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Is import of goods from european countries to Czech republic more or less influenced by changes in nominal and real exchange rates than in non european countries?
Vereš, Jan ; Stroukal, Dominik (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyses the connection between import of goods from foreign countries to Czech Republic and the exchange rate changes. The initial hypothesis of this paper is to prove that the depreciation of domestic currency has positive influence on balance of trade balance. For this purpose there is eight econometric models which were created by using time series from years 2003 to 2016. These models are divided in pairs among four chosen countries. For each country two models were created that follow the development of trade balance between Czech Republic and one of the countries in two different time frames. All the models always use the real effective exchange rate, growth rate of GDP for Czech Republic and growth rate of GDP for one of the countries as explanatory variable. It is connected with the second task of this thesis, which is the analysis of the differences in the behaviour of the models that belong to the countries which are members of the EU and these that are not. The aim is to find out whether the existence of tariffs on imported goods from countries out of the EU causes visible differences in the behaviour of the variables that were included in the models. Based on the outcomes of all eight models the main hypothesis has been proved right for three out of four countries. In the models for Germany, China and France the relation of real exchange rate and trade balance came out as positive in long term, in short term the outcome was ambiguous. The second question of this thesis has been answered, but its added value is questionable. The final models for each state do show some noticeable differences and they can be used to determine if the influence of the change of exchange rates on trade balance is smaller or bigger in the countries where tariffs are used. On the other hand, from the results we can learn that the sample of only four countries is insufficient for the deduction of any conclusions.
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Comparison of Selected Impacts of New Frontier and Great Society Programs in 1960s
Kojan, Christian ; Johnson, Zdenka (advisor) ; Fabianková, Klára (referee)
This thesis deals with New Frontier and Great Society programs and their impact on social policy of the United States in the 1960s. The main goal of the thesis is to compare impact of both programs on selected indicators of standard of living with primary focus on the poverty rate. Thesis describes antipoverty measures of both programs and analyzes their impact on the standard of living. Hypothesis stating that the Great Society was more successful than New Frontier at reducing the poverty rate could not be proven true because of the immense influence of strong economic growth in the 1960s. Thesis suggests that the biggest success of both programs was the positive impact of the Great Society on education.
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The Controlling Study
Herda, Tomáš ; Mikovcová, Hana (advisor) ; Herda, Zdeněk (referee)
The main goal of this Diploma´s Thesis is to make a model for calculation of water and sewer rates for the company Vodovody a kanalizace Náchod, a.s. when sticking to the set criteria both from the side of VaK Náchod, a.s. and law regulations. Based on the theoretical part an analysis of customer sensitivity to the price changes using the data for last 20 years follows. Findings from the first two parts are used in risk analysis in next part. The created model calculates the water and sewer rates based on the information from the company accounting system in the way to generate sufficient financial resources to fulfill the renovation plan of infrastructural property plant and equipment and to transfer given amount to the company funds. In addition, the model monitors whether the legal condition of maximal allowable increase of profit per m3 is met. In the customer sensitivity to the price changes part the price elasticity of demand for water and sewer rates is calculated based on the data from 1995 to 2015. The assumption of inelastic demand is confirmed. Risk analysis part is deals with potential risk regarding the demand and prices. Potential impacts for the most significant risk are quantified. The analysis uses knowledge gained in the first two parts. It was confirmed that potential risks are exiting but do not have any significant impact on the going concern of VaK Náchod, a.s. The created model has been already used for the calculation of prices for the year 2017. Customer sensitivity analysis to the price changes and link to the potential risks is an additional information for VaK Náchod, a.s. which validates that nowadays, there are no significant threats which could affect the demand and water and sewer rates significantly.
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Usage of the IONIC framework for development cross-platform mobile application
Gruda, Pavel ; Buchalcevová, Alena (advisor) ; Zapadlo, Jaroslav (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to analyse framework IONIC and determine the suitability of this framework for cross-platform mobile development. The intent of the theoretical part is to analyse the current market, introduction to the mobile development and a description of the framework IONIC and related technologies. The practical part deals with the analysis and design mobile application PowerFLOW, describing the implemented mobile application and sample code. The last part is about framework IONIC evaluation based on set criteria. The evaluation rating was determined on the experience gained during the implementation of mobile application PowerFLOW. There are also listed personal experience of the implementation. Based on this thesis the IONIC can be recommended as the framework for cross-platform mobile development.
