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International Monetary Fund: Trends in the Scope of Activity in 1989-2014
Szabo, Jakub ; Parízek, Michal (advisor) ; Kučerová, Irah (referee)
The main goal of this bachelor thesis is to evaluate possible ideological changes inside the IMF in the time period from 1989 to 2014. This goal is achieved by examining annual reports published by the IMF, with attention on the most important tools of the IMF. Issues discussed through the IMF's surveillance and conditionality are the main indicator of possible reforms and changes. Based on the existent literature and example of the reform of the World Bank four hypotheses are formulated. Those hypotheses are dedicated to monitoring changes in perceived importance of welfare state, small government, good governance and fiscal policy. Firstly, current literature is presented with definition of the main concepts used in this thesis. Secondly, important tools of the IMF are described. Thirdly, collected data is described and this thesis concludes with data evaluation. With application of the methods of descriptive statistics and content analysis this thesis concludes with statement, that important shift from emphasis on weak state to strong state occurred and good governance became important theme of IMF's interest. However importance of the theme fiscal policy persisted.
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The impact of IMF financial aid on economic growth and inflation
Covalenco, Valeri ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Mejstřík, Michal (referee)
The International Monetary Fund was created to promote financial stability, global monetary cooperation, high employment, international trade and sustainable economic growth. Together with the World Bank, IMF has a "monopoly" on offering loan programs for countries in deep crises or for development projects. In this thesis, we examine the effect of IMF, i.e. loan size and quotas, on the economic growth and inflation rate, by applying a dynamic panel regression on our dataset. In addition, we look at how the IMF Quotas influence the size of the loans. Our empirical results display significant evidence that IMF loans influence the GDP growth in a positive manner, in the medium term. Both Control of Corruption and Voice & Accountability have a negative influence on the economic growth. In other words, less corruption and stronger civil rights will halt the growth level of the economy. We also determined that IMF Quotas is not a robust indicator of the loan size. It is only driven by the past loan levels. Regarding Inflation determinants, IMF loans are not affecting the Inflation in a significant manner, while FDI and Control of Corruption - do. FDI exercises a positive influence on the CPI, while perception of less corruption has a negative effect on Inflation rate. JEL Classification D73, E31, F12,...
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An analysis of the stress testing methodology in accordance with IMF
Vrška, Vratislav ; Blahová, Naďa (advisor) ; Marková, Jana (referee)
This master's thesis is focused on the issues of stress testing in the context of financial stability. It consists of two major parts. The first part deals with methodology of general stress tests with special regard to stressed indicators and relevant risks. In the second part, the difficulties and shortcomings of general stress tests are analysed with respect to the dynamic expansion of financial instruments and markets. A special attention is paid to integrate liquidity risk and contagion risk into the current stress testing framework. Furthermore, the alternative instruments for increasing the complexity of banks financial soundness analysis are presented. It can be said that the system of financial stability analysis before the crisis was not sufficient because it did not reflect on all risk exposures. The main contribution of this thesis is the organized presentation of possible solutions which would help to enhance the quality of stress testing outputs and to a certain extent unify these outputs as well.
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The attitude of Russia towards the new BRICS financial institutions: analysis of public debate in Russian media
Mikalyuk, Diana ; Parízek, Michal (advisor) ; Kučerová, Irah (referee)
New financial institutions of BRICS are a new phenomenon in the context of international global finances. Since the beginning of the debate about creation of the BRICS financial institutions, a wide debate has emerged around the phenomenon, both in the academic and political spheres. The key element of the debate was the question, what role can BRICS play in the system of global governance. This thesis analyzes the phenomenon of the New Financial Institutions BRICS through the theoretical concept of the contested multilateralism and emphasizes that the new practices and rules of the given institutions lead to the creation of a regime complex in the field of international finance. Subsequently, the work through the method of content analysis of selected media explores the motivation of one of the BRICS member states, specifically Russia, to create these institutions. During the process of institution-building, motivations and objectives of Russia were not clear. This work aims to identify this motivation, which should contribute to a deeper understanding of possibilities for future development of the New Development Bank and The BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement.
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International Monetary Fund: Trends in the Scope of Activity in 1989-2014
Szabo, Jakub ; Parízek, Michal (advisor) ; Kučerová, Irah (referee)
The main goal of this bachelor thesis is to evaluate possible ideological changes inside the IMF in the time period from 1989 to 2014. This goal is achieved by examining annual reports published by the IMF, with attention on the most important tools of the IMF. Issues discussed through the IMF's surveillance and conditionality are the main indicator of possible reforms and changes. Based on the existent literature and example of the reform of the World Bank four hypotheses are formulated. Those hypotheses are dedicated to monitoring changes in perceived importance of welfare state, small government, good governance and fiscal policy. Firstly, current literature is presented with definition of the main concepts used in this thesis. Secondly, important tools of the IMF are described. Thirdly, collected data is described and this thesis concludes with data evaluation. With application of the methods of descriptive statistics and content analysis this thesis concludes with statement, that important shift from emphasis on weak state to strong state occurred and good governance became important theme of IMF's interest. However importance of the theme fiscal policy persisted.
