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Non-conventional data assimilation in high resolution numerical weather prediction model with study of the slow manifold of the model
Benáček, Patrik ; Brožková, Radmila (advisor) ; Derková, Mária (referee) ; Randriamampianina, Roger (referee)
Satellite instruments currently provide the largest source of infor- mation to today's data assimilation (DA) systems for numerical weather predic- tion (NWP). With the development of high-resolution models, the efficient use of observations at high density is essential to improve small-scale information in the weather forecast. However, a large amount of satellite radiances has to be removed from DA by horizontal data thinning due to uncorrelated observation error assumptions. Moreover, satellite radiances include systematic errors (biases) that may be even larger than the observation signal itself, and must be properly removed prior to DA. Although the Variational Bias Correction (VarBC) scheme is widely used by global NWP centers, there are still open questions regarding its use in Limited-Area Models (LAMs). This thesis aims to tackle the obser- vation error difficulties in assimilating polar satellite radiances in the meso-scale ALADIN system. Firstly, we evaluate spatial- and inter-channel error correla- tions to enhance the positive effect of data thinning. Secondly, we study satellite radiance bias characteristics with the key aspects of the VarBC in LAMs, and we compare the different VarBC configurations with regards to forecast performance. This work is a step towards improving the...
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Rational Irrationality in the USA
Kleňha, Jan ; Kozák, Kryštof (advisor) ; Calda, Miloš (referee)
In this thesis, the theory of rational irrationality is used to explore the incentives behind seemingly irrational beliefs held by a large part of the contemporary American society towards anthropogenic climate change. Applying causal analysis, three questions are answered: "is it rationally irrational for people to be indifferent towards climate change?" "Are Americans inherently more likely than others to hold irrational beliefs about global issues such as climate change?" If so, "is this phenomenon rooted in certain values that constitute the American identity?" The author focuses on specific "American values" and uses statistics and recent empirical studies to find correlations and causality between those values and the exhibited behavior of individuals, while discussing its possible causes and implications. The study concludes that the root cause of irresponsibility of the American citizen towards climate change is a lack of social mechanisms rewarding individuals for holding epistemologically accurate beliefs. The author then proposes a set of general measures to be prioritized in order to improve social reward mechanisms in the American society. If implemented, those measures should be able to effectively enforce epistemic rationality in the U.S. political debate, which is desirable...
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Non-conventional data assimilation in high resolution numerical weather prediction model with study of the slow manifold of the model
Benáček, Patrik ; Brožková, Radmila (advisor) ; Derková, Mária (referee) ; Randriamampianina, Roger (referee)
Satellite instruments currently provide the largest source of infor- mation to today's data assimilation (DA) systems for numerical weather predic- tion (NWP). With the development of high-resolution models, the efficient use of observations at high density is essential to improve small-scale information in the weather forecast. However, a large amount of satellite radiances has to be removed from DA by horizontal data thinning due to uncorrelated observation error assumptions. Moreover, satellite radiances include systematic errors (biases) that may be even larger than the observation signal itself, and must be properly removed prior to DA. Although the Variational Bias Correction (VarBC) scheme is widely used by global NWP centers, there are still open questions regarding its use in Limited-Area Models (LAMs). This thesis aims to tackle the obser- vation error difficulties in assimilating polar satellite radiances in the meso-scale ALADIN system. Firstly, we evaluate spatial- and inter-channel error correla- tions to enhance the positive effect of data thinning. Secondly, we study satellite radiance bias characteristics with the key aspects of the VarBC in LAMs, and we compare the different VarBC configurations with regards to forecast performance. This work is a step towards improving the...
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A behavioral analysis of market failures
Urbanová, Aneta ; Sieber, Martina (advisor) ; Vlček, Josef (referee)
The thesis deals with a contemporary stream of the behavioral economics at the labour market in connection with a divergence to the neoclassical theory based on explicit assumption of rationality. The existing theoretical approaches and the examples of experiments are introduced in the theoretical part. The irrational impacts on labour market is defined by the amount of wage, unemployment, education, but on the other hand also by motivation, loss aversion, prejudices and other cognitive biases in human decision making process. The practical part is based on the standardized questionnaire survey in which the respondents were given some simplified decision making dilemmas in context of the labour market. The aim of the thesis is to observe their tendency to choose not always the most effective option and to validate the impact of irrational factors on decision making according to the theoretical approaches. Key words: Behavioral economics, limited rationality, market failures, labour market, prospect theory, heuristics, biases
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Rational Irrationality in the USA
Kleňha, Jan ; Kozák, Kryštof (advisor) ; Calda, Miloš (referee)
In this thesis, the theory of rational irrationality is used to explore the incentives behind seemingly irrational beliefs held by a large part of the contemporary American society towards anthropogenic climate change. Applying causal analysis, three questions are answered: "is it rationally irrational for people to be indifferent towards climate change?" "Are Americans inherently more likely than others to hold irrational beliefs about global issues such as climate change?" If so, "is this phenomenon rooted in certain values that constitute the American identity?" The author focuses on specific "American values" and uses statistics and recent empirical studies to find correlations and causality between those values and the exhibited behavior of individuals, while discussing its possible causes and implications. The study concludes that the root cause of irresponsibility of the American citizen towards climate change is a lack of social mechanisms rewarding individuals for holding epistemologically accurate beliefs. The author then proposes a set of general measures to be prioritized in order to improve social reward mechanisms in the American society. If implemented, those measures should be able to effectively enforce epistemic rationality in the U.S. political debate, which is desirable...
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The Role of Aggression in Human Evolution, 1963-2000. Authors, theories, contexts
Mydlová, Miriama ; Stella, Marco (advisor) ; Hroníková, Linda (referee)
Presented work is an overview of contemporary evolutionary biological theories of aggression, since the breakthrough works of Robert Ardrey and Konrad Lorenz from the 1960s and ending with contemporary evolutionary ethics of Robert Wright and Frans de Waal and also evolutionary anthropology, represented for example by Richard Wrangham. Work is highlighting the continuity of development of the theories and their placement into the context of evolutionary biology. In addition, it is dealing with critical analysis (in terms of discourse analysis) of these theories and their language, taking into account sociocultural influences acting on authors during their formation. It is the analysis of patterns of thinking, argumentation elements and strategies of authors, who deal with issues of the evolutionary background of the origin of human aggression. However, ambition of the second part is not the deconstruction of the theories. Contrarily it strives for positive, integrative approach. By categories of class, gender, race, etc. conditional misrepresentation (bias) of acquried data (e.g. by observation), their interpretation by authors themselves and their popularization, will be understood there as a factor entering into the assessment of theories, but it is not a priori considered as evidence of...
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An evaluation of real GDP growth forecasts
Kačmareková, Monika ; Jablonský, Petr (advisor) ; Dobrovolný, Marek (referee)
This paper is aimed at verifying the reliability of real GDP growth forecasts for Czech Republic periodically published. Concretely the prediction of different groups of institutions have been examined. It includes analysis of forecasts for the period 2003-2011. Evaluation criteria for assessing their accuracy consist of summary statistics, directional accuracy rate and graphical illustration of avereged prediction. These evaluation methods are important for the hypothesis verification. It has been demonstrated the ability to deliver more accurate forecasts in comparison with earlier period in a specific horizon, next, a rising precision of predictions with declining time horizon, systematic underestimation of forecasts in the time of expansion and overestimation in the time of recession. At last, the conducted analysis displays that czech institutions are doing not considerably better in forecasting real GPD growth.
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