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Original title:
Integrated national-scale assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture: the case of the Czech Republic
Authors: Arbelaez Gaviria, Juliana ; Boere, E. ; Havlík, P. ; Trnka, Miroslav
Document type: Papers
Conference/Event: MendelNet 2021, Brno (CZ), 20211110
Year: 2021
Language: eng
Abstract: In recent years, investigating climate change impacts in the agricultural sector at the national level has become a priority for adaptation decision-making. Most of these studies quantify the impacts\nof biophysical effects and often ignore the cross-sectoral interactions and economic effects on relative competitiveness, international trade, global food supply, and food prices for the Czech Republic. Ignoring future productivity changes globally under climate change scenarios can underestimate or overestimate climate change impacts at the national level. Here, we use GLOBIOM-CZE, a global economic model, as part of a climate change impact assessment framework to evaluate the impacts on the Czech agricultural sector in terms of environmental and economic indicators. By comparing with the baseline, the ensemble of scenarios suggests a decrease in crop area and production while increasing grassland, positively affecting livestock production by mid-century. Corn and barley show the most adverse response in production and area, while rapeseed increases under scenario RCP 8.5 with CO2 fertilization effect. Livestock products production is projected to increase, especially bovine meat and milk, as within RCP 8.5, no constraints are placed on growing greenhouse gas emissions.
Keywords: climate change impacts; Czech agriculture; global assessment model
Project no.: EF16_019/0000797
Funding provider: GA MŠk
Host item entry: MendelNet 2021: Proceedings of 28th International PhD Students Conference, ISBN 978-80-7509-821-4
Note: Související webová stránka: https://mendelnet.cz/archive.php?secid=11&mag=mnt&vol=2021&no=1
Institution: Global Change Research Institute AS ČR (web)
Document availability information: Fulltext is available at the institute of the Academy of Sciences.
Original record: https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0341473
Permalink: http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-521747
The record appears in these collections:
Research > Institutes ASCR > Global Change Research Institute
Conference materials > Papers
Authors: Arbelaez Gaviria, Juliana ; Boere, E. ; Havlík, P. ; Trnka, Miroslav
Document type: Papers
Conference/Event: MendelNet 2021, Brno (CZ), 20211110
Year: 2021
Language: eng
Abstract: In recent years, investigating climate change impacts in the agricultural sector at the national level has become a priority for adaptation decision-making. Most of these studies quantify the impacts\nof biophysical effects and often ignore the cross-sectoral interactions and economic effects on relative competitiveness, international trade, global food supply, and food prices for the Czech Republic. Ignoring future productivity changes globally under climate change scenarios can underestimate or overestimate climate change impacts at the national level. Here, we use GLOBIOM-CZE, a global economic model, as part of a climate change impact assessment framework to evaluate the impacts on the Czech agricultural sector in terms of environmental and economic indicators. By comparing with the baseline, the ensemble of scenarios suggests a decrease in crop area and production while increasing grassland, positively affecting livestock production by mid-century. Corn and barley show the most adverse response in production and area, while rapeseed increases under scenario RCP 8.5 with CO2 fertilization effect. Livestock products production is projected to increase, especially bovine meat and milk, as within RCP 8.5, no constraints are placed on growing greenhouse gas emissions.
Keywords: climate change impacts; Czech agriculture; global assessment model
Project no.: EF16_019/0000797
Funding provider: GA MŠk
Host item entry: MendelNet 2021: Proceedings of 28th International PhD Students Conference, ISBN 978-80-7509-821-4
Note: Související webová stránka: https://mendelnet.cz/archive.php?secid=11&mag=mnt&vol=2021&no=1
Institution: Global Change Research Institute AS ČR (web)
Document availability information: Fulltext is available at the institute of the Academy of Sciences.
Original record: https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0341473
Permalink: http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-521747
The record appears in these collections:
Research > Institutes ASCR > Global Change Research Institute
Conference materials > Papers
Record created 2023-03-28, last modified 2024-04-27