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Public debt management
Votava, Libor ; Dvořák, Pavel (advisor) ; Mandel, Martin (referee) ; Vítek, Leoš (referee)
Chronic imbalance between government revenues and expenditures was the main cause of growing public debt in many economies. In economic theory we can find some other arguments that justify deficit financing of government expenditures or public debt. We can mention these arguments -- in some situations (for example natural disaster) government borrowing from other subjects is very prompt and operative way how to gain additional money and seems to be better than other ways (for example better than increase of taxation), government bonds and securities can be very attractive instrument where economic subjects allocate savings and improve liquidity of secondary markets or can be used for monetary policy. On the other hand many arguments against budget deficit and public debt are in theory described and analyzed -- negative affects in savings allocation (crowding-out affect), cost of debt service limits active fiscal policy, debt burden is shifted to other generations, government expenditures from debt financing can negatively effect macroeconomic stability. In theory and in practical policy is public debt and its effects on economy relatively complicated and controversial topic and we can analyze its from economic, technical and political point of view. It results also from the fact that there are many different debt instruments which can be used to finance the budget deficit. A main distinction is the currency of denomination, and, in particular, whether or not is the domestic currency. Another important characteristics is the initial term to maturity, which among marketable instrument may range from few weeks to 30 years. A policymaker may rely on marketable securities, as well as on loans from financial institutions and on savings bonds sold to personal investors. Which instruments policy makers choose depends on the objective they pursue as well as on the circumstances in which the choice is made. Debt management we can define as the process of establishing and executing a strategy for managing the government's debt in order to raise the required amount of funding, achieve its risk and cost objectives, and to meet any other sovereign debt management goals the government may have set, such as developing and maintaining an efficient market for government securities. The objective of debt management policy is to minimize over the long term the cost of meeting the government's financing needs, taking account of risk connecting with debt portfolio. Application of debt management in real economy covers for example these specific issues: Debt management objectives and strategy, coordination with fiscal and monetary policy, allocation of responsibilities and objectives among institutions and authorities dealing with debt management, transparency to public, institutional framework, technical and information base. Importance of public debt management results from facts that high levels of public debt are a common feature of modern economies. It is possible to suppose that debt management is going to be very actual issue in the Czech Republic in near future for these reasons -- Czech Republic is small and open economy (we can consider it to be emerging market), during last several years public debt in Czech Republic have been growing rapidly not only in absolute volume but also as GDP ratio, there is a permanent danger that financial and economic shocks in international economy combined with inappropriate fiscal and monetary policy can have negative or in extreme case fatal impact on many people living in the Czech Republic. Dissertation "Public debt Management" primary focused on these issues and problems: Basic theoretical points concerning fiscal policy, deficit and public (government) debt -- methodology of measuring debt, influence debt on economy, risks connecting with public (government) debt Arguments for and against deficit and debt Public debt management -- general recommendations of International Monetary Fund Practice as for the public debt management in some countries -- USA, Sweden, countries of Euro-area Situation as for the public debt in Czech Republic Public debt management in Czech Republic -- historic development, goals and criteria set and used presently, analyze of risks that public debt management deals with, risk management applied in Czech republic, evaluation public debt management in Czech republic -- confrontation with recommendations of International Monetary Fund Analyze of impact of financial crises on process of public debt management in Czech republic Some arrangements concerning directly or indirectly public dept management in Czech Republic are recommended and analyzed. These recommendations are: Implementation of "inflation-linked" bonds Increasing portion of debt denominated in euro currency Prolongation of calendar of emissions Improvement of intelligibility of documents named "Strategie" that should declare and explain principles of public debt management in Czech republic Creation and implementation of special law destined for public debt management
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Causes, going and impact of american mortgage and global financial crisis
Do Viet, Viet ; Mandel, Martin (advisor)
The goal of my bachelor thesis was to analyze causes and impacts of financil crisis of 21st century. The thesis was divided in two parts. The first one is discussing about the theory of the financial market, its functions, structure and regulation. In the second part I was trying to clear up the problem about causes of financial crisis. I my opinion the main cause of financial crisis is the mortgage crisis in american market. After that I was discribing the going of this crisis and in the end I was trying to discuss about impacts of crisis on american market, Evrope market and Czech market as well.
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Finanční krize - sekuritizace a ratingové agentury
Jakoubek, Jiří ; Mandel, Martin (advisor)
The final thesis "Finanční krize -- sekuritizace a ratingové agentury" examines factors that have contributed to the current financial crisis. In the first part, I analyze problems connected with boom of inadequately regulated securitization in last decade. I describe the process of securitization, what was the motivation of banks and investors for using securitization, what made securitization unsuccessful and what problems it caused on the financial market. It the second part, I analyze influence of government-sponsored entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on current financial situation. In the third part, I examine the role of rating agencies in this crisis and failure of techniques that they have used for credit rating of structured obligations.
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Reciprocal corelations of interest rates and exchange rate described in the example of selected countries
Mihalik, Miroslav ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Mandel, Martin (referee)
This final work is aimed at the concept of relationship between exchange rate and interest rate differential. The introductory part briefly describes exchange rate as a macro-economical parameter, which can be seen in many different systems of exchange rate. Next part consists of theoretical principles of uncovered interest parity and the dynamics of this process and also the process of international Fisher effect. In the analysis part the relation between interest rate and exchange rate is explored in various conditions of exchange rate arrangements in the countries of Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Slovakia. The uncovered interest parity is valued by graphic analysis made by calculation of the theoretical rate based on uncovered interest parity and the off-set index rate. International Fisher effect is tested on the graph of change in exchange rate depending on the interest rate differential. The graphic analysis is followed by the analysis of linear regression. Afterwards with the use of VAR model we find not only the dependence of exchange rate on interest rate differential but also whether the interest rate differential is dependent on exchange rate or not.
