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Evaluating a Structural Model Forecast: Decomposition Approach
Brázdik, František ; Humplová, Zuzana ; Kopřiva, František
Macroeconomic forecasters are often criticized for a lack of transparency when presenting their forecasts. To deter such criticism, the transparency of the forecasting process should be enhanced by tracing and explaining the effects of data revisions and expert judgment updates on variations in the forecasts. This paper presents a forecast decomposition analysis framework designed to examine the differences between two forecasts generated by a linear structural model. The differences between the forecasts considered can be decomposed into the contributions of various forecast elements, such as the effect of new data or expert judgment. The framework allows us to evaluate the contributions of forecast assumptions in the presence of expert judgment applied in the expected way. The simplest application of this framework examines alternative forecast scenarios with different forecast assumptions. Next, a one-period difference between the forecasts’ initial periods is added to the examination. Finally, a replication of the Inflation Forecast Evaluation presented in Inflation Report III/2013 is created to illustrate the full capabilities of the decomposition framework.
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Competing on Analytics
Nagin, Gleb ; Pour, Jan (advisor) ; Basl, Josef (referee)
Business analytics refers to the skills, technologies, applications and practisies for continuous iterative exploration and investigation of past business performance to gain insight and drive business planning. Business analytics focuses on developing new insights and understanding of business performance based on data and statistical methods. Business intelligence traditionally focuses on using a consistent set of metrics to both measure past performance and guide business planning, which is also based on data and statistical methods. Analytics makes extensive use of data, statistical or quantitative analyses, explanatory and predictive modeling, and fact based management to drive decision, making. Analytics may be used as input for human decisions or may drive fully automated decisions. In other words, querying, reporting, OLAP, and alert tools can answer questions such as what happened, how many, how often, where the problem is, and what actions are needed. Business analytics can answer questions like why is this happening, what if these trends continue, what will happen next, what is the best that can happen (optimize). Example of application analytics in different areas: banks use data analyses to differentiate among customers based on credit risk, usage of other characteristics with appropriate product offering. Harrah's company (from 2010 renamed and called Caesers entertaiment. Gaming corporation that owns and operate over 50 casinos, hotels, and seven golf courses under several brands), uses analytics for customer loyalty programs. Deere & Company (manufacturer of agricultural machinery like tractors, combine harvesters, sprayers and other) saved more than $1 billion by employing and implementing a new analytical tool to better optimize inventory. We can mention areas where within analytics are basic domain model: sales/retail business, financial services, risk & credit, marketing, fraud, pricing, telecommunications, supply chain, transportation and many others.
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REPORTED CASES OF SCABIES IN KLATOVY REGION FROM 1961 TO 2010
KALČÍKOVÁ, Kateřina
Title of this bachelor thesis is "Reported cases of scabies in Klatovy district from 1961 to 2010". Its theoretical part deals with a description of scabies as an itchy skin parasitic disease, which is still an actual issue worldwide. In the Czech Republic it is the fourth most common infectious disease. This piece of work is focused on anatomy and physiology of skin, morphology of skin changes, etiology and epidemiology of scabies, its clinical image, diagnosis, cure, possible complications and prevention. The practical part composes of quantitative research, for which the method of secondary document analysis was chosen. The data was selected and processed from diaries of infectious diseases and from documents of epidemiological investigation of District Hygiene Station of Pilsen Region - Regional Establishment in Klatovy and from National Health Institute in Prague. The main source of demographic data was public database of Czech statistical office. This part makes a comprehensive overview of the occurrence of reported cases of scabies in Klatovy district in period from 1961 to 2010. The file described on the basis of the annual incidence (per 100 000 inhabitants). Compare the structure of the file (1961 ? 1985 a 1986 ? 2010). I describe a set of terms of age, sex, seasonality and the profession. Comparable data were compared to data for the Czech Republic. Possible causations of different trend in annual incidence of reported cases of scabies in Klatovy district and in the Czech Republic are discussed. The main aim of this work was to get an overview of reported cases of scabies in Klatovy district from 1961 to 2010, and subsequently to compare data of those reported cases with all data available in the Czech Republic, and to make a description of occurrence of reported cases of scabies in Klatovy district in the same period of time, according to age, sex, seasonality and profession. This bachelor thesis can be used as a source of information on scabies morbidity in Klatovy district and the Czech Republic by both professional and laic public.
