Ekonometrické metody detekce změn

Dvoranová, Romana

Detection of structural changes in time series is a topic with increasing pop- ularity among econometricians over the last decades. The main aim of this thesis was to review and compare the classical and modern econometric meth- ods of structural change detection and unit root testing. A recent method for testing a one-time break in at most linear trend function of a series without prior knowledge about the stationary or unit root nature of the error compo- nent proposed by Perron and Yabu (2009b) was studied. Subsequently, it was combined with the unit root test that allows for a break in trend proposed by Kim and Perron (2009) to examine the nature of the error component. All the methods for change detection and unit root testing were compared in a Monte Carlo simulation study that indicated significant improvement in power of the Perron-Yabu and Kim-Perron tests against most alternatives compared to the classical methods. However, all tests demonstrated poor performance in case of a quadratic trend function. Finally, the tests were employed in a practical ex- ample to examine the properties of the quarterly GDP time series of the Czech Republic. 1

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