Vyhodnocení účinnosti nekonvenčních nástrojů měnové politiky ve vybraných zemích- VP-VAR přístup

Bandžak, Denis

This thesis applies time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility to assess the effectiveness of quantitative easing in time for the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve System between the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic. We find pronounced and statistically significant response of GDP and level of implied stock market volatility to a QE shock whereas the response of CPI is feeble and statistically insignificant. We argue that this does not necessarily imply that there is no effect of QE on CPI but rather that our model was not able to detect it. We believe that this may be due to inflation expectations channel which our model did not account for. This can be reassessed with a TVP-FAVAR model which is more suitable for such an analysis as it can encompass a larger set of variables. Moreover, apart from the US, we report increasing effectiveness of QE in time. This is opposed by the researchers who believe that QE has rather decreasing effectiveness in time because it is more efficient during economic distress and then its efficiency tends to decrease during normal times. We explain this deviation by citing other unconventional monetary tools such as credit easing, forward guidance or negative...

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