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The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools at the Zero Lower Bound: A DSGE Approach
Malovaná, Simona ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Franče, Václav (referee)
The central bank is not able to further ease monetary conditions once it ex- hausts the space for managing short-term policy rate. Then it has to turn its attention to unconventional measures. The thesis provides a discussion about the suitability of different unconventional policy tools in the Czech situation while the foreign exchange (FX) interventions have proven to be the most appropriate choice. A New Keynesian small open economy DSGE model estimated for the Czech Republic is enhanced to model the FX interventions and to compare dif- ferent monetary policy rules at the zero lower bound (ZLB). The thesis provides three main findings. First, the volatility of the real and nominal macroeconomic variables is magnified in the response to the domestic demand shock, the for- eign financial shock and the foreign inflation shock. Second, the volatility of prices decreases significantly if the central bank adopts price-level or exchange rate targeting rule. Third, intervening to fix the nominal exchange rate on some particular target or to correct a misalignment of the real exchange rate from its fundamentals serves as a good stabilizer of prices while intervening to smooth the nominal exchange rate movements increases the overall macroeconomic volatility at the ZLB. 1
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Current account adjustment in the Baltic countries
Vostřák, David ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Šopov, Daniel (referee)
In last twenty years, the Baltic countries have experienced turbulent develompents of their current accounts. Deficits on these accounts were often substantially above 10% of GDP and there was active discussion about their sustainibility. We will look in this work on the developments of the current accounts both from practical and theoretical point of view. The later is made with usage of an intertemporal model of representative agent, who maximazes his utility by optimizing his consumption profile over infinite time horizon. This model is then used in empirical part, where we compare estimated values of the current accounts with their real values. We assume that expectations about future values of key variables are realized by following the vector autoregression of order one. The results of this work suggest that big deficits in past were caused by high expectations about growth rates of the economies. Decreasing of this expectations then resulted in the adjustments of the current accounts. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools at the Zero Lower Bound: A DSGE Approach
Malovaná, Simona ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Maršál, Aleš (referee)
The central bank is not able to further ease monetary conditions once it ex- hausts the space for managing short-term policy rate. Then it has to turn its attention to unconventional measures. The thesis provides a discussion about the suitability of different unconventional policy tools in the Czech situation while the foreign exchange (FX) interventions have proven to be the most appropriate choice. A New Keynesian small open economy DSGE model estimated for the Czech Republic is enhanced to model the FX interventions and to compare dif- ferent monetary policy rules at the zero lower bound (ZLB). The thesis provides three main findings. First, the volatility of the real and nominal macroeconomic variables is magnified in the response to the domestic demand shock, the for- eign financial shock and the foreign inflation shock. Second, the volatility of prices decreases significantly if the central bank adopts price-level or exchange rate targeting rule. Third, intervening to fix the nominal exchange rate on some particular target or to correct a misalignment of the real exchange rate from its fundamentals serves as a good stabilizer of prices while intervening to smooth the nominal exchange rate movements increases the overall macroeconomic volatility at the ZLB. 1
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Central Banks' Financial Strength and Monetary Policy
Kadlec, Jan ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Lešanovská, Jitka (referee)
The objective of this thesis is to see how effectively can central banks can conduct monetary policy under specific circumstances. Four hypothesis are being examined on the case study of five central banks - the Czech National Bank, the Central Bank of Chile, the Bank of Jamaica, the Central Bank of Argentina and the Swiss National Bank. Firstly this work confirms that solid monetary policy can be applied even if CB is dealing with loss based on inflation targeting success rate of central banks. Secondly, in the case of Czech National Bank using VAR, was concluded that inflation expectations can influence the outcome of CB's monetary policy. In the second part of this hypothesis the expectations from the government side in SNB case were examined. On the case of Argentina the negative effect of adjusting monetary policy was demonstrated. The last part elaborates on the topic of determining optimal capitalisation of central bank.
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What is the appropriate Monetary Policy regime for The Gambia?
Komma, Musukuta ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Turnovec, František (referee)
The Gambia, a small open economy, implements a managed floating exchange rate regime. The central bank (CBG) has the mandate to design and implement monetary policy with the primary aim of achieving price and exchange stability in the economy. In spite of interventions by the CBG, the country continues to experience fluctuations in its exchange rate with several instances of major spikes in recent years. This thesis proposes a solution, through a change of policy regime, to control the long time and disturbing depreciation of the domestic currency. In a vector auto regressive framework, the study investigates sources of the exchange rate variability using quarterly data from 1998:Q1 to 2012:Q4. Furthermore, the OCA theory and the pre- conditions of inflation targeting are used to make a choice between a common currency and inflation targeting for the Gambia. The findings from the Johansen test of cointegration suggest that the selected key macroeconomic variables are cointegrated, meaning, they have long run equilibrium. The results of the VECM reveal that error correction mechanism can be achieved in some of the variables. This indicates that there exists the convergence process. In addition, the results from the impulse response analysis put forward that the macroeconomic variables have effect on...
