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Is import of goods from european countries to Czech republic more or less influenced by changes in nominal and real exchange rates than in non european countries?
Vereš, Jan ; Stroukal, Dominik (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyses the connection between import of goods from foreign countries to Czech Republic and the exchange rate changes. The initial hypothesis of this paper is to prove that the depreciation of domestic currency has positive influence on balance of trade balance. For this purpose there is eight econometric models which were created by using time series from years 2003 to 2016. These models are divided in pairs among four chosen countries. For each country two models were created that follow the development of trade balance between Czech Republic and one of the countries in two different time frames. All the models always use the real effective exchange rate, growth rate of GDP for Czech Republic and growth rate of GDP for one of the countries as explanatory variable. It is connected with the second task of this thesis, which is the analysis of the differences in the behaviour of the models that belong to the countries which are members of the EU and these that are not. The aim is to find out whether the existence of tariffs on imported goods from countries out of the EU causes visible differences in the behaviour of the variables that were included in the models. Based on the outcomes of all eight models the main hypothesis has been proved right for three out of four countries. In the models for Germany, China and France the relation of real exchange rate and trade balance came out as positive in long term, in short term the outcome was ambiguous. The second question of this thesis has been answered, but its added value is questionable. The final models for each state do show some noticeable differences and they can be used to determine if the influence of the change of exchange rates on trade balance is smaller or bigger in the countries where tariffs are used. On the other hand, from the results we can learn that the sample of only four countries is insufficient for the deduction of any conclusions.
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The consequences of the monetary reforms in Czechoslovakia in 1953
Martincová, Petra ; Chalupecký, Petr (advisor) ; Szobi, Pavel (referee)
The thesis focuses on monetary reform in Czechoslovakia in 1953. It concentrates especially on the impact of monetary reform on the population. Based on the hypothesis that the economic situation of the state and of the population has not improved as the monetary reform planned. The thesis describes postwar period of Czechoslovakia for a better evaulating and understanding of the monetary reform. The conclusion of the thesis is that monetary reform didn´t increase economic growth and damaged greatly all social strata of the population. The way how the monetary reform was proclaimed caused loosing population´s confidence in the government and in the currency.
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Economic policy of National front government
Bočák, Jakub ; Szobi, Pavel (advisor) ; Chalupecký, Petr (referee)
The bachelor thesis is focused on economic policy of Czechoslovakia after 1946 up to the rejection of participation in the Marshall plan. Its hypothesis is that development of economic policy was inevitably headed for the transition to a centrally planned economy. At first it focuses on formation of National Front of Czechs and Slovaks which meant a considerable restriction of democracy. After parliamentary elections in 1946 thesis focuses on description of two-year economic plan which was an important instrument of economic policy of the National Front. The last part of thesis describes the circumstances of refusing to participate in the Marshall Plan. The main conclusion of the thesis is that due to political situation was possible other development but transition to centrally planned economy.
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The prohibition of gambling in Czech cities and their economic efficiency since 2010
Lišková, Magdaléna ; Skopeček, Jan (advisor) ; Zeman, Martin (referee)
The bachelor thesis is about an evaluation of economic efficiency of prohibition of gambling in selected Czech cities since 2010. The theoretical part contains a definition of basic terms, a chapter about social costs and it also deals with a prohibition and the shadow economy. The practical part contains chapters about current legislation, about gambling market in the Czech Republic, next chapter is about methodology and at the end of this part there is the evaluation of economic efficiency. This chapter deals with an explanation why we can call the prohibition inefficient. It is also a resume of the thesis which is back up an argument of progress of total social costs and total revenues. The bachelor thesis, in spite of other Czech papers, works with presumption that the social costs are produced by pathological gamblers and it deals just with the original social costs. That is the reason why the thesis provides an original quantification of the social costs and new view on problems which are connected with regulation of gambling.
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Tax and legal issues of real-estate business in Austria
Banctel, Kristýna ; Filipová, Vladimíra (advisor) ; Drozen, František (referee)
The purpose of this study is to compare tax and civil-law issues concerning property business in Austria and in Czech Republic in 2016 and to investigate the efficiency of the current legislation against the real estate bubble. The theoretical part of this study contains selected demographic and price statistics concerning real estate in both countries and focuses on the description of the existing law currently in effect in both compared countries. The practical part analyses tax and transactions costs that concern property trading and a comparison of possibilities of amortisations and rentability of a rented flat in both countries.
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Economy of Chile in 1960s and 1970s with Accent on Market Reforms after 1973
Strejčková, Klára ; Pekárek, Štěpán (advisor) ; Ševčík, Miroslav (referee)
This bachelor thesis puts the stress on the analysis of economic reforms approved in Chile in the 60's and 70's years of the 20th century. The focus of this work is profoundly dedicated to the analysis of two important macroeconomic indicators: developments of inflation and trade exports, bearing in mind the context of the coup in 1973 which is seen as a direct consequence of the communist rule of the Salvador Allende's Cabinet (1970-1973). The Allende's Cabinet strove to transform the Chilean economic society into a socialist one. The bachelor thesis has validated a hypothesis stating that the pro-market reforms approved after 1973 led to diversification of the Chilean export as well as a gradual and progressive stabilization of the country's inflation that had reached as 350 % during the socialist Allende's government. This work brings a comparison of two very different economic doctrines that formed Chile in the 70's of the last century. There is being compared a socialist government approach, having focused on nationalizing of the private sector, to the liberal government's approach aimed at decreasing the public sector, privatization as well as tearing down international trade barriers.
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Orienteering club support system
Buk, Jindřich ; Vojíř, Stanislav (advisor) ; Sklenák, Vilém (referee)
Nowadays, an increasing number of processes and life situations is getting IT support. Often the use of the Internet aims to accelerate and simplify existing processes. In addition, there is a big area of social networking that can be complementary. This thesis deals with the possibilities of using web technologies to support the running of a club and its subsequent development. Indeed, the club has the potential to simplify and automate many processes which previously have been carried out by someone in person. It has also a potential to use social networks for its publicity and development. The aim is to first determine what areas of the clubs operations are the most appropriate to be supported by any information system. Another objective is to find out how other clubs already integrate any information systems. The final objective is to design and create a specific application. The first two objectives are addressed through a survey among the leaders of the biggest Czech clubs. Indeed in these clubs, the use of automation and simplification of existing processes could have a great potential. The proposal for a specific application is then based on the previous survey and the field experience of the author. While serving many existing processes in running the club, the proposed application adds many elements of social networking.
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The migration crisis in Europe and subsequent implications for Swedish welfare state
Lacková, Dominika ; Bič, Josef (advisor) ; Němcová, Ingeborg (referee)
In general, migration is one of the most important global challenges. The topic of regulating migration flows came to the fore in relation to the current Europe's migration, or more precisely, refugee crisis. It has been described as the most massive migrant's crisis since the WW2. Unprecedented influx of immigrants and refugees in 2015 resulted in that even the best prepared European countries, such as Sweden, have reached a tipping point with regard to respect EU standards related to reception and processing of asylum applications. Master thesis covered two main analyses - the relevance of the refugee crisis in the EU in regards to the Swedish welfare state and the subsequent implications arising from the refugee crisis for the Swedish welfare state.
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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