Vyhodnocení efektu sankcí uvalených vůči Rusku v roce 2014 pomocí metod syntetické kontroly

Pchelintsev, Dmitriy

THE ABSTRACT In the new global economy majority of the developed countries use imposition of sanctions in the case of some offences. I have applied the synthetic control methods on this particular case of political pressure to quantify the real costs of anti-Russian sanctions to the economy. Based on the results of this study it was identified, that real GDP growth rate of Russia was continuously reducing by about -1,19% per quarter on average. Reaching the highest value of sanction's effect of -2,8% in real GDP growth rate at the end of 2015. It was also revealed that sanctions had positive effect on current account balance of Russia, that indicator was increasing during the whole studied after sanction's period by about 3,15% per quarter on average. This thesis is presented as a research of interconnection the imposition of 2014 sanctions against Russia and indicators of economic development (GDP, inflation) using synthetic control methods. It was revealed that former economic and social mechanisms aren't capable to provide further development of economy of Russia, its self-sufficiency and safety. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords sanctions, synthetic control method, Russia, GDP growth rate, current account balance Author's e-mail 51375259@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail...

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