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The Use of Artificial Intelligence on Commodity Markets
Volf, Petr ; Geroč, Ján (referee) ; Dostál, Petr (advisor)
Tato diplomová práce se zabývá problematikou obchodování na komoditních trzích. Řešení problematiky spočívá ve využití umělé inteligence, konkrétně neuronových sítí, k technické analýze vývoje ceny vybrané komodity a snaze o co nejpřesnější predikci budoucího vývoje ceny pro podporu investičního rozhodování. Model neuronové sítě je vytvořen a použit pro predikci v programu MATLAB.
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Small investor view into comodity derivatives
Prokopec, Michal ; Tichá, Jana (referee) ; Sojka, Zdeněk (advisor)
This thesis deals with investing into commodity assets through financial and commodity derivates. In the first section there are introduced single commodities and their historical price trends. There are further analysed relevant financial products, their positives and negatives. Practical section carries out an analyse of current state of the commodity market and makes the prediction of the future development. Finally there are mentioned different sorts of risk investors recommendations.
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Analysis of Exchange Rates (Commodity Exporting and Importing Countries)
Slabý, Pavel ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Metrah, Samy (referee)
This bachelor thesis´s objective is to analyze a possible relationship between exchange rates of selected countries and prices of commodities that these countries export. The thesis aims to describe this relationship and to quantify it. The selected countries are Canada, Japan, Norway, Australia, Zambia and Burundi. This thesis first describes theoretically the relationships between the exchange rates and fundamental quantities. The method of empirical analysis is described in the second part. Correlation and regression analysis is carried out and some problems that I have encountered during the econometric analysis are described as well. I study the aforementioned relationship on monthly data of nominal effective exchange rates from 2000 to 2015 in case of Canada, Japan, Australia and Norway. In case of Zambia and Burundi I study the relationship on yearly data of real effective exchange rates from 1980 to 2014. During my analysis I learned that these exchange rates really show some dependence on the commodity prices. The relationship is strongest in case of Norwegian Krone and oil prices. On the other hand the relationship is the weakest in case of Japanese Yen and oil prices.
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How Financial Markets Assess the State of Major Economies
Němeček, Josef ; Jílek, Josef (advisor) ; Czesaný, Slavoj (referee)
In accordance with its main goal, the main thesis shows which published data and indicators contemporary financial markets use to assess the state of major economies and forecast their short-term future development. Using Bloomberg as the primary source, the thesis provides a detailed analysis of the indicators and surveys sought by finance professionals when assessing the performance of the economy in the United States, the euro-zone (with emphasis on Germany) and, in the context of the impact on the global economy and markets, in China and Japan. A preliminary hypothesis about the similarity or closeness between the theoretical view and the practical approach of financial markets has been refuted. Instead, after close scrutiny and detailed analysis, we have established that financial markets put great emphasis on forward-looking indicators and monetary policy. This emphasis was confirmed by a survey of local investors. Using expert opinion and analysis, the thesis charts an overview of select economic indicators and their over- (payrolls, consumer sentiment) or undervaluation (regional Fed activity indexes, CFNAI).
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Odhad zajišťovacího poměru (Hedge Ratio) v řízení zásob
Máková, Barbora ; Černý, Michal (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
Companies dependent on commodities for their production have to deal with volatile commodity prices and should employ measures for risk reduction as unfavourable spot price development may cause significant losses. A useful tool for diminishing the risk is hedging on futures market; however, this approach faces a crucial question of optimal hedge ratio determination (ratio between spot and futures units). Our thesis examines nine different ways of optimal hedge ratio estimation (naive, Sharpe, mean extended Gini coefficient, generalized semivariance, value at risk, and minimum variance through OLS, error correction, GARCH, and bivariate GARCH models) and evaluates their efficiency using the data on eight different commodities. The results differ across the respective commodities and cannot be generalized. Two conclusions resulting from the analysis refer to performance of naive and OLS hedge ratios and constant vs time varying hedge ratios. We find that complex hedge ratios, such as bivariate GARCH or VaR hedge ratios, do not outperform naive and OLS hedge ratios and that the results of constant hedge ratios are mostly as good as results of time-varying hedge ratios.
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Investing in commodities
Václavík, Michael ; Drozen, František (advisor) ; Šípek, Ladislav (referee)
The purpose of this bachelor thesis is analysis of selected commodity -- cocoa beans, evaluation of the possibilities of investing in the commodity with focus on the most famous financial derivatives -- futures. The first chapter, so called theoretical part is focused on matters of commodity market -- stock market and its participants, analysis of the market and investment opportunities on the commodities market, especially with futures. The second chapter focuses on the cocoa beans market analysis, the most important participants and with the help of fundamental analysis the most important factors influencing supply and demand for the cocoa beans, their impact on the price development. The conclusion summarizes the basic knowledge and evaluates investment opportunities primarily for the smaller investor.
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A Yield and Risk Evaluation of Representative Commodities on the World Market
KLIMEŠOVÁ, Pavla
The topic of the bachelor thesis is a yield and risk evaluation of representative commodities on the world market. A literary work is focused on terms as commodities and a financial market. Commodities are divided into groups and the term of stock exchange is defined there. In the second part, there are mentioned terms as an investment, yield, risk, liquidity and connections among them. Furthermore there is paid attention to an analysis of time series. Following parts are analyses of commodities price development, evaluation of seasonality and a risk evaluation. The part after is about an exchange rate for Euro to U.S. Dollar.
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The position of fairtrade products on the regional market
ZEMENOVÁ, Edita
The fair trade is a concept that comes with better conditions for producers of the developing countries. It aims to improve their social, economic and environmental profile. If we want to describe fair trade market in South Bohemia Region, we have to deal with points of sale and customer's preferences. The growing phenomenon of the fair trade is also caused by many campaigns and projects supporting its philosophy.
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Commodities trading from the perspective of a beginning trader
Sodoma, Jiří ; Smrčka, Luboš (advisor) ; Zámečník, Petr (referee)
The thesis focuses on commodities trading on the exchange. It summarizes the author's knowledge on the issue and presents a comprehensive procedure, how to work with the markets. It analyses aspects of psychology and money-management. The thesis guides the reader through the work of business plan on the base of back-test and applying the day-trading strategy to the simulation mode of the futures e-mini Nasdaq-100.
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Evaluation of business strategies in commodity markets
PALAMARČUK, Igor
This thesis is focused on the evaluation of trading strategies for trading in commodity markets. To meet the objectives of this work were selected three technical indicators: Stochastic oscillator, RSI and CCI indicator. These indicators were applied to trade in three selected commodities: corn, rice and wheat. Subsequently was evaluated an application of the indicators on the selected commodities.
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