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Topics in Yield Curve Modeling
Kučera, Adam ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Horváth, Roman (referee) ; Mandel, Martin (referee) ; Berka, Martin (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to examine the interaction of macroeconomic and fi- nancial factors through the lens of yield curve dynamics. The thesis consists of three essays that jointly demonstrate the complexity of information incorporated in the yield curve and the importance of attributing yield curve movements to those factors correctly. The first essay uses news-based approach to identify triggers of the U.S. Treasury yield curve movements and demonstrates shifts in the importance of various causes of the movements. The second essay further evaluates the transmission of fiscal policy shocks to the U.S. Treasury yield curve. The first and the second essay together contribute to the literature by showing that the factors beyond the U.S. economic conditions and monetary policy have been becoming an increasingly important cause of the U.S. yield curve movements. These factors include changes in portfolio allocation, cross-border flight to quality and changes in fiscal policy. The third essay proposes a novel method to apply the up-to-date yield curve models to a government bond yield curve in an economy with a relatively shallow government bond market, using the case of the Czech government bond yield curve. This enables decomposing the yield curve and interpreting its movements while accounting for...
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Yield Curve Modeling and the Effect of Macroeconomic Drivers: Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Approach
Patáková, Magdalena ; Šopov, Boril (advisor) ; Vošvrda, Miloslav (referee)
The thesis focuses on the yield curve modeling using the dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach. We propose two models of the yield curve and apply them on four currency areas - USD, EUR, GBP and CZK. At first, we distill the entire yield curve into the time-varying level, slope and curvature factors and estimate the parameters for individual currencies. Subsequently, we build a novel model investigating to what extent unobservable factors of the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model are determined by macroeconomic drivers. The main contribution of this thesis resides in the innovative approach to yield curve modeling with the application of advanced technical tools. Our primary objective was to increase the accuracy and the estimation power of the model. Moreover, we applied both models across different currency areas, which enabled us to compare the dynamics of the yield curves as well as the influence of the macroeconomic drivers. Interestingly, the results proved that both models we developed not only demonstrate strong validity, but also produce powerful estimates across all examined currencies. In addition, the incorporated macroeconomic factors contributed to reach higher precision of the modeling. JEL Classification: C51, C53, G17 Keywords: Nelson-Siegel, Kalman filter, Kalman smoother, Stace space formulation...
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Modelling of yield curves
Šmejkal, Jan ; Hurt, Jan (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
In practice, yield curves, i.e. plots of relation between yields and times to maturity for a group of comparable securities, are an important tool for assets and liabilities pricing as well as for financial decision making. The theoretical risk-free yield curve represents the term structure of interest rates that are used e.g. in insurance industry for pricing the liabilities, for which reserves are created, or also as a benchmark for pricing other assets in the market. When constructing the yield curve, it is not possible to observe yields of a group of assets for all maturities. That is why we use various mathematical methods which enable us to construct the yield curve also for unobserved maturities. In this thesis, some of these methods are introduced. The Svensson's method is one of the most important and frequently used ones. We use this method to derive the coupon curve from Czech government bonds aiming to construct the risk-free zero coupon yield curve. Later on, we use different weights for particular bonds trying to improve pricing of all the bonds based on the derived curve. Then, we also look for the curve that minimizes the mean squared error of estimated (compared to observed) prices. Because problems with liquidity can appear especially for long maturities, we apply all of the procedures to a...
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Yield Curves
Korbel, Michal ; Hurt, Jan (advisor) ; Hlávka, Zdeněk (referee)
The master thesis is looking into the estimation of yield curve using two ap- proaches. The first one is searching for parametric model which is able to describe the behavior of yield curve well and estimate its parameters. The parametric mo- dels used in the thesis are derived from the class of models introduced by Nelson and Siegel. The second approach is nonparametric estimation of yield curves using spline smoothing and kernel smoothing. All used methods are then compared on real observed data and their suitability for various tasks and concrete available observations is considered. 1
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Updating the Ultimate Forward Rate over Time: a Possible Approach
Žigraiová, Diana ; Jakubík, Petr
This study proposes a potential methodological approach to be used by regulators when updating the Ultimate Forward Rate (UFR) for the evaluation of insurers’ liabilities beyond the last liquid point observable in the market. Our approach is based on the optimisation of two contradictory aspects – stability and accuracy implied by economic fundamentals. We use U.S. Treasury term structure data over the period 1985-2015 to calibrate an algorithm that dynamically revises the UFR based on the distance between the value implied by the long-term growth of economic fundamentals in a given year and the regulatory value of the UFR valid in the prior year. We employ both the Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models to extrapolate yields over maturities of 21-30 years employing the selected value of the UFR and compare them with the observed yields using the mean square error statistic. Furthermore, we optimise the parameters of the proposed UFR formula by minimising the defined loss function capturing both mentioned factors.
