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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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The capacity of the European Union to form a common foreign policy: The approach towards Russia during the crisis in Ukraine
Grycová, Adéla ; Rolenc, Jan Martin (advisor) ; Cibulková, Petra (referee)
The thesis deals with the issues of framing and europeanization of the foreign policy of the European Union in the context of an actorness of the EU. These two theoretical concepts are applied on the case of an approach of the Czech Republic and European Union towards Russian Federation during the crisis in Ukraine. The aim of this thesis is to find out if the European Union is capabble of affecting the behaviour of a member state in order to create unified and operational foreign policy. The first chapter deals with teoretical definition of the two concepts and detailed description of the stances of Czech Republic and European Union follows in the second one. On the basis of these chapters the assessment is conducted. The last part firstly concludes if any attempt of influecing is present and secondly the success rate of the attempt is evaluated.
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The Asian financial crisis and post-crisis development of newly industrialized countries of Asia
Panchenko, Victoria ; Bolotov, Ilya (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
This thesis analyzes the Asian financial crisis by providing a comprehensive view of the development of the economies of the Asian newly industrialized countries before and after the outbreak of the crisis. The aim of this paper is to explore and understand the causes of the crisis and derive practical lessons. The work is structured as follows. The first chapter is theoretical and defines newly industrialized countries by focusing on the characteristics of the economic and social status of these countries in a period of prosperity. The second chapter examines the financial crisis in 1997 - its origin, causes, indicators and progress. The last chapter discusses the impact of the crisis both on countries of Southeast Asia and on the world economy overall. Afterwards, summarizing of the lessons that can be learned from the Asian financial crisis and that remain urgent even nowadays is outlined.
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Communication Strategy of Komerční banka, a.s. with a Focus on the Youngsters
Bartůňková, Eva ; Postler, Milan (advisor) ; Jelínková, Jitka (referee)
Thesis explores communication strategy of Komerční banka, a.s. with a focus on the Youngsters. The aim of this thesis is an analysis of previous and current campaigns, corroborated by original research. The thesis comprises six chapters, the first two chapters dealing with theory, the rest dealing with empirical findings. The first chapter discusses the difference between marketing and commercial communication and kinds of commercial communication; the second chapter delves into the issue of communication strategy, its types and development. The third chapter consists of a presentation of Komerční banka, a.s. including an evaluation of the competition; the subsequent chapter discusses the characteristics of the G2 brand, its target group and includes an SWOT analysis. The content of the fifth chapter is a description of previous communication and of new communication campaign of the G2 brand. In the conclusion of the thesis, research results are assessed and future steps are recommended.
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PRINCIPLES OF NURSING CARE OF THE CHILD WITH ACUTA RENAL FAILURE
HOLUBCOVÁ, Eliška
The thesis principles of nursing care for a child with renal failure is engaged in nursing activities in nephrology and cardiology intensive care unit of a hospital in Prague - Motol. Acute renal failure is defined as a condition where there is a sudden , usually reversible renal impairment, which were totally wrong , or very little damage. Besides the medical approach to this disease in acute renal failure urgently needed highly skilled nursing care. When nursing care for sick children teamwork is essential . A child with acute renal failure , always requires hospitalization in intensive care.The thesis is divided into a theoretical and an empirical part . In the theoretical part , attention is paid to the current issue of treating a child with acute renal failure. The work also includes anatomy and physiology of the kidney , and nephrologic basic concepts. Attention is also pays attention to the methods of investigation , communication with patients and nursing diagnoses . There acquaintance with elimination methods and nursing care for the child , unless they use the elimination method .
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The Conclusion of a Contract under the United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods in Comparison with Czech National Legislation
Krčálová, Kristýna ; Boháček, Martin (advisor) ; Levý, Jan (referee)
This Master's thesis focuses on the United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods (CISG), better known as the Vienna Convention. The main purpose of this thesis is to evaluate conditions for application of this international treaty and to assess the contracting process under the CISG including the similarities and differences with the Czech national legislation. Finally, it seeks an answer to the question, which of these rules (international or national) are more advantageous for a Czech contractual party with respect to concluding a contract. The thesis is divided into five parts. The first one represents an introduction to the CISG, its origin and the Czech Republic's attitude to it. The second part identifies the conditions for application of the CISG and therefore defines a subject and an object of an international contract of sale under the CISG. Both third and fourth parts gradually introduce two phases of the contracting process (offer and acceptance) including the relevant case-law. The last chapter strives to complete the contracting process with an analysis of the exact moment, when a contract is concluded, as well as with an analysis of a potential battle of the forms and its impact on a contract conclusion.
