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Global Financial Crisis: causes and consequences - The case of developed vs developing economies in CEE region
Zhu, Yongyan ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Akdogan, Idil (referee) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
The great recession of 2008-2010 has impacted the world's economy, which has begun with the sub-prime crisis in the US subprime mortgage market and subsequently spread to the world economy through the contagion effect. Moreover, the influence of the recession on the other nation's economy has been markedly differentiated, depending on their vulnerability to financial system problems (credit crunch, liquidity inflows). Some countries were hit very hard and experienced a drop in GDP, rising unemployment, etc. However, other countries were affected slightly, or the direct effects on them were not visible. Similarly, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries have experienced a very differentiated course of the crisis. As a result of the recession, economic policymakers have tightened financial supervision and regulatory frameworks. This study adopts seven Eastern and Central European Countries (Poland, including Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Lithuania and Bulgaria) and analyzes the effect of recession on the stock market of the selected countries. The relevant leading stock market indices of individual countries are adopted as an indicator of the development of the financial market. Monthly data for January 2000-May 2021 is used, and this period is further divided into two samples...
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Impact of brexit on Great Britain's foreign trade with the Czech Republic and Slovakia
Brousilová, Taťána ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
The United Kingdom is the first country ever to leave European Union. The aim of this bachelor thesis is to analyse the impact of Brexit on the Czech and Slovak Republic. This thesis characterizes the foreign trade of the Czech Republic and Slovakia with the assumption that most of the impact of Brexit will depend on indirect trade links and not only on the foreign trade of the United Kingdom with the Czech Republic and Slovakia. This effect is expected due to Germany being the main trading partner of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Using Input-Output analysis and two symmetric Input-Output tables for these countries, the direct impact caused by the reduction in exports of the United Kingdom was estimated first. Using the World Input-Output Table, the direct and indirect impact on the Czech Republic and Slovakia was calculated. This impact is caused by the weakening of the trade relationships between the United Kingdom and the Member States of the European Union. The analysis confirms the expected increased impact of Brexit on the Czech Republic and Slovakia through indirect trade links. The analysis further identifies the production of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers as the most affected sector, both in the Czech Republic and in Slovakia.
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The impacts of financial crisis on exports of Central and East European countries
Zhang, Wen ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee) ; Radošević, Slavo (referee)
Finanční krize, která začala v roce 2008, ovlivnila nejen finanční sektor, ale i zbytek ekonomik mnoha zemí světa. Země střední a východní Evropy (SVE) zažily především negativní externí poptávkový šok. Tato dizertace analyzuje, zda exporty zemí SVE odpovídají změnám HDP a zda finanční krize měla na obchod zemí SVE dlouhodobé dopady. Analýza využívá data za období 2000-2018 za 12 zemí SVE v roli exportérů a celkem 198 importérů. Je založena na strukturálním gravitačním modelu využívajícím Baier & Bergstrandovu (2009) "Bonus Vetus" metodu doplněnou o roční dummy proměnné a vybrané párové dummies pro vybrané páry zemí. Výsledky v první řadě ukazují, že v souladu se základní logikou gravitačních modelů jsou vzdálenost a HDP vývozců a dovozců významnými determinantami exportů. Výsledky dále ukazují na přítomnost dalších efektů, tj. že obchod se během krize změnil více, než by odpovídalo čistě změnám HDP. Dummy proměnné vztažené k citlivosti na HDP a k úrovňovému efektu ukazují na dlouhodobé dopady krize na obchod. Pokud jde o další vlivy, členství v EU a přítomnost plovoucího kurzu může exportům napomoci, zatímco vliv členství v Eurozóně byl nevýznamný. Kvůli přítomnosti trvalejších efektů dále analyzujeme data na sektorové úrovni. Dopady se týkaly všech sektorů, ale příčiny a velikost se lišily. I...
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Analysis of the EU - South Korea FTA and its effects on their mutual trade using the gravity model
Vinšová, Katarína ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Vacek, Pavel (referee)
The European Union (EU) and South Korea signed the EU- South Korea free trade agreement (FTA) in 2011 and since then they started to gradually remove barriers to their mutual trade. This thesis is analyzing the effects of this agreement on their bilateral trade flow in 10 commodity sections from 2005 until 2018. For this analysis we are using gravity model that is estimated by OLS and PPML method for comparison. This analysis showed that the EUSouth Korea FTA influences their mutual trade in all 10 sections differently due to different levels of protectionism at the beginning. The FTA had a positive influence on their mutual trade in 9 commodity sections out of 10. In the Section 9 we found a negative effect of the FTA. Contrary to our beliefs we also found out that the highest increase in their mutual trade was not in automobile and electronic industry but in the chemical industry. JEL Classification C23, F14, F33, C16 Keywords Free Trade agreement, South Korea, European Union, gravity model Title Analysis of the EU - South Korea FTA and its effects on their mutual trade using the gravity model Author's e-mail katarina.vinsova@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail michal.paulus@fsv.cuni.cz
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What Drives the Current Account (Im)balancesin the EU and Are they Relevant to Economic Policy?
Mainka, Jacob ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
Bibliographic note MAINKA, Jacob. What Drives the Current Account (Im)balances in the EU and Are they Relevant to Economic Policy? Praha, 2020. 85 pages. Master thesis (Mgr.). Charles University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies. Supervisor Jaromír Baxa, Ph.D. Abstract With the global financial crisis and the ensuing European sovereign debt crisis, current account imbalances have attracted enormous interest as both a cause and an indicator. The question therefore arises as to what drives them. In this master thesis I carry out a one-way fixed effects panel regression for the 28 EU countries for the period 1999-2018, testing thirteen potential drivers of the current account. From my baseline model, fiscal balance, domestic credit to private sector, total age dependency ratio and the output gap are found to be of robust statistical significance. An additional panel regression was only able to confirm to a small extent the German view that current account imbalances, high foreign debt and deviations from the inflation target bear responsibility for macroeconomic instability. In addition, I show that the current account has limited information value, its underlying drivers are difficult to target by economic policy, and that imbalances as such do not present a serious concern. Upper and...