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China tries within the current internationl framework dominated by the US to gain more power in the IMF
Liehmann, Viktoria ; Lepš, Jakub (advisor) ; Sehnálková, Jana (referee)
This thesis analyses whether China tries to gain more power in the IMF staying within the current international U.S.-dominated system. The analysis focuses on China's behavior in the IMF during the reform process of the last decade. The thesis examines the ways in which China can gain more power staying in the IMF. However, current power structures make it difficult to implement changes and China might therefore use political groups such as the BRICS and their New Development Bank to exert pressure. But the intention of the BRICS is not to overthrow the system but to reform it. Using official statements and speeches delivered by Chinese, U.S. or IMF staff in the IMF as well as articles published in newspapers Chinese claims and US reactions were analyzed. The results suggest that China stays within the international system and does not try to overthrow it. Nevertheless, pressure is created through the establishment of the New Development Bank (NDB) and the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB). The intention of this thesis is to give a current account of Chinese behavior in the international community, supporting the understanding of underlying dynamics. Keywords IMF, China, Reforms, BRICS, New Development Bank, Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank, international system, challenge
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Evaluation of Macroeconomic forecasting accuracy
Polák, Zdeněk ; Skuhrovec, Jiří (advisor) ; Martišková, Monika (referee)
This thesis deals with real GDP growth forecasting. It includes comparison of predictive performance of OECD, IMF, European Commission, and Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic in period between 2000 and 2010. Forecast errors for Central European countries are analyzed and compared to forecast errors for G7 countries, which has never been done before. Organizations are benchmarked based on summary statistics, comparison with nave forecast, and directional and sign accuracy. Results of the analysis show that forecasts for expansion period are more accurate than forecasts for recession period. Furthermore, hypothesis that forecasts for G7 countries are on average more accurate than forecasts for Central European countries is not confirmed. This is particularly interesting for the Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic, which did not outperform other organizations in forecasts for the Czech Republic and apparently has no comparative advantage in predicting economic development of the Czech Republic.
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Democratic Legitimacy of Global Economic Institutions (World Bank, IMF, WTO)
Krajník, Jan ; Parízek, Michal (advisor) ; Romancov, Michael (referee)
This paper addresses democratic legitimacy of the global economic institutions - The International Monetary Fund, The World Bank and The World Trade Organization. Considering formal aspects one of the main differences among them is the way of decision making. The WTO voting is based on country one, one vote principle whereas the IMF and the Bank represents weighted voting derived from the economic power. It is generally considered, that the egalitarian principle of the WTO is more democratic and brings better legitimacy. There are used three models of democracy to conceptualize what is meant by democracy a how is legitimacy gained. These are classical Athens democracy, Schumpeter's model competition of elites and modern concept of cosmopolitan democracy. With growing importance of these international organizations dealing with issues of monetary stability, economic development and international trade it is necessary to focus on them from the perspective of an individual citizen. For this reason, the Banzhaf index of power for each country related to its population is used to measure influence of individual citizen in these organizations. And from this perspective the WTO voting yields bigger disparities among citizens of different countries. Nevertheless different types of voting are not the key...
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The impact of IMF financial aid on economic growth and inflation
Covalenco, Valeri ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Mejstřík, Michal (referee)
The International Monetary Fund was created to promote financial stability, global monetary cooperation, high employment, international trade and sustainable economic growth. Together with the World Bank, IMF has a "monopoly" on offering loan programs for countries in deep crises or for development projects. In this thesis, we examine the effect of IMF, i.e. loan size and quotas, on the economic growth and inflation rate, by applying a dynamic panel regression on our dataset. In addition, we look at how the IMF Quotas influence the size of the loans. Our empirical results display significant evidence that IMF loans influence the GDP growth in a positive manner, in the medium term. Both Control of Corruption and Voice & Accountability have a negative influence on the economic growth. In other words, less corruption and stronger civil rights will halt the growth level of the economy. We also determined that IMF Quotas is not a robust indicator of the loan size. It is only driven by the past loan levels. Regarding Inflation determinants, IMF loans are not affecting the Inflation in a significant manner, while FDI and Control of Corruption - do. FDI exercises a positive influence on the CPI, while perception of less corruption has a negative effect on Inflation rate. JEL Classification D73, E31, F12,...
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