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Being an Older Mother: Metamorphoses of Late Motherhood from the Foundation of Czechoslovakia up to the Present
Šimečková, Michaela ; Fialová, Ludmila (advisor) ; Kocourková, Jiřina (referee) ; Hašková, Hana (referee)
Being an Older Mother: Metamorphoses of Late Motherhood from the Foundation of Czechoslovakia up to the Present Abstract The doctoral thesis gives a macro-structural view of the metamorphoses of late motherhood, here defined as motherhood of women aged over 35, as they have occurred in the Czech lands between 1920 and 2015. The study examines to which extent the reflection of late motherhood in selected professional and feminine / lifestyle periodicals converges with the findings derived from demographic data analysis. For this purpose, a mixed methods research has been conducted to link the conclusions from quantitative analysis of demographic data (demographic analysis and binary logistic regression) to those from qualitative and quantitative media analyses (discourse and content analyses). As the study shows, the development of late motherhood in the Czech lands varies across a range of possible perceptions in the media, levels and fertility rates. The thesis shows a strong coherence between the perception of late motherhood in the media and conclusions drawn from the demographic data analysis, which are consistent for most of the observed years. According to the results of the analysis, with some simplification, five different types of late motherhood are determined. The first type, the "Experienced...
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Hurdle models in non-life insurance
Tian, Cheng ; Pešta, Michal (advisor) ; Branda, Martin (referee)
A number of articles only present hurdle models for count data. we are motivated to present hurdle models for semi-continuous data. Because semi- continuous data is also commonly seen in non-life insurance. The thesis deals with the parameterization of various hurdle models for semi-continuous data besides for count data in non-life insurance. Two components of a hurdle model are modeled separately. A hurdle component is modeled by a logistic regression. For a semi-continuous data, a continuous component is modeled by several various regressions. Parameters of each component are estimated through maximum likelihood estimation. Model selection is mentioned before theoretical approaches are applied on the vehicle insurance data. Finally, we get some predicted values based on the fitted models. The prediction gives insurance companies a general idea on setting premium but not accurate. 1
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Regional Convergence in the European Union: Do the Business Services Make the Difference?
Pintera, Jan ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Kopečná, Vědunka (referee)
Despite years of deepening economic integration among the states and regions of the European Union, empirical research remains inconclusive about speed of convergence across regions, if not its existence. This thesis provides novel evidence on convergence in the EU while focusing on development at regional level after the Great Recession. It uses recently developed log t convergence test by Phillips and Sul (2007). Our findings speak against the convergence in level of income per capita among the European regions and give us five clubs of regions converging in their income growth rates instead. Investigating further the geographical distribution of the convergence clubs, we confirm high inequality within the member states and find large continuous area of high convergence clubs in the urbanized part of Western Europe. Furthermore, we investigated the determinants of convergence club membership using Logistic Regression. The main explanatory variable of interest were Business Services (BS), a dynamic sector of the economy with presumably strong positive effect on regional innovative potential. We found positive effect of BS on membership in higher convergence clubs. Yet, this effect seems to diminish for the very highest club.
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Bankruptcy prediction models in the Czech economy: New specification using Bayesian model averaging and logistic regression on the latest data
Kolísko, Jiří ; Princ, Michael (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
The main objective of our research was to develop a new bankruptcy prediction model for the Czech economy. For that purpose we used the logistic regression and 150,000 financial statements collected for the 2002-2016 period. We defined 41 explanatory variables (25 financial ratios and 16 dummy variables) and used Bayesian model averaging to select the best set of explanatory variables. The resulting model has been estimated for three prediction horizons: one, two, and three years before bankruptcy, so that we could assess the changes in the importance of explanatory variables and models' prediction accuracy. To deal with high skew in our dataset due to small number of bankrupt firms, we applied over- and under- sampling methods on the train sample (80% of data). These methods proved to enhance our classifier's accuracy for all specifications and periods. The accuracy of our models has been evaluated by Receiver operating characteristics curves, Sensitivity-Specificity curves, and Precision-Recall curves. In comparison with models examined on similar data, our model performed very well. In addition, we have selected the most powerful predictors for short- and long-term horizons, which is potentially of high relevance for practice. JEL Classification C11, C51, C53, G33, M21 Keywords Bankruptcy...