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The Gravity Model and Effects of Opening the Northern Sea Route: Industry Level Trade Analysis
Jeong, Juyeong ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
The future opening of the Northern Sea Route will decrease the maritime distance between Europe and East Asia relative to currently used routes. Due to this reason, the Northern Sea Route has been researched and analyzed by various scholars. However, the development of the passage is rather slow because of the lack of attention from possible future users such as shippers or producers. Their moderate interest might be caused by the uncertainty of possible benefits in their specific industry. To diffuse their concern, this paper measures the possible direct effects on trade in industry level based on the current characteristics of the world trade. For a better estimation, various models are used and tested. This paper finds that the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) outperforms Ordinary Least Squares (OLS); negative elasticity of maritime distance; 'primary sector' and 'sectors produce heavy or dangerous goods' from Northeastern European countries are likely to experience a higher increment in exports by using the Northern Sea Route than other European sectors. According to the findings, the continual or more attention on the Northern Sea Route is advised to lower the transport costs of usage for the maximization of welfare.
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Corruption Distance and Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from European Transition Economies
Yu, Bin ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Bruno, Randolph Luca (referee) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
This dissertation builds on Cezar and Escobar's (2015) study of the relationship between institutional distance and foreign direct investment (FDI), but focuses instead on the nexus between corruption distance and FDI. Along the lines of their study, this dissertation uses a two-stage gravity model derived from the framework of heterogeneous firms to empirically estimate the impact of corruption distance on the inward and outward FDI of European transition economies. This dissertation contributes to the literature in several aspects. First, it proposes a new method for measuring corruption distance, considering the importance of firms' previous experience to the development of necessary skills for navigating a foreign business environment. Second, the empirical study distinguished the impact of corruption distance on the extensive and intensive margin by using a rich dataset with three different corruption indices, which thereby differs from most previous studies on this topic. This is also one of the few papers that specifically study this topic in the context of European transition economies. The results show that both conventional and adjusted corruption distance based on the control-of-corruption index only reduces the extensive margin of transition economies' FDI; and that the magnitude of...
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The Belt and Road Initiative: Effects on eastern Europe and post-soviet republics gravity analysis
Reinštein, Jakub ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
In this paper I intend to examine the impact of Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), logistical performance and corruption on bilateral trade among countries along its inland corridors. In order to do so I have used micro-founded gravity model of trade. Ordinary Least Square and Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood estimations with importer, exporter and year fixed effects were applied on panel dataset including information about 150 countries between 2007 and 2015. My results indicate, that BRI has positive effect on bilateral trade between involved countries, however it has negative impact on the trade with the rest of the world. I have also found out, that logistics performance is significant factor in facilitating trade in some categories of goods. Interestingly my results have not identified corruption as negative factor in trade and in some cases, it appears that corruption might promote trade, however further research of this topic is needed. Keywords Gravity model, International trade, Belt and Road Initiative, Corruption, Logistics
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Influence of the interest groups on healthcare reimbursement decree in Czech Republic
Bobula, Peter ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Bryndová, Lucie (referee)
Reference (bibliographic reference of this thesis) BOBULA, P. (2019) Influence of the interest groups on healthcare reimbursement decree in Czech Republic. Prague, 2019. Master's thesis (Mgr.). Charles University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Political Studies. Department of Political Science. Supervisor Mgr. Michal Paulus Abstract Reimbursement decree is an important part of the healthcare policy in Czech Republic. It determines how the resources will be allocated in the healthcare system the next year. According to the Czech legislature, Ministry of Health invites the representatives of insurance companies and healthcare providers to discuss and create a balanced form of reimbursement. When they are not able to agree, it's up to Ministry of Health to determine the reimbursement in corresponding segment. We assume that this kind of organization enables the involved representatives to push their interests in order to get more favorable financing for their profession. Different groups have different positions in the bargaining process so we can expect the existence of winners and losers according to the financial arrangements they were able to enforce. Using the content analysis of final protocols from reimbursement decree conciliations, spending of insurance companies in healthcare segments and...
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The Economic Costs of Unfinished Highways in the Czech Republic
Prokop, Pavel ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
This thesis attempts to introduce between economists overlooked topic of highway effects to a wider audience in the hope of promoting discussion about the efficiency of infrastructure investment. It is also believed to be the first academic writing to question, verify, update and extend the offi- cial Czech guidelines used for highway cost and benefit analyses through a wide literature review, making it useful to road transport experts. The main focus is on the unit prices and quantities estimation of various costs and benefits, whereas the software calculation is not analyzed in such detail. Literature review, centered around the European recommendations and related academic research, a brief description of the cost and benefit evaluation of road infrastructure in the Czech Republic, and proposed changes in time costs, accidents, air pollution, climate change, landscape, biodiversity and time indexation are presented. Abstrakt Tato práce se snaží širšímu publiku představit ekonomy přehlížené téma efektů dálnic a posílit diskuzi o efektivitě investic do infrastruktury. Velmi pravděpodobně je první akademickou pub- likací, která ověřuje, aktualizuje a rozšiřuje oficiální českou metodiku používanou pro analýzu přínosů a nákladů dálniční infrastruktury, za pomoci širší literatury a může být užitečnou...
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