Název:
Klam horké ruky v českém sportovním sázkařském trhu
Překlad názvu:
Hot hand bias in Czech sports betting market
Autoři:
Čakan, Jakub ; Kukačka, Jiří (vedoucí práce) ; Kmeťková, Diana (oponent) Typ dokumentu: Bakalářské práce
Rok:
2024
Jazyk:
eng
Abstrakt: [eng][cze] This thesis investigates behavioral biases, specifically the "hot hand" bias, in the Czech sports betting market. Further, it explores two hypotheses: whether the Czech sports betting market efficiently incorporates all relevant information into the odds and the impact of the "hot hand" belief on bettor behavior. The study employs weighted and ordinary least squares estimation, respectively, revealing that while bookmaker's odds efficiently reflect comprehensive infor- mation, confirming market efficiency, bettors display significant "hot hand" bias. More precisely, it leads bettors to disproportionately favor teams on win- ning streaks, indicating an overreaction to recent team performances and an inefficiency on the part of bettors. Additionally, the thesis evaluates the prof- itability of betting strategies aimed at exploiting these biases. It does not find such strategies consistently yielding profits, highlighting the complex nature of betting markets and the difficulty of capitalizing on behavioral biases. This research enhances the understanding of behavioral biases in sports betting, il- lustrating the interaction between bookmaker precision and bettor irrationality within the Czech betting landscape. JEL Classification C31, G14, G17, G41 Keywords market efficiency, sports betting, hot hand, be- havioral bias...Tato práce se zabývá behaviorálními vlivy, konkrétně přesvědčením
Klíčová slova:
Behavioral bias; betting spread; hot hand
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