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Machine Learning Methods for Credit Risk Modelling
Drábek, Matěj ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Málek, Jiří (referee)
This master's thesis is divided into three parts. In the first part I described P2P lending, its characteristics, basic concepts and practical implications. I also compared P2P market in the Czech Republic, UK and USA. The second part consists of theoretical basics for chosen methods of machine learning, which are naive bayes classifier, classification tree, random forest and logistic regression. I also described methods to evaluate the quality of classification models listed above. The third part is a practical one and shows the complete workflow of creating classification model, from data preparation to evaluation of model.
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The Estimation of Probability of Default Using Logistic Regression
Jiřičko, Pavel ; Dlouhá, Zuzana (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
The aim of the thesis was to build a probability prediction model for client loan repayment. First, the author selected suitable explanatory variables and explained these in detail in the thesis. The author examined various quantities both for qualitative variables (e.g. failure rates and scores) and quantitative variables (e.g. means and standard deviations) describing individual categories. The predictions were done by the use of logistic regression. The estimated coefficients of individual explanatory variables were examined in terms of their statistical significance. The author also described the impact of individual explanatory variables on the probability of a clients default. The probabilities were calculated for two clients with specific values of explanatory variables. The author managed to build a model that can be used to predict probability of client loan repayment defaults.
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Analysis of failed studies at universities in the Czech Republic
Ptáčková, Veronika ; Mazouch, Petr (advisor) ; Hulík, Vladimír (referee)
The master thesis deals with failed studies at universities in the Czech Republic. The first part is focused on literary research, on explanation of theoretical terms and on statistical methods, which are subsequently applied in the analytical part. These are decision trees and logistic regression that helped to determine the influence of factors on studies without graduation. The aim of this master thesis is to find significant factors, to compile a profile of failed students and to suggest the measures which could reduce their elimination from tertiary education.
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Mediation analysis in statistics
Horáková, Lucie ; Hendl, Jan (advisor) ; Soukup, Petr (referee)
Diploma thesis "Mediation Analysis in Sociology" deals with mediation analysis and possibilities of its application in sociology, depending on the type of the dependent variable that enters the analysis. In the first case the dependent variable is continuous - in this case the SPSS software and its PROCESS add-on are used to directly analyse the mediation. In the second case the dependent variable that enters the analysis is binary - the PROCESS add-on doesn't allow this option; therefore, the analysis is performed in SPSS software by the set of linear and logistic regressions according to the Baron & Kenny method. Two case studies from the field of sociology, GSS (General Social Survey) and ISSP (International Social Survey Programme), are used in the thesis and the consequences of the transition from continuous dependent variable to binary are examined using the secondary analysis of these data.
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Fertility postponement in the Czech Republic and selected European countries in the period 1990−2015
Tovarová, Lenka ; Kurtinová, Olga (advisor) ; Šťastná, Anna (referee)
Fertility postponement in the Czech republic and selected European countries in the period 1990−2015 Abstract We have been able to observe the trend of shifting of maternity to later periods of life in European countries since the second half of the 20th century. However crucial for this thesis is to determine whether there have been disparity in delaying of maternity between selected Eastern European (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland) and Western European (Germany and Austria) countries since 1990 till present. The goal of this work is to find the relationship among setting of family policies, fertility rate of older women and respondents' views. In the first part of this thesis are outlined basic theories explaining postponing of maternity. There are also listed consequences related to the late maternity. The thesis touches a topic of family policies which influence the phenomenon of late maternity. It presents several fundamental tools of family policies and compares them among selected countries. The second part focuses on a description of demographic indicators that demonstrate the shift in timing of maternity. The main analysis in this thesis is a logistic regression, which explains respondent's views on issues related to a harmonization of family and employment by selected explanatory variables from...
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