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Evaluating the Effect of 2014 Sanctions against Russia Using Synthetic Control Methods
Pchelintsev, Dmitriy ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Víšek, Jan Ámos (referee)
THE ABSTRACT In the new global economy majority of the developed countries use imposition of sanctions in the case of some offences. I have applied the synthetic control methods on this particular case of political pressure to quantify the real costs of anti-Russian sanctions to the economy. Based on the results of this study it was identified, that real GDP growth rate of Russia was continuously reducing by about -1,19% per quarter on average. Reaching the highest value of sanction's effect of -2,8% in real GDP growth rate at the end of 2015. It was also revealed that sanctions had positive effect on current account balance of Russia, that indicator was increasing during the whole studied after sanction's period by about 3,15% per quarter on average. This thesis is presented as a research of interconnection the imposition of 2014 sanctions against Russia and indicators of economic development (GDP, inflation) using synthetic control methods. It was revealed that former economic and social mechanisms aren't capable to provide further development of economy of Russia, its self-sufficiency and safety. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords sanctions, synthetic control method, Russia, GDP growth rate, current account balance Author's e-mail 51375259@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail...
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Analysis and comparison of the economic cycle and its particularity for countries of the Visegrad Group in ages 2004 to 2014
Dvořák, Jakub ; Štekláč, Jiří (advisor) ; Chmelová, Pavla (referee)
This thesis deals with analysis and comparison of the business cycles of the Visegrad Group countries in the period 2004--2014. The subjects of the theoretical part are the phases, length and theoretical perspectives of economics schools to the business cycle. In next part of the theoretical part are descriptions of the macroeconomic indicators, by which the individual countries are analyzed and compared. The theoretical part is dedicated to the Visegrad Group itself. In line with the objective of the thesis, the practical part revealed that the highest and the most stable economic growth is reached by the Polish economy. In contrast, the Hungarian economy scored the worst economic performance during said period. Common problems of economies with high deficit in the current account balances (in which the Hungarian economy, which faced bankruptcy in 2008, is the worst) arise from the data findings. Another common feature of these compared the economics are the public budget deficits, which it negative is reflected in the mount of total public debt. The practical part contains closed prediction of development of each country for the years 2015 and 2016.
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Global Imbalances in the Context of the U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate Development
Doležal, Martin ; Hnát, Pavel (advisor) ; Jiránková, Martina (referee)
The thesis deals with the development and status of global imbalances in contemporary global economy in connection with changes in the U.S. dollar exchange rate. From this point of view, the paper firstly focuses on the current diversification of the world economy to clarify the position of the U.S. monetary system in the sphere of global imbalances. Secondly, it concentrates on the long-term trends in the U.S. dollar exchange rate as the world's main currency. Finally, the thesis focuses on potential changes in the economic policy of the main actors of global imbalances and presents possible solution to these imbalances in the world economy.
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The Positive and Negative Effects of Foreign Direct Investment Supported by The Investment Incentives
Dupal, Jiří ; Petříček, Václav (advisor) ; Laláková, Eva (referee) ; Plchová, Božena (referee) ; Trestr, Pavel (referee)
In the past ten years the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has become a phenomenon, which is nowadays considered to be one of the major future perspectives of an economy. For many economists and politicians, the FDI is perceived as a saving instrument, which should help solve problems such as structure, regional discrepancies and most importantly a high unemployment rate especially under the conditions of global economic and financial crisis. The inflow of the FDI to host economy brings many positive effects that cannot be substituted. In fact, it is considered as a positive externality that must be paid. In order to attract the FDI in a country, the investment incentives are proposed and current incentives are being rebuilt. But attracting FDI at all costs can also be counterproductive. The intended aim of this thesis is to analyze positive and negativ effects of the FDI.
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