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Analysis of real and nominal convergence of the Visegrad Group in the years 2000-2015
Wikturna, Jan ; Strejček, Ivo (advisor) ; Zamrazilová, Eva (referee)
This Bachelor thesis is focused on a macroeconomic analysis of the process of the real and nominal convergence of the Visegrad Group countries to the old member states of the European Union, called EU-15 during the period of 2000-2015. The objective of the analysis is to confirm or disprove the hypothesis that in the selected period there is a convergence of the economically backward V4 countries with the advanced EU-15 countries and to highlight the factors that are behind the narrowing of the gap in economics and price levels. The theoretical part deals with the ways in which we measure and compare the economic performance and economic level, and explains the different approaches of the problem of economic growth and the subsequent catching up effect. The practical part is focused on a comparison of elected macroeconomic indicators and reference is made to the selected factors to determine whether, and for what reasons, the economic convergence of these selected countries made towards the developed countries of the EU-15. The analytical part confirms the ongoing process of the real and nominal convergence throughout the period, but its course is varied during different times of the period. In conclusion, it is found that the rate varied by the convergence processes and in fact positively affected the V4 countries, that joined the European Union. The incoming dynamics of the convergence, especially the prices, were significantly disrupted by the economic crisis.
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The possibilities of influencing walking stereotypes with botulinum toxin
Kolářová, Edita ; Angerová, Yvona (advisor) ; Pochylová, Barbora (referee)
Title: The possibilities of influencing walking stereotypes with botulinum toxin Abstract: The thesis is focused on finding opportunities to influence the walking stereotype of patients suffering from spasticity of the lower limbs by botulinum toxin. The aim of thesis is to compare the quality of walking stereotype of these patients before and after the application of botulinum toxin by using a standardized test intended to evaluate the walk and based on the results to evaluate the effect of botulinum toxin on the walking stereotype. While reading the theoretical part the reader is familiar with the basic concepts related to the problems such as spasticity, botulinum toxin and walking stereotype. The scales evaluating the muscle tone are subsequently described (The Modified Ashworth scale, The Tardieu Scale) and of course the scales evaluating the walking stereotype are also mentioned (Rancho Los Amigos Gait Analysis Form, Gait Assessment Rating Scale, Rivermead Visual Gait Assessment, Tinetti Balance And Gait Evaluation). Scales evaluating the walking stereotype are also described in detail at thesis, their pros and cons are highlighted and upon the preferences of the author, one of these scales is selected to be applied in the practical part. The practical part is composed of case studies of two patients...
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The impact of the economic cycle to finance the defense of the Czech republic in years 2004-2014
Heres, Ondřej ; Chmelová, Pavla (advisor) ; Strejček, Ivo (referee)
This bachelor work examines the impact of economic performance on financing the defense sector in the Czech Republic in the years 2004-2014. The main questions are whether this influence is clear and the extent to which is essential for funding this sector. The work also provides a basic overview about development and structure of the Ministry of Defence budget in these years. The theoretical part contains theories of business cycle and public sector and briefly introduces the basic institutions that are tasked to provide a defense. The analytic part analyzes the expenditures and revenues of the Ministry of Defence and assesses their mutual influence and simultaneously the influence of GDP on these indicators. To compare with previous findings, the GPD growth rate and the growth rate of defense expenditures in selected countries of NATO are analyzed in brief in the last chapter. While findings based on data from the Ministry of Defence have rather anticyclical development of defense expenditures, in selected countries of NATO, the development is more procyclical. It highlights the very ambiguous impact of the economic cycle on expenditures in the defense sector.
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Usage of the IONIC framework for development cross-platform mobile application
Gruda, Pavel ; Buchalcevová, Alena (advisor) ; Zapadlo, Jaroslav (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to analyse framework IONIC and determine the suitability of this framework for cross-platform mobile development. The intent of the theoretical part is to analyse the current market, introduction to the mobile development and a description of the framework IONIC and related technologies. The practical part deals with the analysis and design mobile application PowerFLOW, describing the implemented mobile application and sample code. The last part is about framework IONIC evaluation based on set criteria. The evaluation rating was determined on the experience gained during the implementation of mobile application PowerFLOW. There are also listed personal experience of the implementation. Based on this thesis the IONIC can be recommended as the framework for cross-platform mobile development.
