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Supply Chain Risk Management
Babková, Ivana ; Pernica, Petr (advisor) ; Jacina, Matěj (referee)
Práce se zabývá problematikou řízení rizika v logistických řetězcích se zaměřením na jeden konkrétní článek řetězce. Definuje základní oblasti risk managementu, jeho hlavní aspekty a systém spojitého plánování. Zabývá se bezpečností práce v pojetí EU, České republiky a Velké Británie. V aplikační části uvádí řízení rizika v jednom článku logistického řetězce, skladu poskytovatele logistických služeb ve Velké Británii.
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Currency risk hedging demonstrated on investment portfolios
Siuda, Vojtěch ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Brada, Jaroslav (referee)
This bachelor thesis is focused on currency hedging in investment portfolio. At first are explained the terms currency risk and currency exposure and then the instruments for currency hedging are described. In the practical part of this thesis is reader acquainted with the crown class and the dollar class of US equity mutual fund. Yields are analysed in short and long term as well as with long and short term risk. The description of the hedging technique is also included in practical part. The last chapter is dedicated to questions, when is suitable to be hedged and how to find the ideal hedge ratio for minimizing the currency risk. Considered is also the possibility of using currency movements as an element of investment strategy.
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Unconvential monetary policy adopted by ECB and FED in 2008-2015
Pörner, Marek ; Šetková, Lenka (advisor) ; Ševčíková, Michaela (referee)
The main aim of this thesis is to analyse the accomplishment of the goals set, namely those of the selected unconventional monetary policies approved by the Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank in response to the last financial crisis. With the FED the attention is focused on Quantitative Easing, whereas with the ECB it is focused on the programmes called Enhanced Credit Support, SMP, OMT and EAPP. Important parts of this thesis are also the explanation of the transmission mechanism of the unconventional monetary policy, the evaluation of macroeconomic impacts of these non-standard tools, the comparison of procedures of the two monitored central banks, but mainly the analysis of selected risks related to those tools. The principal method was an empirical analysis supported by economic studies dealing with the issues mentioned above. In the thesis it was discovered that the individual goals of the monitored programmes were achieved (with the exception of the SMP). With the programme EAPP no conlusion can be drawn because the programme has not been finished yet. Nevertheless, these non-standard tools bring certain risks such as a creation of a bubble in the markets of assets, a redistribution of wealth, a spillover effect, etc. For that reason it will be possible to evaluate the overall effect of the unconventional monetary policies only after a longer time period.
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Prevention of Burn Injuries in Children
Hubová, Martina ; Čelko, Alexander (advisor)
The goal of this work was to outline the problems of burn injuries and to present the possible way of their prevention in children. I participated in this project while I was on learning program in Italy, where it already exists for couple of months. Here is a detailed description of the program together with the czech version of the material. Burns belong to one of the most serious injuries. It is very big risk of life-treat especially in children. Their body is more senzitive for any changes, their skin is more delicate and vulnerable for high temperature, quite small extent of burns can lead to developing of shock and subsequently to death. Prevention is always better then care. We can realize it in different ways.We can manage to reduce the risk of burn injuries by technical precautions, legislation changes or thanks to the education. This work is focused in education of children. The prevention program has the comics form, which is easily understandable, explanatory and mainly entertainig method. Through the illustrated stories and comics characters we would like to obtain childrens interest and try to give them sufficient imagination and knowledge, useful in risk situations. The comics should be distributed to schools, it should serve for educating, it should be in pediatric ambulances and available...
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The Controlling Study
Herda, Tomáš ; Mikovcová, Hana (advisor) ; Herda, Zdeněk (referee)
The main goal of this Diploma´s Thesis is to make a model for calculation of water and sewer rates for the company Vodovody a kanalizace Náchod, a.s. when sticking to the set criteria both from the side of VaK Náchod, a.s. and law regulations. Based on the theoretical part an analysis of customer sensitivity to the price changes using the data for last 20 years follows. Findings from the first two parts are used in risk analysis in next part. The created model calculates the water and sewer rates based on the information from the company accounting system in the way to generate sufficient financial resources to fulfill the renovation plan of infrastructural property plant and equipment and to transfer given amount to the company funds. In addition, the model monitors whether the legal condition of maximal allowable increase of profit per m3 is met. In the customer sensitivity to the price changes part the price elasticity of demand for water and sewer rates is calculated based on the data from 1995 to 2015. The assumption of inelastic demand is confirmed. Risk analysis part is deals with potential risk regarding the demand and prices. Potential impacts for the most significant risk are quantified. The analysis uses knowledge gained in the first two parts. It was confirmed that potential risks are exiting but do not have any significant impact on the going concern of VaK Náchod, a.s. The created model has been already used for the calculation of prices for the year 2017. Customer sensitivity analysis to the price changes and link to the potential risks is an additional information for VaK Náchod, a.s. which validates that nowadays, there are no significant threats which could affect the demand and water and sewer rates significantly.
