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The Trade Effects of the EU-Turkey Customs Union: Based on Gravity Model.
Kong, Xiangyi ; Jeřábek, Petr (advisor) ; Chondrogiannis, Ilias (referee) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
In view of the postponement of negotiations for the modernization of the EU-Turkey customs union, this paper is aimed to look back and examine the ex-post impacts of the CU by examining its trade creation and diversion effects. The study tests effects of 44 countries (including Turkey, 28 EU and 15 non-EU countries) with aggregated data for time period from 1989 to 2019 and disaggregated sectoral trade data from 1995 to 2019. For estimation, the gravity model with strong theoretical and empirical foundation is used by combining various fixed effects with PPML method. The results from the aggregated analysis confirm the trade-promoting effects of the EU-Turkey customs union with mixed effects on both trade within the members (intra-trade creation effects) and trade with non- members (extra-trade creation effects). But the trade diversion is not significantly proved in the model. Besides, a substantial heterogeneity in the CU effect is found across different industries, suggesting the CU has significantly improved the trade on textiles, transportation, machinery, metals and plastics/rubbers, but negligibly influence agriculture, mineral and chemicals. Furthermore, the study also evidences that the impact of the CU is stronger in EU's export to Turkey than Turkey's export to the EU. Finally, CU's...
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Exploring the Interaction between Foreign Direct Investment and International trade with a Focus on CEECs.
Zhang, Ling ; Szobi, Pavel (advisor) ; Figueira, Filipa (referee) ; Jeřábek, Petr (referee)
Our research reveals the impact of foreign direct investment on the intensity of bilateral trade in the Central Eastern European (CEE) region, focusing on countries of Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Estonia (CEE-6). Previous literature and research results indicate that there is a complementary or substitute relationship between FDI and trade. However, the studies of this subject on the CEE region are scarce. Our study employs the gravity model to analyze the impact of FDI on bilateral trade with panel data of each country from 2005 to 2019. Based on the panel data, we investigate the commercial integration among CEE-6 and with main EU commercial partners. Our results suggest a prevalence of complementary relationships in Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia, yet each country demonstrates the relationship through different facts. The complementary relationship is attributed to the prevalent vertical FDI in CEECs, especially in the automotive industry. However, Estonia displays a substitutive relationship between outward FDI and trade. Moreover, we find the commercial integration only exists among the Visegrad group.
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Exchange Rate Volatility Effect on Trade Balance in Czech Republic
Naletova, Anastasiia ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
This master's thesis investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade balance of the Czech Republic during 2005-2016. The analysis is performed on the constructed panel dataset for 53 trading partners of the Czech Republic by estimating the trade gravity models. The realized volatility values are obtained for 43 Czech koruna pairs against the local currencies. The variables included into the empirical analysis are the GDP and population of the Czech Republic and its trading partners, realized volatility, weighted distance, contiguity, direct access to the sea and information on EU and OECD membership. The methodological approaches in the analysis are calculations of realized exchange rate volatility and for gravity models panel data estimation techniques: pooled OLS, fixed effects and random effects. The gravity models are compared by the formal tests, and the most efficient among them is the fixed effects. The results of the estimated augmented model reveal significant positive impact of exchange rate volatility on trade balance of the Czech Republic. The key variables that have the expected significant positive impact on trade balance are GDP of the Czech Republic and its trading partners in the basic model, population of the Czech Republic and EU membership in the augmented model....
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Impact of the FTA between EU and South Korea on the Czech Republic
Maderová, Karolína ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Hayat, Arshad (referee)
In this thesis we study the effect of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between European Union and South Korea, especially on the Czech Republic. To do so, we use gravity model. We specify three different gravity equations, each with a different set of fixed effects, and apply two estimation methods on them: Fixed Effects and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood. Apart from this, we also use traditional indicators (Herfindahl and RCA indices) to assess the changes in trade. The results of the gravity model estimations suggest that the FTA did not have a significant impact on the bilateral trade. However, trade diversification analysis using the Herfindahl index and comparative advantage analysis using the RCA index both indicate that the bilateral trade between the Czech Republic and South Korea improved with the FTA in place.
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Corruption Distance and Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from European Transition Economies
Yu, Bin ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Bruno, Randolph Luca (referee) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
This dissertation builds on Cezar and Escobar's (2015) study of the relationship between institutional distance and foreign direct investment (FDI), but focuses instead on the nexus between corruption distance and FDI. Along the lines of their study, this dissertation uses a two-stage gravity model derived from the framework of heterogeneous firms to empirically estimate the impact of corruption distance on the inward and outward FDI of European transition economies. This dissertation contributes to the literature in several aspects. First, it proposes a new method for measuring corruption distance, considering the importance of firms' previous experience to the development of necessary skills for navigating a foreign business environment. Second, the empirical study distinguished the impact of corruption distance on the extensive and intensive margin by using a rich dataset with three different corruption indices, which thereby differs from most previous studies on this topic. This is also one of the few papers that specifically study this topic in the context of European transition economies. The results show that both conventional and adjusted corruption distance based on the control-of-corruption index only reduces the extensive margin of transition economies' FDI; and that the magnitude of...
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Obchodné vzťahy medzi Indiou a EÚ
Sirovecová, Kristína
Sirovecová, K. Trade relations between India and EU. Bachelor thesis. Brno: Mendel University, 2017. Bachelor thesis deals with the main aspects of bilateral trade between India and EU. The paper analysed the development of their trade with regard to mutual agreements, as well as significant trade barriers. The gravity model regression analysis is an assessment of their impact on Indian imports of individual EU countries.
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Netarifní omezení obchodu mezi ČR a USA
Chalupníková, Kristina
Chalupníková, K. Non-tariff barriers to trade between CZ and USA. Bachelor thesis. Brno: Mendel University, 2017. Bachelor thesis deals with the problem of non-tariff barriers between the Czech Republic and the USA. The aim of this thesis is to characterize the barriers to trade and evaluate their impact on mutual trade of these two countries. Regression analysis explains here the impact of non-tariff restrictions and other variables on export from the Czech Republic to the USA.
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Dynamika zahraničního obchodu Slovenské republiky se státy EU
Havlíčková, Martina
HAVLÍČKOVÁ, M., Dynamics of the comparative advantages in Slovak exports com-pared to the European Union. Diploma thesis. Brno: Mendel University in Brno. 2017. The thesis deals with the evaluation of the development of Slovak exports in rela-tion to the changes that occurred after theaccession of the Slovac Republic to the EU or as a result of the crisis in 2008 and 2009 The data analysed in this thesis come from the website of the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic and Eurostat. The aim of the thesis is to evaluate the dynamics of comparative advantages of the Slovak economy in terms of export some groups of products according to the classification SITC1 compared to the countries of the European Union using gravity model and regression analysis.
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Determinanty zahraničního obchodu České republiky se zeměmi OECD
Vaněk, Tomáš
The diploma thesis is devoted to determining factors influencing the intensity of two-way trade between the Czech Republic and other member countries of the OECD. In order to fulfil this objective, a model based on principles of the so called gravity equation is constructed. Using a dataset of 35 cross-sectional units (repre-senting the 35 member states of the OECD), observed during the 2007–2016 pe-riod, the impact of the economically relevant variables on the volume of Czech export and import is estimated. Apart from the usual panel data analysis, the vari-ability of the regression parametres within the given time time period is also ex-amined, using cross-sectional approach. Obtained results, among other things, suggest that the impact of the selected explanatory variables on Czech export and import can be considered rather symmetrical.
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