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Návrh systému hodnocení politik mezi jednotlivými systémy uživatelských informací ve vazbě na efektivní využití výsledků na rozhodovací a informační chování podle modelů a principů udržitelného rozvoje včetně testování a prezentace nástrojů znalostní báze životního prostředí
Ing. Lubomír Nondek, CSc. ; CENIA, česká informační agentura životního prostředí ; Bartoš, Lubomír ; Rollerová, Miluše ; Kodetová, Alžběta ; Cikánková, Jarmila ; Fereš, Jaroslav ; Valta, Jiří ; Kobližková, Edita ; Helová, Simona ; Matoušková, Leona ; Mertl, Jan ; Olivová, Lenka ; Pokorný, Jan ; Doubrava, Pavel ; Nondek, Lubomír
Zpráva popisuje výstupy projektu, jehož cílem bylo navržení ucelené metodické a institucionální základny, která bude vytvářet podklady pro rozhodování, přípravu strategických materiálů a umožní vypracovávat scénáře vývoje životního prostředí. Součástí projektu je návrh hodnocení vytvořených koncepčních materiálů. V rámci projektu byl vypracován přehled standardních technik rozhodování, ověřena aplikovatelnost metody analýzy obalu dat (DEA) a testovány analýzy časových řad. Byl připraven návrh na propojení práce expertů při přípravě pravidelně vydávaných zpráv o stavu životního prostředí a při práci na tvorbě výhledů a scénářů. Byl vypracován návrh na vytvoření pracovní skupiny a koordinačního centra GAINS CENIA pro analýzu scénářů politiky životního prostředí a jeho propojení se souvisejícími aktivitami. Byly zkoumány modely GAINS a LCA model IWM-2. Zpráva obsahuje podrobnější popis výsledků v jednotlivých přílohách.
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Sources of statistical data
Lepša, Ondřej ; Sobíšek, Lukáš (advisor) ; Vintr, Tomáš (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to describe statistical data, processes which lead to the gathering of such data and their usability in practical use. That is achieved by own research of publicly accessible sources of statistical data and companies that provide services in this area. The goal is to simplify orientation of economical subjects in situations wherein is appropriate to use statistical data. The structure of the thesis is divided into four parts. The first part defines the basic principals of statistical data and surveying. The second part devotes to non commercial sources of statistical data, third part addresses to commercial companies that gather statistical data and evaluate them. The last part concerns gathering and processing of company's own statistical data. This part is supplemented by an analysis of a particular survey made by existing company.
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Problems of Sexual Abuse in Childhood
VACHOVÁ, Pavla
The thesis concentrates on the issue of sexual abuse in childhood. The work is divided into four main chapters. The first and second chapter characterizes the development of a role of child from past to the present, particularly in legal terms. The author's focus is dedicated to the term definition of sexual child abuse, data and incidence of sexual abuse in context with other countries. Supported by viewpoint of other authors, a description of different views on sexual abuse of children is presented with specific forms of abuse (contact and non-contact). The third chapter deals with specific risk factors, related to children, the perpetrators (aggressors) and families. Autor´s focus is on the offender (deviant and non-deviant) and their degree of threat. The data is supported by research results published in the Czech Republic and statistical data from OSPOD MLSA. The last, fourth chapter is considered by the author to be of a great importance as it discusses the implications derived from sexual abuse in childhood. This traumatic experience may have crucial impact on further development and quality of life of the victim. The work is concluded with offers of preventative methods and the role of social worker in the process of uncovering a case of sexual abuse of a child.
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Influence of Unemployment on Tuberculosis Distribution in the Czech Republic in 2000-2007
SOPROVÁ, Martina
This degree work dealt with the relation between the occurrence of TBC and the unemployment rate in the Czech Republic between 2000-2007. The work researched whether an increase or decrease in the unemployment rate in the Czech Republic influenced changes in the occurrence of TBC. The work was based on an analysis of data from the Authority of Medical Informatics and Statistics regarding the occurrence of TBC and analysis of the number of unemployed people as stated by the Czech Statistics Bureau. The hypothesis {--} with an increasing number of unemployed people the number of people suffering from TBC is increasing in the Czech Republic {--} was confirmed. Results of the research showed that it is necessary to deal with this issue regularly and intensely and that none of us may remain indifferent towards unemployed people (regardless of the fact whether they suffer from TBC or not) because each of use can suddenly become unemployed. Work has ranked among natural human activities for about ten thousand years. It is the most reliable and longest social support in people{\crq}s lives and its loss usually results in a serious disruption of mental and physical health.
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Evaluation of availability and efficiency of statistical data for research on agricultural geography
Martinát, Stanislav
Paper is dealing with problem of statistical data availability and efficiency for research carried out in agricultural geography. Aim of the paper is to evaluate contemporary state of availability and efficiency of so-called hard data, that are gathered by both govermental (administration) and non-governmental (NGOs) authorities. The most problematic issue availability of data is, respectively its nonavailability on the level of spatial units other than large (regions, districts). Next problem we see in using of different systems of gathering data by various authorities. Problem is also complicated efficiency for time comparisons because of changes in methodologies used in agricultural censuses.
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