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Bankruptcy Prediction Modelling in the Manufacturing Industry
Tichá, Barbora ; Bartoš, Vojtěch (referee) ; Karas, Michal (advisor)
This diploma thesis deals with the issue of bankruptcy prediction of small and medium-sized enterprises operating in the manufacturing industry in selected Central European countries. The theoretical part of the thesis defines the concepts related to the prediction of bankruptcy and methods of model creation. The analytical part of the work includes testing the accuracy of selected bankruptcy model by other authors and creating a new bankruptcy model. The accuracy of the newly created model is then compared with the accuracy of selected models by other authors.
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Srovnání modifikací predikčních bankrotních modelů
Bednář, Ondřej
The goal of this theses is to compare existing bankruptcy prediction models with its new modification unique for this work, which could perform better than its competition. Proposed model is logit-based and consists of the combination of variables used in Altman´s and Ohlson´s models. The final model is estimated for medium sized companies in EU which aren´t publicly traded. This model achieved prediction accuracy of 97,1% (97.4% for healthy and 91.1% for bankrupt compa-nies) on its original dataset. As expected, when verified on new dataset, the accu-racy dropped but still reaches 97.1% (99.3% for healthy and 37.7% for bankrupt companies). The model is compared with its competition (original and modified version of Ohlson´s and partially Altman´s models) and it is shown that it has higher prediction accuracy.
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To which extent are private pensions in life insurances protected in case of bankruptcy?
Fiala, Johannes
The German State promotes the setting up of private pension insurance from a tax perspective, in particular via life insurance. This is done with the aim of citizens not being dependent on social benefits when they reach old age (principle of subsidization). This is contrasted with the interests of the creditors of the citizens whose monetary claims are protected by the protection of property requirement of the constitution. The building up of assets and asset protection among citizens therefore involves tension between the interests of creditors and realizing retirement pension assets. Taking life insurance as an example, the investigation shows that protection of creditors in Germany is predominant. Protection of the life insurance asset dominates in Switzerland and even more so in Liechtenstein. From the point of view of welfare economics, Germany offers assets protected against enforcement, which only protects pension payments below the subsistence level. Life insurance in Switzerland and Liechtenstein offer "homo economicus" -- above all the self-employed -- additional asset protection for taking care of the family.
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Bankruptcy prediction model
Kratochvilová, Monika ; Bartoš, Vojtěch (referee) ; Karas, Michal (advisor)
This diploma thesis is focused on the evaluation of the efficiency of selected bankruptcy models in the Czech Republic. In the theoretical part the basic terminology and methodology of bankruptcy models creation are introduced. In addition are mentioned, model constraints, an overview of the indicators used, and information about model accuracy. This part also presents analyzed models and methods of assessing the reliability of bankruptcy models. In the practical part, the reliability of selected bankruptcy models is evaluated and a new bankruptcy model is built.
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Phenomenon of Debt Relief in Context of Changes from 1 July 2017
SEIDLOVÁ, Denisa
This bachelor thesis describes the changes related to the debt relief, that presents the amendment of Insolvency Act No. 64/2017 Coll., which is effective from 1 July 2017, amending Act No. 182/2006 Coll., Bankruptcy and the Methods of its Resolution. This is an important amendment, which transforms a lot of fundamental paragraphs of the Insolvency Act. The thesis provides the essential introduction to the topic of the insolvency proceedings and the debt relief analyzing the current legal regulation of this institute. The changes of Insolvency Act are described and evaluated using analytical method in the context of past and future development. In the practical part is proposed model of debt relief process using process maps.
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Decision making based on partially known decision trees
Poláček, Tomáš ; Dostál, Petr (referee) ; Koutský, Jaroslav (referee) ; Váchal, Jan (referee) ; Dohnal, Mirko (advisor)
There is a wide range of different algorithms for insolvency prediction. The complex concept of insolvency proceedings from the point of view of both parties (debtor versus creditor) and from the point of view of the macroeconomics in this dissertation is new. It is often very difficult to generate forecasts using numerical quantifiers and traditional statistical methods. The reason is the lack of input data. Therefore, the work uses trend analysis tools based on the least information intensive quantifiers, ie trends, increasing, constant, and decreasing. A trend model solution is a set of scenarios where a set of variables is quantified by these trends. All possible transitions between the scenarios are generated and plotted in transition graphs. The oriented transition graph has as a node a set of scenarios, and as a branch the transitions between the scenarios. The given path through the transition graph describes any possible future and past behavior of the insolvency system being investigated. The Transition graph is a complete list of trend-based forecasts. The heuristics for determination of the payoff values from the insolvency proceedings applicable to the decision tree tools and the generated transition graphs from trend analyzes are also presented and used in the thesis. A nine-dimensional model serves as a case study. Vague variables are used in models that may have a major impact on the entire insolvency process, eg greed level and political situation.
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Bankruptcy prediction modelling in manufacturing branch
Kulkusová, Martina ; Kuběnka,, Michal (referee) ; Karas, Michal (advisor)
The diploma thesis is aimed at the problematic within the prediction of bankruptcy of companies operating in manufacturing industry in Czech Republic. There are defined terms related to the topic, methods of creating bankruptcy models and selected bankruptcy models in the theoretical part. Analytical part includes testing of the selected bankruptcy models. Thereafter a new bankruptcy model is created, which is subsequently tested and its accuraccy is compared to models from other authors.
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Accounting-based credit scoring models - The Altman Z-score
Dibon, Michael ; Čornanič, Aleš (advisor) ; Kukačka, Jiří (referee)
This Bachelor thesis is focused on accounting-based credit scoring models, predominantly on Altman (1968) Z-score. We examine the relevance of the Z-score model on European publicly traded companies over the period 2012 - 2017. Moreover, we analyze whether it is important to calibrate original models as well as we test the performance of models given different misclassification costs. Our results suggest that Altman original Z-score model is still, after 50 years of existence, relevant in the European after-crisis environment. Further, we found evidence that re-estimation of the model is unnecessary and could even cause harm to model performance. Finally, the performance of models seems to be stable given not equal misclassification costs, as the more accurate models from ROC analysis reported better results in an economic test. Keywords Z-score, accounting-based models, credit score, Altman, financial ratios, bankruptcy, ROC, Europe
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The current effectivness of bankruptcy prediction models in the conditions of Czech Republic
Kratochvilová, Monika ; Bartoš, Vojtěch (referee) ; Karas, Michal (advisor)
This bachelor thesis is aimed on evaluation of effectiveness of selected bankruptcy models in the Czech Republic environment. In the theoretical part are introduced analyzed models and methods used to model analysis. Here is explained the concept of bankruptcy, its origin and history, the definition of financial analysis and its methods. This section also describes a description of selected bankruptcy models and their limited reporting ability. In the practical part, the reliability of selected models is first evaluated and subsequently changes are proposed to improve reliability
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