Název: Approximate Transition Density Estimation of the Stochastic Cusp Model
Autoři: Voříšek, Jan
Typ dokumentu: Příspěvky z konference
Konference/Akce: MME 2016. International Conference Mathematical Methods in Economics /34./, Liberec (CZ), 2016-09-06 / 2016-09-09
Rok: 2016
Jazyk: eng
Abstrakt: Stochastic cusp model is defined by stochastic differential equation with cubic drift. Its stationary density allows for skewness, different tail shapes and bimodality. There are two stable equilibria in bimodality case and movement from one equilibrium to another is interpreted as a crash. Qualitative properties of the cusp model were employed to model crashes on financial markets, however, practical applications of the model employed the stationary distribution, which does not take into account the serial dependence between observations. Because closed-form solution of the transition density is not known, one has to use approximate technique to estimate transition density. This paper extends approximate maximum likelihood method, which relies on the closed-form expansion of the transition density, to incorporate time-varying parameters of the drift function to be driven by market fundamentals. A measure to predict endogenous crashes of the model is proposed using transition density estimates. Empirical example estimates Iceland Krona depreciation with respect to the British Pound in the year 2001 using differential of interbank interest rates as a market fundamental.
Klíčová slova: approximate transition density; multimodal distributions; stochastic cusp model
Číslo projektu: GBP402/12/G097 (CEP)
Poskytovatel projektu: GA ČR
Zdrojový dokument: Proceedings of the 34th International Conference Mathematical Methods in Economics MME 2016, ISBN 978-80-7494-296-9

Instituce: Ústav teorie informace a automatizace AV ČR (web)
Informace o dostupnosti dokumentu: Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Externí umístění souboru: http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2019/E/vorisek-0507383.pdf
Původní záznam: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0298681

Trvalý odkaz NUŠL: http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-399087


Záznam je zařazen do těchto sbírek:
Věda a výzkum > AV ČR > Ústav teorie informace a automatizace
Konferenční materiály > Příspěvky z konference
 Záznam vytvořen dne 2019-08-26, naposledy upraven 2019-10-20.


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