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Estimating the effective lower bound for the Czech National Bank’s policy rate
Kolcunová, Dominika ; Havránek, Tomáš
This paper focuses on the estimation of the effective lower bound on the Czech National Bank’s policy rate. The effective lower bound is determined by the value below which holding and using cash would be preferable to holding deposits with negative yields. This bound is approximated on the basis of the storage, insurance and transport costs of cash and the loss of convenience associated with cashless payments. This estimate is complemented by a calculation based on interest charges reflecting the impact of negative rates on banks’ profitability. Overall, we get a mean of slightly below –1%, approximately in the interval (–2.0%, –0.4%). In addition, by means of a vector autoregression we show that the potential of negative rates is not sufficient to deliver monetary policy easing similar in its effects to the impact of the Czech National Bank’s exchange rate commitment during the years 2013–2017.
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Negative interest rates in the context of deflation threats
Jenis, Filip ; Koderová, Jitka (advisor) ; Metrah, Samy (referee)
The introduction of negative interest rates, as an additional tool of unconventional monetary policy in recent years, leads to many, yet largely polarized debates about the implications of the unconventional monetary policy of central banks. The main reason for their introduction in some economies, namely the threat of deflation, is also questioned, as well as the negative side effects of this instrument on financial stability and economic growth, and finally, their limited scope is under scrutiny. Due to the still insufficient research in this field, the aim of the diploma thesis is to evaluate the concerns and the main long-term risks and impacts of the monetary policy using negative interest rates in the context of deflation threats. The analysis of available data confirms both the concerns about the negative effects of negative interest rates on the banking sector, the recovery process of public finances, the possible rise of a price bubble on the financial markets and real estate markets, or on the possibility of excessive risk taking, and on the other hand draws attention to the direct dependence between negative impacts and the duration of monetary policy using negative interest rates.
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Negative Interest Rates - How Far Can They Go?
Ján, Jan ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Jašová, Martina (referee)
Bachelor thesis is focused on one of the most topical themes in the field of a monetary policy, the negative interest rates. Until recent times the effective lower bound of interest rates imposed by central banks was thought to be the strict null but macroeconomic conditions of certain European countries or Japan made policy makers start to experiment with the unexplored tool of a monetary policy. They broke the zero lower bound and employed the negative interest rates. Since it seems that the effective lower bound would not be zero but it is situated in the negative territory probably - and the thesis tries to find such a value. The discussion starts at the beginning of the twentieth century with the well-known economist Silvio Gesell, then continues to present and gives a view of the countries, which have already implemented negative interest rates in some form. Additionally, the thesis is focused on the issue concerning an increase in risks presented by the financial markets arising from this monetary policy. Last but not least, it takes into account the problem of the substitution from electronic money to cash, how this constraint can be overcome and on what level of negative interest rates this could take place.
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