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Monetary policy of the ECB and the CNB since the creation of the euro area: convergence or divergence?
Vránová, Veronika ; Janíčko, Martin (advisor) ; Kubíček, Jan (referee)
The thesis is based on the assumption that, given the expected adoption of the euro in the Czech Republic, there should be a convergence also in monetary policy. The aim is to compare the final impact of monetary policy of the ECB and the CNB on the monetary indicators - inflation, interest rates and the exchange rate since 1999 and, consequently, to assess their convergence using simple statistical models. Concerning the thesis composition, the introductory section briefly describes the historical development of the euro area, which allows a better understanding of its initial composition and the nature of the EMU. Subsequently, the paper deals with the actual monetary policy of both central banks. It outlines institutional arrangements, objectives, strategies and instruments, which shaped their activity. Further, some convergence issues are presented. Final part focuses on the comparison of selected indicators and their assessment of convergence within euro area and the Czech Republic.
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What is the Predicative Ability for Unemployment Rate of Different Methodologies for Output Gap Estimation?
Holá, Martina ; Kubíček, Jan (advisor) ; Chytil, Zdeněk (referee)
The submitted diploma thesis is dedicated to the calculation of the estimation of output gap by three estimating techniques (Hodrick-Prescott filter, Kalman filtering, and Cobb-Douglas production function) for the Czech Republic during the years 1995-2009, and, consequently, to their usefulness for testing the Okun's law as a suitable predicative tool. In other words, which of the mentioned methods is the most appropriate one for an accurate prediction of the rate of unemployment. To achieve this, the Box-Jenkins methodology is used for modelling and designing the cyclical unemployment forecasts and dynamic version of the Okun's law. The results indicate that, for the given period, there is relatively strong and unstable relationship between changes in output gap and changes in cyclical unemployment in the Czech Republic. The most suitable technique for the estimating of the future development of unemployment gap seems to be the Cobb-Douglas production function approach. This is namely based on the quantity of gained forecast errors and Granger causality.
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Are there twin deficits in the economy of the Czech republic?
Kužmová, Alexandra ; Kubíček, Jan (advisor) ; Tříska, Dušan (referee)
The aim of this master thesis is to empirically validate "hypothesis of twin deficits", resulting from Mundell-Fleming model, in the Czech Republic in years 1999-2010. The econometric method used was VAR models and Impulse Response Functions based on these models. Analysis proved that as a result of government deficit increase, through exchange rate appreciation, the balance of foreign trade deteriorates. Another fact discovered is that people are partially behaving as described by Ricardo-Barro equivalence. Their reaction on increased government deficit is increase of their personal savings as well as consumption. But increase of personal savings is not sufficiently compensating the deficit in government budget. Similar results were achieved also in analysis of government spendings.
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Parallels and differences between the Great Depression and the financial crisis
Ondruška, Jakub ; Kubíček, Jan (advisor) ; Chytil, Zdeněk (referee)
This diploma thesis examines parallel and differences between the interwar Great depression and the financial crisis of 2007. Comparison is made for United States and the thesis succes-sively deals with comparison of economic conditions measured by fundamental economic indicators and their behaviour and correlations. Next topic is cointegration analysis of money-income hypothesis for both periods. We reach the conclusion that economic situation and sta-bility were different. Furthermore, the thesis reveals monetary policy actions and role of fiscal stimulus. The last topic is comparison of regulation and liberalization of financial markets. On the contrary to the first part of thesis the issues solved in the second part showed that there were similarities between the Great depression and financial crisis.
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Analysis of the link between corruption and general government deficits
Michálek, Jan ; Mičúch, Marek (advisor) ; Kubíček, Jan (referee)
This paper discovers the link between corruption and general government deficits in European countries. A short review of concepts such as agency theory and principal-agent problem is made. After introducing a simple model of corruption-deficit relationship, the correlation is tested by regression analysis for years 2003-2009. Besides the year 2008 (the first year of financial crisis) are the results significant on the 5% confidence level. The regression of means is significant on 1% confidence level. The deficits are statistical significantly correlated with the level of perceived corruption.
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Convergence of European economies in the context of global inequality
Kučerová, Michaela ; Čermáková, Klára (advisor) ; Kubíček, Jan (referee)
This thesis deals with the convergence of European economies in the context of the deepening global inequality in the world. The theoretical part discusses the concept of convergence and the basic theories of economic growth, explaining the convergence of economies to their steady state. This part also deals with global inequality. Different types of inequalities and methods of measurement are identified, with focus on external inequality measured by GDP per capita in purchasing power parity. The analytical part examines the development of gross domestic product of the analyzed economies. The regression analysis of beta convergence shows that the economies converge and that the inequality between them is decreasing. One part of the analytical section also clarifies the relationship between long-term growth and its determinants. The section is concluded with the regression analysis of dependence between the long-term growth and selected determinants. The analysis shows that the statistically significant main factors contributing to long-term growth in the analyzed economies are the level of investment, openness of the economy, and government capital expenditures. Foreign direct investment inflows are also an important determinant, but not statistically significant. On the other hand, long-term economic growth is negatively influenced by the rate of population growth.
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FDI into Czech real estate market
Pribiš, Tomáš ; Kalínská, Emílie (advisor) ; Kubíček, Jan (referee)
Práce popisuje dopad přímých zahraničních investic na trh realit České republiky a poukazuje na jejich značný význam. Obecně definuje příliv PZI do ČR a líčí tuzemský realitní trh. Charakterizuje principy toku PZI do nemovitostního trhu, detailně se zabývá jednotlivými segmenty realitního trhu vzhledem k PZI do nich proudícím. Má za cíl nastínit budoucí trendy vývoje PZI do českého realitního trhu.
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