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Effect of real exchange rate to productivity and trade of Kenyan tea industry
Mwangi, Speranza Njeri
The aim of this thesis was to understand the relationship between real exchange rates and tea productivity in Kenya. The study was anchored by the Keynesian model of open economies, the Gravity model, the Porters Competitive Model, the Solow Growth Model and the Heckscher-Ohlin model. The study focused on the period 1993 -2022. The study used time series data. The overall objective of the thesis was done through the evaluation of two specific objectives. The first specific objective was to determine the effect of the real exchange rate on the productivity of tea in Kenya. The independent variables included real effective exchange rate, precipitation, and degree of openness. It was found that the real effective exchange rate and the precipitation had a positive and statistically significant effect on productivity. The degree of openness was found to have a negative and statistically insignificant effect on productivity. The second objective of the study was to determine the effect of the exchange rate on the of Kenyan tea. The study established that the real effective exchange rate had a positive but statistically insignificant effect on the trade in Kenyan tea. The study established that the trade of competitor’s tea had a positive and statistically significant effect on trade in Kenyan tea. The study also established that relative prices had a negative and statistically significant effect on the trade in Kenyan tea. Based on the findings, it was recommended that the government of Kenya work to maintain the shilling at levels that stimulate productivity and enact measures to increase the quality and branding of Kenya tea to increase the international competitiveness of Kenyan tea.
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Economic prospects of Kyrgyzstan from a geopolitical perspective
Loboda, Aleksandra ; Romancov, Michael (advisor) ; Aslan, Emil (referee)
This thesis will analyze the economic and political prospects of Kyrgyzstan based on the geopolitics of the country. This thesis will provide data on Kyrgyzstan's political, economic, and diplomatic relations over the past thirty years with the following countries: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, China, Russia, and the United States. Imports and exports between the countries will also be provided and analyzed in the second half of the paper. Using the method of comparing qualitative and quantitative data, conclusions will be drawn as to which direction Kyrgyzstan should take as a small developing country. It is not about minute-by-minute actions, but rather long-term actions that will have a tremendous weight on the economic development of the country in the future. The paper essentially comes to the conclusion that the best development for Kyrgyzstan will be if the country manages to reduce its dependence on Russia and explore other trade routes and other trade partners.
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The Impact of Sanctions on International Trade during 1995-2020: An Empirical Analysis
Symerská, Pavlína ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Eshun, Samuel Fiifi (referee)
Since economic sanctions became over the history a tremendously popular inter- national policy tool and the level of worldwide integration gradually increases, this thesis investigates the impact of trade sanctions implemented sharply be- tween 1995 and 2020 on bilateral trade flow. The empirical analysis was pro- vided through a gravity model, the OLS with fixed effects and the PPML, and sourced the information from the Global Sanction Database (volume 3) and from the CEPII Gravity Database. The results indicate not only a strong ef- fect during the implementation period, but its significant duration up to four years after the lift. Concluding remarks from this thesis might be valuable espe- cially for policymakers when deciding upon the most appropriate international provisions. JEL Classification F14, F18, F51, F60, N40 Keywords trade sanctions; exports; trade; the GSDB Title The Impact of Sanctions on International Trade during 1995-2020: An Empirical Analysis Author's e-mail 31052687@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail vilem.semerak@fsv.cuni.cz
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Comparison of Factors Determining Czech Exports in Different Aggregations: Analysis by means of an Adjusted Gravity Model
Smotlachová, Eva ; Benáček, Vladimír (advisor) ; Bobková, Božena (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to estimate determinants of Czech export. The key novelty of the research consists in estimating export flows at three different levels of aggregation (total, machinery, automobiles) and a subsequent comparison of results. An augmented gravity model is implemented for the empirical research and estimated with the use of Ordinary least squares (including time or country dummies) and Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimators. Consequently, we propose the comparison based on the Poisson estimates due to incontestable weaknesses of the OLS estimator. Besides, we emphasize the importance of identifying the panel data structure, as we have obtained different results under the two structures (time series and cross-sectional). The predicted models reveal a substantial impact of home and partner's GDP, distance and the European Union. Total and machinery export seem to follow same tendencies, whereas the development of Czech automobile export differs and evolves on an idiosyncratic path. Therefore, it does not coincide with a path expected by trade theories based on the assumption of perfect competitive markets.
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Macroeconomic factors and stock returns: Evidence from three Central and East European countries
Tung, Christopher ; Novák, Jiří (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
This dissertation deals with the links between stock market returns and foreign exchange rates, industrial production and exports to Germany in three Central and East European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland). The main questions addressed are: "Do macroeconomic factors related to foreign exchange rates and industrial production affect stock market returns in the Visegrad-3? And what is the impact of exports to Germany on those stock returns?" This analysis makes use of panel-data and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) to produce results. Firstly, foreign exchange rates are found to have a negative effect on stock returns. However the divergence in currency returns between the three countries means that the overall effect may be due to some factors that are not accounted for in this analysis. Secondly, there is a positive, but lagged, association between industrial production and stock returns. Thirdly, exports to Germany from the region are also found to have a positive impact on the stock returns of the Visegrad-3. Finally, there is divergence among the three countries with respect to the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and stock returns. Poland and Hungary are seen to exert a significant amount of influence over the region's stock markets.