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Application of Monte Carlo simulations in banking
Boruta, Matěj ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Fučík, Vojtěch (referee)
Currently, banking is exposed to huge market risks. One of those risks is occurrence of negative interest rates in the EU. Nowadays, it is important to use sophisticated and modern measurement tools and approaches to measure and manage banking risks. One of those methods is Monte Carlo simulation. This bachelor thesis is aimed at analysis and prediction of 3-month maturity Prague Interest Offer Rate (PRIBOR) for 3, 6 and 12 months with using Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that this method is suitable for prediction market variables with low volatility. If anybody uses this method, it is necessity to have in mind all pitfalls and assumptions, that this method includes, as an adequate random generated number of scenarios, approximation of correct probability distribution, independence of dataset and not least, as far as possible, to focus on factors generating randomness of market variable and not the prices, that express rather consequences of randomness than its cause. Further, the Monte Carlo prediction was compared with prognosis of the Czech Nation Bank and it was found that Monte Carlo prediction is more accurate for short term predictions. 12-month prediction of Monte Carlo simulation discovered also possible occurrence of negative interest rate at 0,05% level of probability in compare to the Czech National Bank prognosis, where was no negative interest rate predicted.
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Global Economy Outlook - October 2016
Česká národní banka
The October issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we focus in detail on the industrial producer price index (PPI), which, alongside the consumer price index (CPI), is a key indicator of inflation on the production side of the economy. We also explain the specifics of the PPI, especially in the EU, and present a model simulation indicating the sensitivity of the PPI to a change in oil prices.
Fulltext:  PDF; PDF
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Analysis breeding of milk cattle on the chosen biofarme
Plášková, Pavlína ; Toušová, Renata (advisor) ; Ducháček, Jaromír (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to evaluace the conditions of dairy cattle breeding in ecological agriculture and to compare them with concrete values taken from the chosen ecological farm Bílčice, which has been part of ecological agriculture since 2011 and which is focused on czech fleckvieh breeding and bio milk production. The first part deals with dairy cattle breed characteristic, main objectives and ecological agriculture principals, welfare problems, breed cattle and utility control, housing technology, nutrition and feeding, mechanical milking technology, milk production, reproduction, health condition and breeding economy. The practical part contains the rating of milk yield index (milk production, % proteins, % fat) and reproduction index ( meantime, perioda service, insemination index and after first parturition percentage). 650 pieces of cos were stabled at farm, from that 200 pices of dairy cos were mostly czech fleckvieh. Monitoring was made in 2013. Dayily milk production was around 2 750 kg. The milk utility for lactacion was in 2013 6 100 kg of milk, 3,89 % fat and 3,34 % proteins. The dairy cos were free stabled with high bedding, They were mechanically milked twice a day in herringbone parlours. Milk is being delivered once in twodays to Olma dairy. Cows are regularly driven out to pasture in summer feeding period. They are extra fed with 10 kg of clover silage and 6 kg of scarp (barely, wheat, triticale). Cows stays in stables for winter time. The ration consists of 45 kg of clover silage, 6 kg of scarp, 2 kg of lupine and 1 kg of corn in first time of lactacion. The cow utility in transitional form of economy at farm Bilcice was 7 477 kg of milk in 2010, a value in the Czech Republic was 7 726 kg of milk. After entering the ecological agriculture in 2013 milk yield at the farm decreased on 6 100 kg of milk and the average value in the Czech Republic increased to 8 370 kg of milk. The cow utility in transitional form was 4,03 % fat in 2010 and 3,89 % in 2013 (ecological agriculture). A diference between 2010 and 2013 is 0,14 %. Proteins were 3,39 % in 2010 and 3,34 % in 2013. There was average value for every reproduction index. The service period was 96 days and the meantime was 400 days, the insemination index was 1,8 and the after first parturition percentage was 54,2 %.
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