|
|
The Cross-Country and Cross-Sectoral Study of TFP and its Determinants
Bogren, Michael ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
This paper examines the impact of R&D and share of merchandise exports on total factor productivity in the 15 OECD countries through 1996-2009. The paper also discusses the inclusion of the human capital variable in influencing the TFP. The domestic R&D stocks are based on domestic industry-specific R&D. The share of merchandising exports is sector- invariant. We use the random effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity. In this case, the unobserved heterogeneity reflects the differences in trade and R&D policies. The main findings we have obtained are: i) the R&D stocks have a positive impact on TFP based on the random effects model, ii) the exports have a positive and significant impact on TFP, especially in the manufacturing sector.
|
|
|
A Meta-Analysis of FDI Spillovers in China
Herman, Dominik ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
Assessment of the foreign direct investment (FDI) spillovers in the People's Republic of China (PRC) has become a lively area of research in the past decades; nonetheless, the existing primary literature seems to be inconclusive. The present thesis revises the literature through a meta-analytical approach using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). Considering that the previous liter- ature reviews are of either inferior quality or incomparable focus, our research is based on a collection of 1081 estimates from 14 primary studies published between 2007 and 2017 comprising data from 1995 to 2012. A variety of 85 characteristics of the observations is coded whilst we employ at least 30 of these within each BMA estimation. Through separate testing of individual spillover measures (horizontal, forward, and backward), an extensive evidence of publication bias is collected for horizontal spillovers in PRC-exaggerating the mean magnitude of the reported estimates. Finally, the thesis identifies that the spillover effect from FDI inflows originating from the area of Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan is systematically different from the others. JEL Classification O1, O3, O4 Keywords FDI, spillover effect, China, PRC, meta- analysis, publication bias, BMA Author's e-mail hermandominik@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail...
|
|
|
The impact of China's demographic policy on its current GDP growth
Rotar, Karina ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
The topic of this paper is relation between the current demographic policy of China and its GDP. A large number of papers have been already written on the subject; however, there is still a space for theoretical analysis and empirical estimation: use more recent data, find new variables and relations. In this thesis we have performed a research based on panel data on 31 Chinese provinces for the years 1995 - 2015. Based on Solow growth model, we chose gross regional product of each province as dependent variable; gross capital formation, foreign direct investment and joint variable of percentage of ethnic minorities multiplied by birth rate have been chosen as independent variables. As an estimation technique we use fixed effects model. Empirical estimation led us to the following findings. Firstly, the impact of the one child policy on economic growth of China is negative. Secondly, the impact of the foreign direct investment on gross regional product is insignificant. Thirdly, high percentage of ethnic minorities in the population of the region negatively affects its economy. We come to a conclusion that the government of People's Republic of China has to further adjust the demographic policy in order to secure further sustainable growth. JEL Classification Keywords demography; one child policy;...
|
|
| |
|
|
China and Southeast Asia: Trade Integration and Rivalry
Sukhova, Ekaterina ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Riegl, Martin (referee)
South-East Asian region is the most dynamic region in the world. It is also known for having enormous number of RTAs, which became the main drive force for trade integration. Moreover, China is the leader in this region, changing fast and becoming either a pioneer or a threat for the neighbor countries. This paper uses a gravity model to estimate the influence of RTAs on the countries in the region and attempts to find out whether new agreements will deeper the trade cooperation or make the 'spaghetti bowl' effect even worse.
|
|
|
What is the equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna?
Jančovič, Pavel ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to estimate bilateral equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna relative to Euro and to determine if the Czech currency is undervalued or overvalued relative to the market equilibrium. We employ fundamental (FEER) and behavioral (BEER) equilibrium exchange rate models, which enables to measure the currency position relative to the market rate. To tackle the uncertainty of the implied equilibrium exchange rates that differ among alternative specifications of the models, we aggregate the estimates via principal components analysis. The perception on the market is that Czech koruna is undervalued, since the intervention regime imposed by the Czech National Bank in the 2013, was defending the exchange rate floor of 27 Czech korunas to Euro. Then, we extend conventional specifications of BEER models for variables representing exchange rate interventions and forward rates offered on the market because both can have protracted effects not only on spot rates but on adjustment towards long-term equilibrium as well. The original models with fundamental factors show equilibrium exchange rate near to 25 CZK/EUR. However, extended models with interventions show higher equilibrium exchange rate, near to 27 CZK/EUR. Thus, there is possibility of slow adjustment near to the...
