Vliv efektivity a věrnosti armád na velikost změn režimu v arabských státech během Arabského jara

Mičko, Branislav

The Arab spring largely transformed the entire Arab world. In almost every country a major or minor protests erupted against their respective regimes. However, results of these protests differ. An element present in every case is the effort of any given regime to suppress the protests violently. The aim of this work is therefore to study the extent to which the character of the particular armies affected the regime change in the examined states. To this end, the altered ends-ways-means paradigm is employed to identify the indicators used to establish the effectiveness and loyalty of the particular armies. Subsequently, the hybrid regimes typology is used to compare the changes in studied states and then define the degree of regime change. Finally, the Kendall rank correlation is utilized to determine the level of association between two examined phenomena. The results suggest a possibility of strong relation between the effectiveness and loyalty on one hand and regime change on the other. This result points to the need of further inquiry into the relation between army characteristics and democratisation processes and thus, even in spite of possible deficiencies in used indicators, partly contributes to the debate on army role in the authoritarian regimes in the Middle East.

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