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Impact of increasing returns to scale and imperfect competition on international trade in automotive industry: Czech republic - Germany intra-industry trade
Tomo, Ján ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Vukelić, Tatjana (referee)
This paper analyzes the impact of increasing returns to scale and imperfect competition in international trade with a focus on the automotive industry and trade between the Czech Republic and Germany in this sector . Because increasing returns to scale can not exist in perfect competition, they promote the differentiation of products and manufacturers attempt to differentiate their products from the others and get their share in international trade. This gives rise to intra-industry trade, where countries trade in similar goods that may differ either in quality or in completely different characteristics. These into detail analyzed theoretical bases I try to apply to a case study of mutual intra-industry trade between Czech Republic and Germany with a focus on the automotive industry, which makes up about a quarter of the Czech Republic industrial output, accounts for approximately ten percent of the gross domestic product, while exports of road vehicles represent about 17% of total exports. Germany as a major trading partner of the Czech Republic and the world's number one superpower in exports of machinery and transport equipment, imports a substantial part of the production of the Czech automotive industry and also exports its own products of the industry to the Czech Republic. This work aims to analyze...
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Evaluation of Effects of "Cash for Clunkers"-like programs on car markets and macroeconomic situation
Fiebig, Florian ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
Bachelor's Thesis Proposal Institute of Economic Studies Faculty of Social Sciences Charles University in Prague Author Florian Fiebig Supervisor Mgr. Ing. Vilém Semerák PhD. Proposed topic: The Impact of German policy, cash for clunkers, on the Czech market in regards to price level and output. Topic characteristics After the financial crisis in 2007-08, governments all over the world tried using several policies in order to promote growth and stability for their economies. On July 1, 2009, the USA launched its policy "Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS)", commonly known as "Cash for clunkers." It was a program designed to boost car sales, by giving the US residents an economic incentive swap their old and economic inefficient cars for brand new models that are more fuel efficient as well as produce less CO2. In the same year, Germany tried to promote growth and stability using the same policy/program. However, this policy did not just had an impact on the German economy, but its neighbors as well. In addition to that, it is interesting to find out if this policy was beneficial to implement or rather harming the economy even further. Although several papers conducted research on the effects of the cash-for-clunkers policy, I will focus on the effects that the German policy had on the Czech economy with...
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Evaluating China's Presence in South America
Mariaca, Abril Valeria ; Daza Aramayo, Lourdes (advisor) ; Krausz Hladká, Malvína (referee)
CHARLES UNIVERSITY IN PRAGUE FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Institute of Political Studies Master Thesis 2020 Abril V. Mariaca CHARLES UNIVERSITY IN PRAGUE FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Institute of Political Studies Abril V. Mariaca Evaluating China's Presence in South America Master Thesis Prague 2020 Author: Abril V. Mariaca Supervisor: Prof. Ing. Lourdes Daza Aramayo, PhD. Academic Year: 2019/2020 Abstract China is poised to become Latin America's largest trading partner and primary influence due to the steady rising of deals, economic financing, investments, and cultural exchanges implemented by China in the region. As such, China has used different tactics to ensure that it will continue to exert influence and gain access to strategic energy assets in the region. This thesis analyzes how Chinese engagement and presence has impacted South America's export basket. Consequently, China's presence has positioned Latin America back into a world of primary product dependency, limiting the development of high value-added exports, and adding consequences such as environmental and social conflicts across the region. The final section recommends proposals on how the region can better respond to and invest in the relationship, so that both China and Latin America can benefit from what is now an asymmetric relationship.
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Mexico's Trade Policy During the Pena Nieto Administration
Ferrara Torres, Geovanna ; Kozák, Kryštof (advisor) ; Benáček, Vladimír (referee)
Mexico's Trade Policy During The Pe Kryštof Kozák, Ph.D. Despite the efforts of trading with other countries, there is still a dominant economic dependence on the United States due to the NAFTA agreement. The master thesis studies Mexico's trade policy and its effects on trade during the Peña Nieto administration with particular attention paid to how the government has tried to diversify trade. A descriptive analysis is used with research in exports, imports and foreign direct investment.
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Evaluation of Effects of "Cash for Clunkers"-like programs on car markets and macroeconomic situation
Fiebig, Florian ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
Bachelor's Thesis Proposal Institute of Economic Studies Faculty of Social Sciences Charles University in Prague Author Florian Fiebig Supervisor Mgr. Ing. Vilém Semerák PhD. Proposed topic: The Impact of German policy, cash for clunkers, on the Czech market in regards to price level and output. Topic characteristics After the financial crisis in 2007-08, governments all over the world tried using several policies in order to promote growth and stability for their economies. On July 1, 2009, the USA launched its policy "Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS)", commonly known as "Cash for clunkers." It was a program designed to boost car sales, by giving the US residents an economic incentive swap their old and economic inefficient cars for brand new models that are more fuel efficient as well as produce less CO2. In the same year, Germany tried to promote growth and stability using the same policy/program. However, this policy did not just had an impact on the German economy, but its neighbors as well. In addition to that, it is interesting to find out if this policy was beneficial to implement or rather harming the economy even further. Although several papers conducted research on the effects of the cash-for-clunkers policy, I will focus on the effects that the German policy had on the Czech economy with...
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