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Návrh strategie pro obchodování s futures kontrakty
Zeman, Jan
The paper considers by design of trading strategy for futures markets. The problem is defined as dynamic decision making task and it is solved using iteration spread in time and Monte Carlo method. The paper includes results on experiments with real data.
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Chytrá a udržitelná města v kontextu vědecké a inovační strategie EU
Horniecká, Marie ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Procházková Ilinitchi, Cristina (referee)
The thesis explores how the EU support to research and innovation towards urban sustainability is designed, what the existing EU intiatives striving for achieving smart and sustainable cities are. The analysis of theoretical approaches forms the basis for developing the definition of smart and sustainable city for the purpose of this thesis. An overview of the principal EU strategic documents which address urban sustainability together with European networks is provided in order to demonstrate the linkage to the research Framework Programmes. A separate chapter is devoted to the analysis of the most pressing challenges European cities face nowadays. Database of EU funded research and innovation calls and projects is examined (E-CORDA). Calls and projects related to urban areas are identified and juxtaposed with the urban problems. Final recommendations concern with social aspects of sustainability which should be, in the author's opinion, addressed in future EU research Framework Programmes with a particular attention.
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Řízení IS/ICT se zaměřením na sourcing služeb informačního systému
Šebesta, Michal ; Voříšek, Jiří (advisor) ; Havlíček, Zdeněk (referee) ; Příklenk, Oldřich (referee) ; Král, Jaroslav (referee)
Research on outsourcing has been around for several decades, while recent evolution in the information systems discipline towards ICT service commoditization significantly changes the context of decision-making. Services that are available on-demand via the Internet allow organizations implementing functions they demand in a fraction of time. This trend represents a chance for organizations seeking to use advanced ICT services without a need of major investments. Problem is the current lack of guidelines and tools for managing ICT services and their outsourcing. Given the trends on the ICT service market, it is expected that much of the IT management in the future will encompass the ICT services and utilize service-level structures. Methods currently available are either too broad or encompass only small part of the whole problem. Ad-hoc or unsound decisions in this area might cause major complications in terms of quality, usability, integration, and consequently influence total cost of organizational IT. Organizations need to either revise existing models or propose and implement completely new models to manage their IS/ICT. This thesis deals with the management of IS/ICT with focus on the ICT services outsourcing. It discusses available sourcing models in the literature and links them to the various interconnected areas. Based on these areas, it presents an integrated view on IT outsourcing strategies. Most importantly the thesis proposes an original concept for decision-making about outsourcing of ICT services named the SOURCER framework. This approach utilizes the presented outsourcing strategies, and introduces a complex methodology and decision-making criteria that will assist organizations with selection of ICT services in order to maintain and manage a most suitable ICT service portfolio. The decision-making is based on four essential viewpoints: function, costs, time, and quality. These viewpoints are discussed, individually analyzed, and serve as a basis for further research. The whole framework is developed and validated according to Design Science Research Methodology (DSRM). Individual components are evaluated using a survey among a group of selected IT managers. Proof of concept is then established by a case study on framework use in a real organization. This case study covers strategy specification, business--IT alignment, specifying service architecture and its interconnections, outsourcing, and management of the ICT service portfolio.
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Speculation on oil markets and its impact on commodity's price
Melcher, Ota ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Baláž, Peter (referee) ; Müller, Štěpán (referee)
This study aims to analyse the precrisis period on the oil markets with a primary objective of assessing the role of speculation in the commodity's price development and its volatility. First it depicts the rapidly increasing speculative activity on the futures market together with the parallel oil price surge. The speculation is initially proxied by non-commercial traders' positions and subsequently quantified by Working's T-index. The paper then uses speculative traders' positions and both spot and futures prices to test for Granger causality within the framework of VAR models. For the sake of consistency it also evaluates causal links between speculation and inventories level. Further the study investigates the speculation impact on volatility of oil prices by employing various approaches in volatility quantification including GARCH models. Contrary to expectations we find that the speculatio's impact on both prices and their volatility is rather insignificant. In the last chapter we therefore seek for an explanation of the oil price developments by examining the market fundamentals. The interaction of supply and demand finally gives substantial evidence for understanding the price developments in the precrisis period.
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Employee motivation and satisfaction in production company
Olszowá, Zuzana ; Matysová, Kamila (advisor) ; Chylíková, Hana (referee)
The main subject of the thesis is employee motivation and satisfaction. The aim of this thesis is to analyze the employee motivation and work satisfaction of a production company, identify areas of dissatisfaction and provide recommendations for future improvements. The study also aims to emphasize the relationship between employee motivation and work satisfaction and the level of their performance, loyalty, absenteeism, fluctuation as well as the correllation between employee motivation and satisfaction and the overall organizational performance. A brief introduction is followed by the theoretical framework of the thesis which includes such concepts as motivation, stimulation, work motivation, job satisfaction or motivation profile, explains and focuses on basic theories of motivation and factors of employee satisfaction. The empirical part of the thesis introduces the human resources management in the production company and the questionnaire investigation conducted among the employees of the production company. The questionnaire icludes parts where the questions about satisfaction of the employee with the selected factors influencing employee motivation and satisfaction were asked. This section also includes conclusions and recommendations for future employee motivation and satisfaction improvements.