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Differences between men and women in the Czech labour market
Stroukal, Dominik ; Kadeřábková, Božena (advisor) ; Pavelka, Tomáš (referee) ; Němec, Otakar (referee)
This thesis consists of five articles that apply current world research on labor economics at the Czech Republic and confirms the significant differences between men and women in this market. It shows that gender has a significant influence on the preference on the labor market and, consequently, on employment and health. First, the thesis shows that preferences are relevant determinant of career and then we study the difference in preference of salary for men and women. Subsequently it shows that gender plays a significant role in explaining the relationship between homeownership, and unemployment, as well as unemployment and health. The first chapter was able to demonstrate that the preference for a career has a positive influence on the choice of career. The influence of higher education on prioritizing career proved to be positive and significant. Probability of a career choice is reduced by the presence of children, however, is not dependent on their number, which is contrary to the theory of preferences. The second chapter shows that Czech women prefer more non-monetary rewards than men. It has also been shown that people with university education are same in the preferences of non-monetary rewards regardless of the gender of the respondents, however, compared to the world's research, the Czech higher education increases this preference. It turned out that women prefer risk less than men. The third chapter demonstrates that although the housing market undermines labor mobility and employment in the Czech Republic at the regional level, therefore, that in regions with a higher rate of home ownership is higher unemployment, at the individual level, the owners of housing are unemployed are less likely. The estimates are significantly different for men and women. Men living in owner-occupied housing have a higher likelihood of employment than women. At regional level, however, this thesis shows that the high rate of home ownership increases unemployment for both men and women, in the long run only to women. The fourth chapter showed that men transition to homeownership reduces the likelihood of unemployment next year. For women, this relationship has proved to be insignificant. In addition, as insignificant showed the opposite relationship, the transition from unemployment to the newly acquired home ownership. The last chapter shows that the change in the working status to unemployment will increase in the future probability of worse health. Influence in less than two years, however, proved to be significant. An important conclusion is that men have a significantly stronger relationship between health and unemployment than women.
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The capacity of the European Union to form a common foreign policy: The approach towards Russia during the crisis in Ukraine
Grycová, Adéla ; Rolenc, Jan Martin (advisor) ; Cibulková, Petra (referee)
The thesis deals with the issues of framing and europeanization of the foreign policy of the European Union in the context of an actorness of the EU. These two theoretical concepts are applied on the case of an approach of the Czech Republic and European Union towards Russian Federation during the crisis in Ukraine. The aim of this thesis is to find out if the European Union is capabble of affecting the behaviour of a member state in order to create unified and operational foreign policy. The first chapter deals with teoretical definition of the two concepts and detailed description of the stances of Czech Republic and European Union follows in the second one. On the basis of these chapters the assessment is conducted. The last part firstly concludes if any attempt of influecing is present and secondly the success rate of the attempt is evaluated.
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Application of Monte Carlo simulations in banking
Boruta, Matěj ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Fučík, Vojtěch (referee)
Currently, banking is exposed to huge market risks. One of those risks is occurrence of negative interest rates in the EU. Nowadays, it is important to use sophisticated and modern measurement tools and approaches to measure and manage banking risks. One of those methods is Monte Carlo simulation. This bachelor thesis is aimed at analysis and prediction of 3-month maturity Prague Interest Offer Rate (PRIBOR) for 3, 6 and 12 months with using Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that this method is suitable for prediction market variables with low volatility. If anybody uses this method, it is necessity to have in mind all pitfalls and assumptions, that this method includes, as an adequate random generated number of scenarios, approximation of correct probability distribution, independence of dataset and not least, as far as possible, to focus on factors generating randomness of market variable and not the prices, that express rather consequences of randomness than its cause. Further, the Monte Carlo prediction was compared with prognosis of the Czech Nation Bank and it was found that Monte Carlo prediction is more accurate for short term predictions. 12-month prediction of Monte Carlo simulation discovered also possible occurrence of negative interest rate at 0,05% level of probability in compare to the Czech National Bank prognosis, where was no negative interest rate predicted.
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Information content in vocalization of guinea pigs (Cavia porcellus): individual distinction and recognition of predators
Baklová, Aneta ; Baranyiová, Eva (advisor) ; František, František (referee)
Guinea pigs represent domesticated precocious rodents which became common pets. From the first day after birth they are fully vocal. This thesis was devoted
to the vocalization of pups. The aim of the thesis was to 1) determine the age when the vocal individuality in whistle sound is demonstrable; 2) test possible ultrasonic signals emitted by young guinea pigs; 3) study the antipredator reactions and alarm calls to aerial (bird of prey) and terrestrial (dog) predators and human (control test).
A total of 16 guinea pig pups were tested for vocal individuality, 28 pups
for ultrasonic vocalization and 27 adolescents for predator recognition. When testing vocal ontogeny during the first 9 days after birth, I observed changes in temporal, frequency and parameter of intensity . When I test vocal individuality by cross-validated discriminant function analysis (DFA) based on ten acoustic parameters, calls were classified to correct animals with following success: day 1 = 71.9%, day 3 = 58.8%, day 5 = 53.10%, day 7 = 50.60% and day 9 = 63.10%. The highest frequency in whistle was 30.03 kHz. In predator discrimination reactions as freezing, fleeing and vigilance were observed. In the presence of dog, guinea pigs reacted for the longest time and most frequently by freezing. When confronted with a bird of prey, I observed for a longest time and most often fleeing and then freezing. When exposed to a human, guinea pigs showed mostly vigilance. Almost no vocalization was observed except for two events
of alarm calls - drrr as in the presence of dog and chirrup as reaction to bird of prey.
The following conclusions can be drawn from the presented results: 1) vocal individuality of guinea pigs is demonstrable immediately after birth and the rate
of individually different vocal parameters changes with age; 2) guinea pigs are able
to produce sound up to 30 kHz, i.e. within the ultrasound range, but signals of high frequencies are not crucial for their communication; 3) guinea pigs discriminate between terrestrial and aerial predators, but they emit alarm calls rather rarely.
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