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The Czech banking sector: Determinants of Profitability
Hykl, Daniel ; Pečená, Magda (advisor) ; Teplý, Petr (referee)
This thesis is concerned with Czech banking sector in 2015 - 2020 and its profitability. A set of bank-specific and macroeconomic variables is tested for profitability determination effects by a general profitability model estimated with system GMM, FE, and OLS methods, yearly and quarterly data are used. The results indicate negative effects on bank profitability of the following on both yearly and quarterly bases: capitalization, operational efficiency, and inflation change, and positive effects on bank profitability of the following on both yearly and quarterly bases: bank size and GDP growth. The thesis also analyzes quarterly changes in bank assets, liabilities, and equity. The results indicate systematic drops of liabilities and assets reported as of year-ends. Potential explanations are discussed along with suggestions for further research as this study presents a complex set of insights, results, and experience ready to be augmented with further efforts.
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Impact of COVID-19 fiscal measures on Non-Performing Loans
Bajcár, Tomáš ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Fanta, Nicolas (referee)
We study to which extent fiscal measures related to COVID-19 have mitigated credit risk proxied by non-performing loans (NPLs) in selected European countries. In this respect, we control for the macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans. We limit our empirical analysis to NPLs and fiscal measures that aimed at non-financial corporations. We utilize a quarterly panel dataset covering the period from 2019 to 2021. We further employ split according to sectors of economic activity and cover 423 sectors in 23 European countries. The difference GMM estimation for dynamic panel data is utilized. Our empirical analysis suggests that the following variables significantly affect NPL ratios: economic growth, employment, nominal effective exchange rate and return on equity. In the case of the fiscal measures, public guarantees and tax reliefs were found to have a statistically significant and negative effect on NPLs. This finding supports the notion that during the COVID-19 pandemic, loan guarantees and lower tax burdens helped businesses maintain liquidity and solvency, which resulted in reduction of NPL ratios. Contrary, loan moratoria were found to positively affect NPL ratios. There is mixed evidence regarding direct grants and no empirical evidence was found in the case of...
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Macroeconomic stress-testing of banking systems: survey of methodologies and empirical application
Šimečková, Jana ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Pečená, Magda (referee)
This thesis deals with stress testing as a process that helps to assess the impact of potential adverse shocks on the soundness of a financial system. First section is dedicated to non-technical discussion about stress testing and to some methodological issues. The main focus lies on the system-wide macroeconomic stress testing. The empirical part of the thesis is a contribution to macroprudential analysis of the quality of the aggregate loan portfolio in the Czech Republic. This study adopts a vector autoregression model applied to the Czech banking sector in order to judge its stability and present some evidence on macroeconomic variables affecting the Czech banking system. As a measure of the strength of the loan portfolio is used the stock of non-performing loans vis-à-vis total loans in the sector. The thesis follows the widely used methodology and seeks to identify significant macroeconomic risk factors affecting the loan portfolio quality. The latter part aims also to forecast the most likely development of the loan portfolio.
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Effects of LTV, DTI and DSTI ratios on retail mortgage market. Evidence from the Czech Republic
Mičková, Anna ; Pečená, Magda (advisor) ; Hanus, Luboš (referee)
The thesis analyses the effects of credit-related borrower-based macroprudential measures - loan-to-value (LTV), debt-to-income (DTI) and debt service-to-income (DSTI) ratios - on retail mortgage market in the Czech Republic. These lending instruments, which target mainly borrowers and restrict the amount of money borrowed relative to the value of underlying collateral (LTV) or client's disposable income (DTI, DSTI), represent a non-negligible part of macroprudential policy. This entry barrier should act in a preventive manner to protect borrowers from taking high-amount and high-risk mortgages and eventually curb excessive private sector leverage. After the introduction and implementation of limits in the Czech Republic, the supply of loans with risky parameters declined, the share of non-performing mortgage loans decreased, and the rise in house price index decelerated. In 2019, the volume of new mortgage loans declined by 13.6 % year-over-year compared to the previous year and the spiral between increasing credit financing of property purchases and rising property prices slightly weakened.
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Non-Performing Loans - Determinants, the Development over Time and the Impact on Banks and the Real Economy
Kafková, Kateřina ; Pečená, Magda (advisor) ; Fanta, Nicolas (referee)
Non-Performing Loans - Determinants, Development over Time and the Impact on Banks and the Real Economy Author: Kateřina Kafková Abstract This thesis explains the concept of non-performing loans (NPL) and analyses factors determining the share of NPLs in total gross loans provided in the Czech Republic. A panel of 24 banks operating in the Czech Republic with annual data from 2010-2019 is analysed. The main estimation method that is used is the difference Generalized Method of Moments. The possible determinants that are examined come from both macroeconomic and banking environment. The results of the estimation provide evidence of the existence of a connection between the NPL ratio and the macroeconomic factors, of which the effect of inflation and unemployment was the most significant. Also, the estimation confirms that the NPL ratio is significantly influenced by the bank-specific determinants, specifically by the effect of the previous values of the NPL ratio and the effect of credit growth. Finally, the thesis discusses the reversed effect - the effect of NPLs on the real economy.