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Traffic and development of airport Zagreb
Chroustovská, Lenka ; Novák, Radek (advisor) ; Feninec, Jakub (referee)
The aim of this master's thesis is to analyse the project Zagreb Airport Cargo City. Project Zagreb Airport Cargo City deals with the building of the new cargo terminal at airport Zagreb Pleso. The theoretical part describes the country and characteristics of the transport sectors in the country, which aims mainly to cargo transport and its concern. The next part deals with detailed description of the whole project Zagreb Airport Cargo City. There are also mentioned statistics in this part, that are very important to introduce the whole project in the most comprehensive way, because there is not any similar project like this one. At the end of this part is mentioned the current situation of the project. Last chapter contains the practical part. There is a SWOT analysis of the whole project. Based on this analysis, the project is evaluated. As a part of the practical part are also the analysis of possibility of future development.
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Modelling, parameter estimation, optimisation and control of transport and reaction processes in bioreactors.
ŠTUMBAUER, Václav
With the significant potential of microalgae as a major biofuel source of the future, a considerable scientific attention is attracted towards the field of biotechnology and bioprocess engineering. Nevertheless the current photobioreactor (PBR) design methods are still too empirical. With this work I would like to promote the idea of designing a production system, such as a PBR, completely \emph{in silico}, thus allowing for the in silico optimization and optimal control determination. The thesis deals with the PBR modeling and simulation. It addresses two crucial issues in the current state-of-the-art PBR modeling. The first issue relevant to the deficiency of the currently available models - the incorrect or insufficient treatment of either the transport process modeling, the reaction modeling or the coupling between these two models. A correct treatment of both the transport and the reaction phenomena is proposed in the thesis - in the form of a unified modeling framework consisting of three interconnected parts - (i) the state system, (ii) the fluid-dynamic model and (iii) optimal control determination. The proposed model structure allows prediction of the PBR performance with respect to the modelled PBR size, geometry, operating conditions or a particular microalgae strain. The proposed unified modeling approach is applied to the case of the Couette-Taylor photobioreactor (CTBR) where it is used for the optimal control solution. The PBR represents a complex multiscale problem and especially in the case of the production scale systems, the associated computational costs are paramount. This is the second crucial issue addressed in the thesis. With respect to the computational complexity, the fluid dynamics simulation is the most costly part of the PBR simulation. To model the fluid flow with the classical CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) methods inside a production scale PBR leads to an enormous grid size. This usually requires a parallel implementation of the solver but in the parallelization of the classical methods lies another relevant issue - that of the amount of data the individual nodes must interchange with each other. The thesis addresses the performance relevant issues by proposing and evaluation alternative approaches to the fluid flow simulation. These approaches are more suitable to the parallel implementation than the classical methods because of their rather local character in comparison to the classical methods - namely the Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) for fluid flow, which is the primary focus of the thesis in this regard and alternatively also the discrete random walk based method (DRW). As the outcome of the thesis I have developed and validated a new Lagrangian general modeling approach to the transport and reaction processes in PBR - a framework based on the Lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) and the model of the Photosynthetic Factory (PSF) that models correctly the transport and reaction processes and their coupling. Further I have implemented a software prototype based on the proposed modeling approach and validated this prototype on the case of the Coutte-Taylor PBR. I have also demonstrated that the modeling approach has a significant potential from the computational costs point of view by implementing and validating the software prototype on the parallel architecture of CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture). The current parallel implementation is approximately 20 times faster than the unparallized one and decreases thus significantly the iteration cycle of the PBR design process.
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Association of Idependent Theatres of the Czech Republic – Analysis and Description of the Current State
Bodoríková, Markéta ; KAŠPAR, David (advisor) ; PROKOP, Petr (referee)
The thesis is focused on newly established Association of Independent Theaters of the Czech Republic, officially using the abbreviation AND ČR. The aim of the thesis is to describe formation of the association, its current state, future plans and its functioning. The first part examines the term “independent professional theater” and briefly characterizes selected organizations from the Czech Republic and Europe with the potential to meet with the AND ČR in the cultural area in future. In the following parts were researched needs of independent professional scene in Prague and was described the needs analysis for the field of “independent” theater from the year 2013. The thesis describes the development of AND ČR, its activities up to current stage, organizational structure and future short-term plans. In the final part of the thesis, there is defined the management system of the association and established its possible improvements so the AND ČR would become the leading organization representing independent professional theaters in the Czech Republic.
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Natural houses in gardens
Formánková, Kristýna ; Kunt, Miroslav (advisor)
Thesis discusses natural houses which are supposed to be part of our lives in the future. These houses may be for someone and they might prefer smarter building with non-recyclable materials when choosing a new housing. But it is necessary to think about our future and sustainable development. We also need to tell ourselves what is really a priority for our planet. There comes a time when they will prefer building materials which can be used somehow after some time or be recycled. This is related to the design of the garden. It is designed to fulfil an ornamental, economic and social function. The garden is an integral part of each house, therefore it is important for each element used to be creating the garden as a linked harmonious whole. The study deals with the concept of a natural houses home in accordance with the maximum use of the garden.
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