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Modelling of yield curves
Šmejkal, Jan ; Hurt, Jan (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
In practice, yield curves, i.e. plots of relation between yields and times to maturity for a group of comparable securities, are an important tool for assets and liabilities pricing as well as for financial decision making. The theoretical risk-free yield curve represents the term structure of interest rates that are used e.g. in insurance industry for pricing the liabilities, for which reserves are created, or also as a benchmark for pricing other assets in the market. When constructing the yield curve, it is not possible to observe yields of a group of assets for all maturities. That is why we use various mathematical methods which enable us to construct the yield curve also for unobserved maturities. In this thesis, some of these methods are introduced. The Svensson's method is one of the most important and frequently used ones. We use this method to derive the coupon curve from Czech government bonds aiming to construct the risk-free zero coupon yield curve. Later on, we use different weights for particular bonds trying to improve pricing of all the bonds based on the derived curve. Then, we also look for the curve that minimizes the mean squared error of estimated (compared to observed) prices. Because problems with liquidity can appear especially for long maturities, we apply all of the procedures to a...
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Yield Curve Modeling and the Effect of Macroeconomic Drivers: Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Approach
Patáková, Magdalena ; Šopov, Boril (advisor) ; Vošvrda, Miloslav (referee)
The thesis focuses on the yield curve modeling using the dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach. We propose two models of the yield curve and apply them on four currency areas - USD, EUR, GBP and CZK. At first, we distill the entire yield curve into the time-varying level, slope and curvature factors and estimate the parameters for individual currencies. Subsequently, we build a novel model investigating to what extent unobservable factors of the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model are determined by macroeconomic drivers. The main contribution of this thesis resides in the innovative approach to yield curve modeling with the application of advanced technical tools. Our primary objective was to increase the accuracy and the estimation power of the model. Moreover, we applied both models across different currency areas, which enabled us to compare the dynamics of the yield curves as well as the influence of the macroeconomic drivers. Interestingly, the results proved that both models we developed not only demonstrate strong validity, but also produce powerful estimates across all examined currencies. In addition, the incorporated macroeconomic factors contributed to reach higher precision of the modeling. JEL Classification: C51, C53, G17 Keywords: Nelson-Siegel, Kalman filter, Kalman smoother, Stace space formulation...
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Analysis of methods for constructing yield curves
Matějka, Martin ; Janeček, Martin (advisor) ; Sitař, Milan (referee)
The thesis is focused on finding the most appropriate method for constructing the yield curve which will meet the criteria of Solvency II and also the selected evaluation criteria. An overview of advantages of each method is obtained by comparing these methods. Yield curves are constructed using the Czech interest rate swap data from 2007 to 2013. The selection of the evaluated methods respects their public availability and their practical application in life insurance or central banks. This thesis is divided into two parts. The first part describes the theoretical background which is necessary to understand the examined issues. In the second part the analysis of selected methods was carried out with detailed evaluation.
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The Risk-free Rate of Return in The Income Valuation Approach
Plánička, Pavel ; Mařík, Miloš (advisor) ; Jurečka, Jan (referee)
The work deals with the theoretical basis and the practical approach for determining the risk-free rate of return. The aim of the work is to form recommendations which should analysts follow in determining the risk-free rate of return in the Czech Republic. The first part focuses on theoretical basis of risk-free rate of return and market interest rates. Further, the criteria of risk-free investments are defined in this chapter. The second and third part focuses on determination of the risk-free rate of return using yield to maturity of government bond and yield curve which was derived with using the Nelson-Siegel model. The table of forward rates at the end of each month from January 1999 to April 2010 is attached.
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