Mertonův model kreditního rizika a jeho použitelnost v České republice

Peška, Martin

Credit risk is the most important risk that financial institutions all around the world have to face. Even though the credit risk consists of several components, none are moreimportant and more difficult to measure than the probability of default. In my diploma thesis "The Applicability of Merton's Credit Risk Model in the Czech Republic" I take a closer look at several methods of measurement of default probability. I start with the traditional accounting-based methods (Altman's Z and Ohlson's O) and present the methodology of credit ratings. But the main focus of this work lies on the Merton model, which derives the probabilities of default for publicly traded companies mainly from the prices and volatility of equity. I discuss the model's assumptions, derive the key formulas, give step-by-step directions for its actual implementation and discuss thoroughly the model'sadvantages, limitations, improvements and previous empirical tests of model quality. Building on this theoretical ground, I compute the Merton-implied probabilities of default for Czech companies that are listed (and actively traded) on the Prague Stock Exchange. I compare the obtained results with the traditional indicators of credit risk, Altman's Z- and Ohlson's O- Scores with both original and updated coefficients, and with...

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