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Causes and possible consequences of the end of U.S. dollar excusivity on oil markets
Zukerstein, Jaroslav ; Kozák, Kryštof (advisor) ; Svoboda, Karel (referee)
The United States are today the most indebted country in the world. However, they do not face the distrust of financial markets as some European countries. Washington, until now, could afford rapidly growing and de facto risk-free debt thanks to the exclusive position of the U.S. dollar on oil markets and the petrodollar recycling system. With the implementation of the new common European currency, however, the dominant position of the dollar on oil markets came to the end, important oil producers, including OPEC members, turned away from the U.S. currency, so the sustainability of the current, unusually favorable system for the Americans, is questionable. Bachelor thesis entitled Causes and possible consequences of the end of U.S. dollar exclusivity on oil markets reflects the unprecedented influence of the United States in the international monetary system which they controlled through the oil business, it presents the risks and benefits of petrodollar recycling, it analyzes the effects of changes on oil market, it assess the importance of oil bourses that explicitly reject the U.S. dollar and in the conclusion, on the basis of information and experience from the era when the dollar was backed with oil, it answers the question whether this system, maintained by force and controversial alliances,...
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Production system risk analysis
Motyka, Pavel ; Tabas, Marek (referee) ; Kotek, Luboš (advisor)
This thesis deals with risk assessment in the production system on the assembly line. Using risk analysis of each part of the production system will be realize the impact of the machinery to sevice. Then, by risk assessment often repetitive manual handling will be deal with the impact of the production system on health and safety service.
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Identification and elimination of the risk that can endanger nurses during their professional performance
CHARVÁTOVÁ, Lenka
Theoretical background Employment in the health service brings about a number of risks that are specific of respective health facilities and their departments. Nurses should be informed about all possible risks resulting from their nursing practice, as well as about ways to eliminate these risks because this is the only way they can protect themselves and by suitable means and procedures. Performing their work, nurses are exposed to four main areas of risk factors. These concern especially the effects of mental and physical strain, chemicals and biological factors. Objective of my thesis The objective was to test nurses' knowledge of risks and to test how well they can eliminate these risks. Apart from that, the thesis endeavours to find out whether the risks in nurses' work change in relation to the field of care provided. Hypotheses H1 Nurses know the risks resulting from their nursing practice. H2 Risks in nurses' work vary in relation to the field of care. H3 The most common risk occurring in nurses' occupation is the puncture wound caused by a needle. H 4 Nurses are acquainted with manners to eliminate risks resulting from the performance of their occupation. Methodology To test nurses' knowledge, I compiled a questionnaire focused on surveying the knowledge in the field of risks and elimination of these risks. The questionnaire was arranged in two basic groups. The first group was focused on the knowledge of risks and occurring injury in the performance of the occupation (the puncture wound by a needle). The other group was focused on the area of eliminating the risks. The research was carried out in medical facilities in the Region of South Bohemia. Altogether, 417 nurses were addressed. The following sections were chosen in a haphazard fashion: pulmonary, surgical, internal and a neurological departments, department of subsequent care and the intensive care unit. All the results obtained were statistically processed in the Excel programme from the Microsoft Office software packet. I used a graphic depiction to interpret the outcomes. Outcomes It was found out in the first area of the outcomes that nurses are acquainted with the risks of their occupation (knowledge of risk behaviour, when handling loads, when working with chemicals, when handling oxygen cylinders, treating an aggressive client). The second area of the outcomes was essential for establishing the ways to eliminate risks (the nurses proved knowledge of risks and duties, the duty to participate in creating a safe environment , compulsory preventive medical examinations, knowledge of risk behaviour, using personal protective equipment, observing the work principles and procedures, knowledge of treating contaminated laundry, oxygen cylinders and immobile clients, disinfection of hands, treating an aggressive client). The third area yielded an answer to the question whether puncture wounds caused by needles ranked among the most frequent risks in the occupation of the nurse. The last area was essential to establish the variability of risks depending on the field of care provided. It was found out, that risks varied in relation to the field of care provided, while the nurses viewed the mental and physical strain as the most significant risk in the performance of their work. H1 - Nurses know the risks resulting from their nursing practice - was confirmed, H2 - Risks in nurses' work vary in relation to the field of care provided - was confirmed, H3 - The most common risk occurring in nurses' occupation is the puncture wound by a needle - was confirmed, H4 - Nurses know ways to eliminate risks resulting from the performance of their occupation - was confirmed. Conclusion The outcomes of the research realized will be given to the managements of the above medical facilities, with the aim of increasing the nurses' knowledge of possible risks occurring in the performance of their work, as well as possible ways of eliminating these risks.
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RISK IN INVESTMENT DECISIONS
GARDOŠ, Radek
The topic of this thesis is the evaluation of risk in enterprise. First section summarizes common knowledge related to investment process and states methods used for analysis of risk and investments efficiency. Second part evaluates economic efficiency and risk of a future investments in the particular enterprise. Projects are critical to the realization of performing organization's strategies. Each project contains some degree of risk and it is required to be aware of these risks and to develop the necessary responses to get the desired level of project success. Because projects' risks are multidimensional, they must be evaluated by using risk evaluation methods. The aim of this part is to provide an analytic tool to evaluate the project risks. At first the thesis analysis net present value and other investment criteria of the construction project without risk factors. Subsequently the projects' risks are are evaluated by using risk premium. To study of how projected performance varies along with changes in the key assumptions on which the projections are based is used the sensitivity analysis. The main sources for data was the enterprise environment.
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