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Optimalization of material flow in automotive industry
Kolář, Tomáš ; Jirsák, Petr (advisor) ; Vinš, Marek (referee)
This master thesis is focussed on optimalization of material flow in an automotive company. First part introduce theoretical background. Automotive industry and its actual trends on global markets. Follows short introduction of the company where project of this thesis was executed. Main theoretical part describes concept of lean management, its tools in practical examples, but it is also focussed on philosophical approach to the work and mindset of the company. Follows the aplication part based on theoretical background. The whole project of this master thesis is focussed on specific area called PC store. At first this area is showed in context of overall material flow. Shortly there are introduced processes and areas where full material packaging flows. Follows deeper analysis and optimalization of PC store itself. There are three approaches of stock and lead time reduction applied. Last part shows the comparison of initial and future state including performed changes.
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Organization of the protest action against Hus's burning at the stake
Novotný, Robert
Based on a prosopographical analysis, the study attempts to capture the organizational context of the origin of the protest letter against Hus's burning at the stake from 2 September 1415. One of the main conclusions is that the majority of the signatories from the ranks of the lower nobility added their seals to the protest action rather from loyalty to their powerful neighbours than expressing their own confessional position.
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Modelling, parameter estimation, optimisation and control of transport and reaction processes in bioreactors.
ŠTUMBAUER, Václav
With the significant potential of microalgae as a major biofuel source of the future, a considerable scientific attention is attracted towards the field of biotechnology and bioprocess engineering. Nevertheless the current photobioreactor (PBR) design methods are still too empirical. With this work I would like to promote the idea of designing a production system, such as a PBR, completely \emph{in silico}, thus allowing for the in silico optimization and optimal control determination. The thesis deals with the PBR modeling and simulation. It addresses two crucial issues in the current state-of-the-art PBR modeling. The first issue relevant to the deficiency of the currently available models - the incorrect or insufficient treatment of either the transport process modeling, the reaction modeling or the coupling between these two models. A correct treatment of both the transport and the reaction phenomena is proposed in the thesis - in the form of a unified modeling framework consisting of three interconnected parts - (i) the state system, (ii) the fluid-dynamic model and (iii) optimal control determination. The proposed model structure allows prediction of the PBR performance with respect to the modelled PBR size, geometry, operating conditions or a particular microalgae strain. The proposed unified modeling approach is applied to the case of the Couette-Taylor photobioreactor (CTBR) where it is used for the optimal control solution. The PBR represents a complex multiscale problem and especially in the case of the production scale systems, the associated computational costs are paramount. This is the second crucial issue addressed in the thesis. With respect to the computational complexity, the fluid dynamics simulation is the most costly part of the PBR simulation. To model the fluid flow with the classical CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) methods inside a production scale PBR leads to an enormous grid size. This usually requires a parallel implementation of the solver but in the parallelization of the classical methods lies another relevant issue - that of the amount of data the individual nodes must interchange with each other. The thesis addresses the performance relevant issues by proposing and evaluation alternative approaches to the fluid flow simulation. These approaches are more suitable to the parallel implementation than the classical methods because of their rather local character in comparison to the classical methods - namely the Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) for fluid flow, which is the primary focus of the thesis in this regard and alternatively also the discrete random walk based method (DRW). As the outcome of the thesis I have developed and validated a new Lagrangian general modeling approach to the transport and reaction processes in PBR - a framework based on the Lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) and the model of the Photosynthetic Factory (PSF) that models correctly the transport and reaction processes and their coupling. Further I have implemented a software prototype based on the proposed modeling approach and validated this prototype on the case of the Coutte-Taylor PBR. I have also demonstrated that the modeling approach has a significant potential from the computational costs point of view by implementing and validating the software prototype on the parallel architecture of CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture). The current parallel implementation is approximately 20 times faster than the unparallized one and decreases thus significantly the iteration cycle of the PBR design process.
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Position of Czech Documentary Photography During the Normalization Era
Folk, Čeněk ; VANČÁT, Pavel (advisor) ; Ledvina, Josef (referee)
The subject of my thesis is the position of Czech documentary photography during the normalization era in Czech territory. The term "position" encompasses several aspects of review: political and creative conditions under which the Czech documentary photography was originating; its status within the photography as artistic discipline and within other artistic disciplines; thinking about documentary photography and its changes over time; social application of documentary photography and its impact on society and, last but not least, its impact on political events. In the 70s and 80s the Czech documentary photography reached the greatest expansion, despite the uneasy political background. My thesis examines (among other things) how, why and under what circumstances this boom occurred.
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