|
|
|
National Power Grid in China: the reform of electricity industry
Liu, Ruyuan ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Luňáčková, Petra (referee)
Separation of transmission and distribution is the core for the new reform of electricity industry in China. To solve problem with long distance transmission, the two national power grids started Ultra-High-Voltage (UHV) transmission lines in 2006. After July 8th 2010, UHV lines started to operate. In March 2015, Document No.9 issued, to deepen the reform of electricity sector by separating transmission and distribution, and privatizing retailing. This paper will focus on the change in economic scale after separation by empirical analysis, and which pricing mechanism to choose.
|
|
|
The Czech Republic's Participation in the Association Agreement between the European Union and Central America and its Policy Implications
Morales Interiano, Andrés ; Vacek, Pavel (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee) ; Figueira, Filipa (referee)
University College London - School of Slavonic and East European Studies Univerzita Karlova v Praze - Charles University in Prague - Faculty of Social Sciences International Masters in Economy, State & Society - Economics and Business Andrés Morales Interiano UCL Student Number: 14082525 The Czech Republic's Participation in the Association Agreement between the European Union and Central America and its Policy Implications Master's Thesis Supervisors: Dr Filipa Figueira (UCL) and Dr Pavel Vacek (Charles University) 20 May 2016 - Prague, Czech Republic Abstract: Preferential Trade Agreements have become evermore popular in the worldwide market economy and have raised much interest in academics and policy-makers alike. This paper studies the participation that the Czech Republic had in the Association Agreement between the European Union and Central America during the pre- negotiation and negotiation rounds, and the effects that it brought to the Czech Republic's trade policies and trade flow with the mentioned region. It focuses on a qualitative approach of the Political Economy of Regionalism and liberal perspective to explain how the Czech Republic participated in this agreement previous to its signature in 2012 and views some of the consequences it has caused after its provisional application. It finds...
|
|
|
Evaluation of Effects of "Cash for Clunkers"-like programs on car markets and macroeconomic situation
Fiebig, Florian ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
Bachelor's Thesis Proposal Institute of Economic Studies Faculty of Social Sciences Charles University in Prague Author Florian Fiebig Supervisor Mgr. Ing. Vilém Semerák PhD. Proposed topic: The Impact of German policy, cash for clunkers, on the Czech market in regards to price level and output. Topic characteristics After the financial crisis in 2007-08, governments all over the world tried using several policies in order to promote growth and stability for their economies. On July 1, 2009, the USA launched its policy "Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS)", commonly known as "Cash for clunkers." It was a program designed to boost car sales, by giving the US residents an economic incentive swap their old and economic inefficient cars for brand new models that are more fuel efficient as well as produce less CO2. In the same year, Germany tried to promote growth and stability using the same policy/program. However, this policy did not just had an impact on the German economy, but its neighbors as well. In addition to that, it is interesting to find out if this policy was beneficial to implement or rather harming the economy even further. Although several papers conducted research on the effects of the cash-for-clunkers policy, I will focus on the effects that the German policy had on the Czech economy with...
|
|
|
The Effect of Geopolitics on Commodity Prices
McGrouther, Robert ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Riegl, Martin (referee)
The thesis examines the effects of geopolitical events on global crude oil, wheat and aluminum prices. Geopolitical events have the potential to disrupt the production and supply of commodities to markets, affecting prices. Path analysis models that mirror crude oil, wheat and aluminum markets are constructed using theories specific to each commodity to measure how substantial the impacts of different variables are upon prices. Vector error correction models are then employed to test if individual geopolitical events have long-term effects on prices. An analysis of production and exports of commodities in regions and countries affected by geopolitical events is conducted to determine how severely production is disrupted. A basic examination of prices before, during and after geopolitical events is conducted to understand how quickly drivers of commodity prices can shift between geopolitical events and supply and demand fundamentals. It also serves to show how quickly prices revert to pre-event levels following a geopolitical event.
|
guest ::
RSS feed.