm negative effect. It means, that lower interest rate, then the country-specific one, is pressing on the credit growth of countries in euro area and thereby negatively affects the economy of the state.
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
Monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System during financial and economic crisis
Babušák, Martin ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to evaluate the effectiveness of measures taken by the Federal Reserve System in response to the 2007 financial crisis that was later joined by economic crisis. It analyzes effects caused by modification of existing programs, creation of new credit programs, support of systemically important institutions by the Fed and programs of outright purchase of selected assets on the open market. The thesis also examines the behavior of the Fed in setting of a target interest rate in longer term, from 2000 to 2011. The thesis verifies the validity of the Taylor rule of monetary policy by using regression analysis. Appendix at the end of the thesis emphasizes the importance of the U.S. dollar in the current international monetary system and the associated implications for the external stability of the U.S. economy.
|
|
|
Heterogenous economic positions of eurozone members and common policy of ECB
Pekárek, Štěpán ; Pfeifer, Lukáš (advisor) ; Urban, Luděk (referee)
One of the core economic questions of present Europe is european debt crisis. This work focuses on analysis of situation of the Economic and Monetary Union of the EU using Taylor rule model. Outcome of the analysis is confirmation of hypotesis about a heterogeneity among member states concerning monetary policy. Optimal interest rates of individual states according to Taylor rule are not homogeneous and diverge from interest rate of European Central Bank. This signifies an heterogeneity in demands on common monetary policy. There are two groups of countries identified according to the extent of heterogeneity - periphery and core countries. Further this work builds up on the findings of model and discusses in depth their connections with current problems of monetary union. There are chosen three main areas: credit expansion, public finance and single currency.
|
guest ::
