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Causes and possible consequences of the end of U.S. dollar excusivity on oil markets
Zukerstein, Jaroslav ; Kozák, Kryštof (advisor) ; Svoboda, Karel (referee)
The United States are today the most indebted country in the world. However, they do not face the distrust of financial markets as some European countries. Washington, until now, could afford rapidly growing and de facto risk-free debt thanks to the exclusive position of the U.S. dollar on oil markets and the petrodollar recycling system. With the implementation of the new common European currency, however, the dominant position of the dollar on oil markets came to the end, important oil producers, including OPEC members, turned away from the U.S. currency, so the sustainability of the current, unusually favorable system for the Americans, is questionable. Bachelor thesis entitled Causes and possible consequences of the end of U.S. dollar exclusivity on oil markets reflects the unprecedented influence of the United States in the international monetary system which they controlled through the oil business, it presents the risks and benefits of petrodollar recycling, it analyzes the effects of changes on oil market, it assess the importance of oil bourses that explicitly reject the U.S. dollar and in the conclusion, on the basis of information and experience from the era when the dollar was backed with oil, it answers the question whether this system, maintained by force and controversial alliances,...
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Analysis of the Factors of Collapse of the Bretton Woods Monetary System
Havlíček, Jiří ; Johnson, Zdenka (advisor) ; Chalupecký, Petr (referee)
This bachelor thesis focuses on the Bretton Woods monetary system which was the important factor influencing the international economic situation since the end of World War II until the beginning of the 1970s. Specifically, the thesis focuses on the analysis of factors which led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system and tries to answer the question if the main reason of the collapse was irresponsible fiscal policy of the USA. In the first part, there is a description of creation, final version of the Bretton Woods agreement, and key institutions of the system. Main part of thesis is divided into the three subchapters. Each one adresses one of the three major problems of the Bretton Woods monetary system, which were adjustment problem, liquidity problem, and confidence problem. There is an analysis of causes and consequences of each issue. Conclusion of the thesis is the statement that fiscal policy of the USA was not either underlying, or original cause of the collapse of the system, however the fiscal policy of the USA worsened the situation and greatly accelerated the collapse of the system. But it is not possible to identify the key problem, the issues were too much interrelated to determine the most critical.
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Role amerického dolaru jako světové měny ve druhé polovině dvacátého století
Pavelec, Boris ; Johnson, Zdenka (advisor) ; Chalupecký, Petr (referee)
This thesis maps the role of the U.S. dollar as an international currency with a main focus on the second half of the 20th century and the role of dollar in the world economy. The thesis spans from the end of the Second World War to the eve of the last global financial crisis. The thesis documents, how dollar became the leading international currency during the Bretton Woods system era. Although the inner conflicts led to breakup of the system, dollar remained the most important currency. Despite many attempts, a successful reform of the international monetary system never happened since then. In the last 30 years, the uncoordinated U.S. monetary policy led to rapid growth of imbalances in the world economy and consequently to the 2007/08 Financial crisis. The thesis shows that the viable reform can build on the original plan of John M. Keynes, which prepared for the Bretton Woods conference.
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Significant economic events from perspective of U.S. balance of payments and its specifics
Trampota, Simon ; Šíma, Ondřej (advisor) ; Pour, Jiří (referee)
The primary aim of this bachelor thesis is to acquaint the reader with the U.S. balance of payments, to become familiar with its specifics and then with its help to interpret the impact of key events. The thesis is divided into three main chapters. First chapter is focused on the theory of the balance of payments and its individual accounts. Second chapter deals specifically with the U.S. balance of payments. First the attention is paid to the overall development followed by a mention of the relationship between public debt and current account deficit. This chapter also includes the issue of the U.S. dollar in the position of the main reserve currency. Ending of this chapter is connected with the theme of global imbalances and the paradox of the U.S. net international investment position. The chapter three is made up of individual events, included are also their causes and consequences. The most space is devoted to the subprime mortgage crisis and financial crisis. The main purpose of the final chapter is to provide perspective on these events through the U.S. balance of payments.
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Methods of prediction of currency courses
Pour, Jiří ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Langer, Miroslav (referee)
The bachelor thesis deals with two methods of prediction of currency courses - the Power Price Parity theory and the Balance of Payments theory. At the begining there is a description of a currency course in general and basic methods of its prediction - fundamental and technical analysis. The main part of the thesis deals with the two methods of prediction mentioned above. Each theory is described, criticised and empirically compared with historical data from years 1999-2010 in separated chapters. The chapter about the balace of payments includes lots of charts illustrating the structures of balances of payments of the United States, the European Monetary Union and the Czech Republic.
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Methods of prediction of the exchange rate and exchange rate analysis of selected countries
Shchehlyuk, Oleksandr ; Brůna, Karel (advisor)
In this thesis the author deals with the exchange rate prediction methods, namely the theory of purchasing power parity, interest parity theory and the theory of balance of payments. At the beginning of the work, all these methods briefly described in the next section are applied to the currency pair USD / JPY. The analysis was performed on 20 years period between 1990 and 2010. For the analysis of the theory of rates, purchasing power and interest were used monthly data for the analysis of balance of payments authors used annual data, given the length of the period under review more detailed breakdown would be unclear. At the end of the analysis, I analyzed the different factors and explanations that could affect the currency pair USD / JPY over the period. In this section I emphasized the official institutions intervention in the foreign exchange market. In conclusion, I summarize the identified knowledge and express their own opinions on the matter.
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The future of the Dollar as the global currency
Príkopa, Ivan ; Šaroch, Stanislav (advisor) ; Sudliankou, Aliaksandr (referee)
The main goal of my bachelor thesis is to consider past and present position of the U.S. Dollar in the world economy and possible development in the future. In the first chapter, I focus on the entry of the Dollar among the world currencies, mainly on the reasons for abandonment the British pound as a former global currency. In the next part, I consider usage and significance of the American currency in the world. The last chapter is aimed at possible future perspectives in the area of the global currencies. Part is mainly concerned on the alternatives of the Dollar in his position. Then I focus on opinions of the experts in this field. Each author shows different point of view on the problem and together, they give broad perspective about the future. Important was also concerning the attitude of China, as the main holder of Dollar reserves.
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Methods of prediction of exchange rate and analysis of the exchange rate of selected country
Burdeláková, Ingrida ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with possibilities of prediction of future development of exchange rate. The exchange rate is shortly characterized at the beginning together with approaches of its determination like technical and fundamental analysis. Further three methods of long-time forecasting like purchasing power parity, interest rate parity and balance of payments theory are explained in more details. Practical part begins with description of the euro and real development of its exchange rate to U.S. dollar from the implementation of the euro in 1999 till the end of the year 2009. The validity of individual theories from the theoretical part is verified through formulas and other methods based on information about inflation rate, interest rate and balances of payments. Results of selected approaches are summarized in conclusion together with suitability of their practical application and possible reasons of differences between theory and reality.
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