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Bank credit risk management in the low-interest rate environment
Maivald, Matěj ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Pečená, Magda (referee)
The thesis examines the relation of the low-interest rate environment to the banks' selected credit risk measures with a panel dataset on banks in Eurozone, Denmark, Japan, Sweden, and Switzerland covering the period 2011-2017. It employs a system GMM framework and a combination of bank-related and macroeconomic variables. This study builds on recent literature on effects of low-interest rates on banks' profitability and estimates the following three hypotheses: The potential effects of the low-interest rate on non-performing loans (NPL) ratio, risk-weighted assets (RWA) to total assets ratio, and changes in Tier 1 capital ratio. There are three main results: Firstly, the results suggest that a prolonged period of negative monetary interest rate can affect the NPL ratio and reveal a possible relationship between the 3M-interbank interest rate and NPL ratio. Thus, the thesis does not reject the first hypotheses. However, it rejects these hypotheses in case of the other two ratios. Secondly, the study finds a bank heterogeneity to be a significant determinant of the credit risk. Finally, using recent data, this thesis contributes to the literature focusing on the drivers of the NPL ratio, RWA to total assets ratio and Tier 1 capital ratio, where in case of the latter two the existing research is...
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Financial and banking crisis
Lysoňková, Jana ; Revenda, Zbyněk (advisor) ; Šíma, Ondřej (referee)
The bachelor thesis is focused on the issue of financial and banking crisis which is shown in relation to a specific case. It is divided into three chapters. The first part discusses general concepts such as currency, banking, debt and systemic crises. The second chapter offers a specific view of the current banking crisis in Italy, its brief historical and geographical development. It deals mainly with the non-performing loans of commercial banks and the slowing economic development. For this purpose, the thesis attempts to describe the Italian banking system, to explain the structure of banks and their main economic indicators. In the last part, a particular Italian bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, is presented. The foundation, growth and its influence on the earth are discussed. The attempt is to demonstrate the reasons for its bankruptcy.
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Analysis of Systemically Important Italian Banks and the overall stability of the banking sector
Dědek, Jiří ; Dvořák, Petr (advisor) ; Fleischmann, Luboš (referee)
The subject of the diploma thesis "Analysis of Systemically Important Italian Banks and the overall stability of the banking sector" is the analysis of the current situation and the latest developments in the Italian banking sector with a focus on systemically important institutions. The first part describes the general state of current banking in Italy after the global crisis, including a brief historical introduction and pre-crisis development. It provides information on entity and ownership structure, capital adequacy and liquidity, and the overall structure of assets and liabilities of the sector. Particular attention is paid to the problem of non-performing loans and the impact on banks' profitability. The second part begins with the definition of systemically important banks and focuses on the analysis of individual banks with an emphasis on those systemically important. In the bank's stability and health assessment, the development of the portfolios of non-performing loans is highlighted. The final part of the thesis deals with the summary of Italian banking problems and assesses the stability of the sector in the context of the euro area.
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Determinants of NPLs at the aggregate level: A comparative approach for middle and high income countries
Sandrovschi, Violeta ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Serdarevič, Goran (referee)
This thesis investigates the key determinants of the Non-performing loans (NPLs) comparing two groups of countries from Southeastern and Western Europe, with two different levels of economic development. We try to find empirical evidence and estimate whether the determinants of NPL ratio are different for the middle and high income countries. Applying panel data models for 14 countries overall, and using the regressions of subsampled countries, we analyze the importance of the determinants at the aggregate level. The final results show that all variables considered are significant, except inflation rate under all specifications and FDI when the subsampled dummy variables are used. As for the specifications of the exchange rate determinant, we conclude that the NPL ratio is negatively and significantly influenced in the export dominant middle income economies. An additional non-economic variable, such as the educational index, constructed at the national level, is found to increase the NPL ratio. Concerning the institutional quality index, averaging all six institutional indicators, this determinant does not show a consistent result across different data sample specifications.
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Households Indebtedness and Financial Stability: Empirical Analysis from the Czech Republic
Kroupa, Jan ; Seidler, Jakub (advisor) ; Džmuráňová, Hana (referee)
This thesis studies interconnections between macroeconomic environment and non-performing loans ratio (NPL) of banking loans provided to households in the Czech Republic in years 2005-2014. This analysis serves as tool for macroprudential policy to detect potential risks before negative consequences occur. The thesis examines mutual relations between households' non-performing loans ratio and variables capturing macroeconomic environment such as GDP growth, unemployment rate, CPI, interest rate and exchange rate. For purposes of this analysis, vector autoregressive approach and vector error correction model are applied. Based on impulse response analysis, most of expected relations are confirmed. Generally, favorable macroeconomic conditions increase payback capacity of households and reduce share of non-performing loans. According to forecast variance decomposition, increase in unemployment rate is the most serious threat for financial stability of the country from the perspective of non-performing rate increase. JEL Classification C32, C52, E21, G21 Keywords Households, indebtedness, financial stability, non-performing loans, Czech Republic, VAR, VECM Author's e-mail h.kroupa@seznam.cz Supervisor's e-mail seidler@email.cz
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