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Organized industrial metal markets in the financialized commodity markets
Smolík, Kamil ; Kulhánek, Lumír (referee) ; Myšková, Renáta (referee) ; Rozmahel, Petr (referee) ; Rejnuš, Oldřich (advisor)
In connection to the process of financialization of commodity markets which is caused by the sharp increase of money flowing into the commodity markets, the question of which factors affect commodity and commodity indices prices is discussed. The aim of the dissertation is to determine and quantify the factors affecting the prices of industrial metals during the period of financialization of commodity markets and derive the pricing model of industrial metals, which would be able to generate signals of a possible overvaluation or undervaluation. The paper examined non-ferrous industrial metals traded on the Commodity Exchange LME (London Metal Exchange), namely aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. These metals are also included in the most of the world's composite commodity indices. The dissertation analyzes the contemporary developments in commodity markets; relationship between the price volatility and fundamental factors (including production, consumption and stocks of chosen metals and a wide range of macroeconomic determinants) or the relationship between risk and return of industrial metals. The closing part of the dissertation focuses on the creating of composite pricing indicator for copper and tin by using the Boosted Trees method. The results obtained in the research show that created indicator is able to explain the volatility of the 3m copper futures contracts by 94.25% and 3m futures contracts of tin by 96, 79% in the period from 1/2000 to 3/2015.
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Kvalita bankovních úvěrových portfolií a faktory jejich vývoje ve vybraných zemích EU
Slezáková, Markéta
This diploma thesis focuses on the quality development of bank loan portfolios in the Czech Republic, Federal Republic of Germany and Italy between 2000-2013. Firstly, based on expert studies, the reader is acquainted with the theoretical and methodological bases assessing the quality of loan portfolios, as well as the determinants, which influence credit quality and, finally, with the characteristics of the banking sectors in selected countries. The empirical section of thesis focuses to evaluate the quality of the selected bank loan portfolios in watched period and through correlation analysis is examined which of the selected macroeconomic indicators (GDP, unemployment, inflation, interbank offered rate) mostly affects the loans quality of selected economies. Consequently, there is also a regression analysis to assess the joint impact of individual determinants on loans quality.
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Vliv finanční krize na úvěry v selhání bankovního průmyslu
Koňaříková, Zuzana
This diploma thesis discusses how bank specific determinants and macroeconomic determinants influence non-performing loans in the banks of the G12 and in the Czech Republic in 2000 - 2013, i.e. before and after the financial crisis. The empirical analysis works with a regression model of fixed-effects panel data and uses a sample of 11,386 banks from the Bankscope database. The final results are used to establish recommendations for economic policy makers. The results have shown that non-performing loans for larger and more profitable banks are less susceptible to changes in determinants.
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Zhodnocení vývoje bankovního zprostředkování ve vybraných zemích V4
Jílková, Michaela
This bachelor thesis focuses on the evaluation of bank intermediation development in the Republic of Poland and Hungary between the years of 2002 and 2014. In the thesis, there are also determined the macroeconomic and sectoral indicators that influence the development of the intermediation. The linear dependence of these indicators and those of bank intermediation is examined through correlation analysis.
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Dynamika zmien devízového kurzu v čase
Glaichová, Klaudia
Tato bakalářská práce se zabývá dynamikou změn determinantů devizového kurzu v čase vybraných světových párů - EUR/USD, GBP/USD, JPY/USD. Práce si klade za cíl na základě teoretických přístupů k determinaci devizového kurzu identifikovat makroekonomické ukazatele, které mají vliv na devizový kurz a identifikovat a popsat změny vybraných makroekonomických determinantů pohybu kurzu v čase. Změny determinantů v čase, které mohou být úzce spjaty s chováním a strategií jednotlivých centrálních bank, jsou identifikovány pomocí QLR testu přítomnosti strukturálních zlomů a následně je ověřována statistická významnost těchto zlomů prostřednictvím Chow testu. Závislost mezi jednotlivými měnovými páry a makroekonomickými determinantmi je zkoumána pomocí metody klouzavých korelačních koeficientů při různých délkách okna, jejichž vychýlení jsou v empirické části práce blíže specifikovány a zdůvodněné.
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Non-Performing Loans - Determinants, the Development over Time and the Impact on Banks and the Real Economy
Kafková, Kateřina ; Pečená, Magda (advisor) ; Fanta, Nicolas (referee)
Non-Performing Loans - Determinants, Development over Time and the Impact on Banks and the Real Economy Author: Kateřina Kafková Abstract This thesis explains the concept of non-performing loans (NPL) and analyses factors determining the share of NPLs in total gross loans provided in the Czech Republic. A panel of 24 banks operating in the Czech Republic with annual data from 2010-2019 is analysed. The main estimation method that is used is the difference Generalized Method of Moments. The possible determinants that are examined come from both macroeconomic and banking environment. The results of the estimation provide evidence of the existence of a connection between the NPL ratio and the macroeconomic factors, of which the effect of inflation and unemployment was the most significant. Also, the estimation confirms that the NPL ratio is significantly influenced by the bank-specific determinants, specifically by the effect of the previous values of the NPL ratio and the effect of credit growth. Finally, the thesis discusses the reversed effect - the effect of NPLs on the real economy.
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Organized industrial metal markets in the financialized commodity markets
Smolík, Kamil ; Kulhánek, Lumír (referee) ; Myšková, Renáta (referee) ; Rozmahel, Petr (referee) ; Rejnuš, Oldřich (advisor)
In connection to the process of financialization of commodity markets which is caused by the sharp increase of money flowing into the commodity markets, the question of which factors affect commodity and commodity indices prices is discussed. The aim of the dissertation is to determine and quantify the factors affecting the prices of industrial metals during the period of financialization of commodity markets and derive the pricing model of industrial metals, which would be able to generate signals of a possible overvaluation or undervaluation. The paper examined non-ferrous industrial metals traded on the Commodity Exchange LME (London Metal Exchange), namely aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. These metals are also included in the most of the world's composite commodity indices. The dissertation analyzes the contemporary developments in commodity markets; relationship between the price volatility and fundamental factors (including production, consumption and stocks of chosen metals and a wide range of macroeconomic determinants) or the relationship between risk and return of industrial metals. The closing part of the dissertation focuses on the creating of composite pricing indicator for copper and tin by using the Boosted Trees method. The results obtained in the research show that created indicator is able to explain the volatility of the 3m copper futures contracts by 94.25% and 3m futures contracts of tin by 96, 79% in the period from 1/2000 to 3/2015.
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