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Currency separation of Czechoslovakia in 1993 - any lessons for the Euro area?
Husek, Daniel ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Břízová, Pavla (referee)
This thesis analyses important aspects of the Czechoslovak currency separation, its incentives, technical and organizational solutions and the total expense of the operation. The main contribution of this work is (i) comparing the situation in the Czech and Slovak Federative Republic before the currency separation in 1993 with the situation in Euro area countries after 2008 and describing its similarities, (ii) analytical view of a possible application of the solutions used within the separation of the Czechoslovak currency in the context of the Euro area states, and (iii) discussion about possible gains from leaving the European Monetary Union.
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Central bank's Independence, Transparency and Accountability: Comparison between the National Bank of Georgia and the European Central Bank
Nakani, Nino ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Babin, Adrian (referee)
1 Abstract The thesis constructs the indices of independence, transparency and accountability of the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) and European Central Bank (ECB). The results for the NBG are compared with the ECB and policy recommendations for the NBG based on ECB practice are suggested. The results of the analyses show that the ECB has achieved almost full independence and transparency in conducting the monetary policy but there are less favorable results in case of accountability. The NBG, even though revealed a gradual increase in its independence, transparency and accountability since 1998, still needs to put more effort into improving its autonomy, communication practices and responsibility.
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Fed's and ECB's monetary policy during the crisis - differences and their reasons
Žáček, Jan ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Franče, Václav (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyzes the approaches of the Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank to monetary policy during the crisis. The main part of this thesis is devoted to unconventional monetary policy measures conducted during the crisis. We firstly introduce the respective measures, subsequently compare them and state reasons which caused different behaviour of the Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank. This thesis states six main differences and their respective reasons. First, the fundamental difference is the perspective on unconventional monetary policy measures in terms of whether they were considered a substitute or complement to the existing policy instruments. The second significant difference can be found in the behaviour before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Third, the timing of implementation of measures was also distinct. Fourth, the purchases of government bonds were common for the Federal Reserve System even before the crisis, while for the European Central Bank it was a novelty. The fifth difference is in the use of outright purchases versus collateralized lending. The last difference resides in the attitude toward main interest rates steering, in which the Federal Reserve System was more aggressive than the European Central Bank. Reasons which contributed to...
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Inflation targeting performance in emerging economies and some lessons for Moldova
Talasimova, Irina ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Mejstřík, Michal (referee)
The present paper has attempted to provide an empirically argumented basis on the existing conflict about effectiveness of IT regime on lowering inflation and inflation volatility. In the first part we perform panel analysis on a group of 43 emerging and developing economies for a more recent period ranging from 1997 to 2011, distinguishing between normal and crisis times as well as between geographical regions. Differently from common studies we applied dynamic panel model specification that controls for reverse causality of regime adoption. Despite broad arguments addresing IT ineffectiveness, our results support the regime and imply that shifting to IT will lower both inflation and inflation volatility in normal times. Model specification during the external shocks was inconclusive on the selected sample with relatively recent IT history. Regarding the geographical IT performance, we outlined that regime effectiveness was uniform along analyzed regions. In the second part we perform a preliminary analysis of a developing economy IT experience and conclude that, even though there are some problems of technical nature and main policy rate is still a weak instrument of transmission channel, the Republic of Moldova chose right time for regime adoption and has made considerable progress towards the...
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Monetary Union of Belarus and Russia - Analysis of Possible Costs for the Belarusian Economy
Laurentsyeva, Nadzeya ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
Author: Nadzeya Laurentsyeva Title: Monetary Union of Belarus and Russia - Analysis of Possible Costs for the Belarusian Economy Abstract The thesis analyses alignment of the Belarusian and Russian economies with the aim to infer on costs of the possible monetary union for Belarus. Having estimated a structural vector autoregression model with long-run restrictions, we conclude that the economies have shared common supply and external demand shocks, but other temporary fluctuations have been, in large, asymmetric. Structural discrepancies (as proven by the qualitative analysis) and differences in the monetary policy foci and transmission (as illustrated by the estimation results of Taylor rules and a monetary vector autoregression model) could account for increasing misalignment since 2010. In terms of the welfare costs for Belarus (evaluated with a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model), the monetary union can be considered preferable to the current monetary policy of the National bank of the Republic of Belarus, while being inferior to the hypothetical inflation targeting regime. The welfare gap between the two arrangements reduces, if stronger domestic price flexibility and higher synchronization of productivity shocks can be assumed.
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