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The Influence of European Central Bank Interest Rates upon Consumption in Eurozone Countries
Glykner, Daniel ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Chytilová, Helena (referee)
First, this paper presents basic definitions of the consumption function and gives a summary of main theoretical concepts of consumption as well as an overview and discussion of important papers on consumption. Above all, papers examining the influence of the interest rate upon consumption are accented. Furthermore it contains a brief context summary of current and potential eurozone members, work of the ECB and execution of common monetary policy. Subsequently we discuss the hypothesis of a possibly asymmetric impact of the interest rate upon consumption in individual countries, expand and justify the hypothesis based on indebtedness, wealth, etc. Empirically, hypotheses are tested on historical data of individual countries: transmission between interest rates of central banks (later the ECB) and market interest rates, correlation analysis of consumption changes and central interest rates in individual countries, correlations with year-on-year changes. Also, consumption functions are estimated using time series models while testing alternative variables in the regression equations. We discuss analysis results and methods used; the influence of the interest rate upon consumption seems to be small and the relationship type is not much different across the eurozone countries. Eventually, we outline possible implications of our results with respect to the future of the eurozone and related activity of the ECB.
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Macro-economic costs analysis and time determination of joining European Monetary Union
Zámečník, Michal ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Brůna, Karel (referee)
The main aim of this thesis is to discover a suitable instant of time for the Czech Republic to join European Monetary Union. I am analyzing dependence between monetary policies of the Czech National Bank (CNB) and the European Central Bank (ECB) themselves as well as in relation to essential Czech macroeconomic indicators. My observation is focused on interest rate policies represented by operative interest rates, on monetary policies represented by indices of nominal effective exchange rates and on convergence monitoring. The analytical instruments I used in the thesis are correlation analyses, linear trends, the Granger causality test and the Impulse-Reaction test. Besides, my thesis examines fulfillment of the Convergence (Maastricht) criteria in the Czech Republic and other central European countries. This thesis also examines impact of the European monetary policy on some Eurozone member countries.
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Fiscal Policy Rules
Prušvic, David ; Izák, Vratislav (advisor) ; Mandel, Martin (referee) ; Žák, Milan (referee)
Předkládaná práce zachycuje komplexnějším způsobem problematiku fiskálních pravidel, včetně vybraných v realitě používaných typů, s cílem přispět na základě analýzy současného stavu fiskálních rámců v Evropské unii a v České republice k diskusi o volbě vhodného fiskálního pravidla pro české veřejné finance a českou ekonomiku. Stěžejní typy fiskálních pravidel byly komparovány jednak vzájemně, jakožto i ve vztahu k osmi fundamentálním atributům ideálního fiskálního pravidla. Pozornost byla rovněž věnována chování pravidel v rámci hospodářského cyklu. Ze srovnávaných pravidel bylo celkově nejlépe hodnoceno pravidlo výdajové. Jelikož primárním fiskálním rámcem po české veřejné finance je Pakt stability a růstu, byla spolu s Maastrichtskými fiskálními kritérii hodnocena jeho účinnost. Metodou pro hodnocení byla vybrána panelová regresní technika nejmenších čtverců s fixními efekty. Výsledek ekonometrické verifikace potom naznačil, že pravidlo Paktu účinné skutečně bylo, avšak že je funkční pouze tehdy, je-li skutečně vynutitelné (citelná ztráta z nečlenství v ?euro klubu?). Další část práce se teoreticky věnujeme otázce koordinace politiky fiskální a měnové. Analýza se ubírá směrem malých otevřených ekonomik cílujících míru inflace s deficitním omezením, čili k problematice relevantní pro českou ekonomiku. Sestavujeme tak teoretický model, kterým ukazujeme, jak tyto dva stěžejní elementy hospodářské politiky reagují na chování druhé autority sledujíce svůj zájem vyjádřený tzv. ztrátovou funkcí příslušné autority a kdy je možné dosáhnout bodu stálého stavu v prostoru nástrojů měnové a fiskální politiky. Řešíme rovněž otázku koordinace těchto dvou makropolitik po vstupu české ekonomiky do společného měnového prostoru a pomocí dedukce pak z nastolených premis modelu usuzujeme na důležitost fiskálního pravidla v malých ekonomikách pro jejich ?zdravý? fiskální vývoj. Na závěr práce syntetizujeme získané poznatky a vyvozujeme patřičné závěry pro českou hospodářskou politiku, které ústí do návrhu vlastního, resp. modifikace, fiskálního pravidla vhodného pro české veřejné finance v kontextu evropského Paktu stability a růstu.
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Locked in Maastricht
Zavacká, Veronika ; Komárek, Luboš (advisor) ; Mandel, Martin (referee)
Diplomová práca si kladie za ciel zhodnotit menový systém ERM II. Podla niektorých súcasných autorov nie je jeho design zvolený optimálne v dvoch smeroch. Prvým problémom sú rovnovážne efekty charakteristické pre tranzitívne ekonomiky, ktoré majú tendenciu vytvárat inflacné tlaky a tak potenciálne komplikovat plnenie Maastrichtského inflacného kritéria. Druhým problémom sú vysoké a potenciálne volatilné kapitalové prílivy, ktoré jednak možu tento problém zhoršovat a navyše v rámci striktných Maastrichtských limitov možu viest k makroekonomickej nestabilite. Práca sa venuje analýze oboch problémov.
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