Vliv společné měny na obchodní cykly v zemích střední a východní Evropy.

Wang, Yue

This paper investigates how the introduce of single currency influence on the synchronization of business cycles in Central Eastern European Countries. The Hodrick-Prescott filter is applied to extract the cyclical component of real GDP for fifteen European countries and the Vector Autoregression models are applied to further investigate the influence of fiscal policy on regional economies. A database of quarterly real GDP for business cycles and quarterly current account for fiscal variables for the period: 1995Q1-2019Q4 is constructed. The main results of the study can be summarized as follows. The establishment of Economy Monetary Union has significantly increased the level of co-movement across euro area member states. There is a high degree of synchronization of business cycles in core countries than periphery countries after the introduce of common currency. For CEEC-7 including non-Eurozone countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland) and Eurozone countries (Estonia, Germany, Slovakia, Slovenia), clusters in correlation exist because their GDP reacts differently to the fiscal shocks especially after the global financial crisis and ongoing euro area crisis. Key words business cycle synchronization; Economic integration; Fiscal policy; VAR

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