Translated title: Monetary Union of Belarus and Russia - Analysis of Possible Costs for the Belarusian Economy
Authors: Laurentsyeva, Nadzeya ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
Document type: Master’s theses
Year: 2013
Language: eng
Abstract: Author: Nadzeya Laurentsyeva Title: Monetary Union of Belarus and Russia - Analysis of Possible Costs for the Belarusian Economy Abstract The thesis analyses alignment of the Belarusian and Russian economies with the aim to infer on costs of the possible monetary union for Belarus. Having estimated a structural vector autoregression model with long-run restrictions, we conclude that the economies have shared common supply and external demand shocks, but other temporary fluctuations have been, in large, asymmetric. Structural discrepancies (as proven by the qualitative analysis) and differences in the monetary policy foci and transmission (as illustrated by the estimation results of Taylor rules and a monetary vector autoregression model) could account for increasing misalignment since 2010. In terms of the welfare costs for Belarus (evaluated with a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model), the monetary union can be considered preferable to the current monetary policy of the National bank of the Republic of Belarus, while being inferior to the hypothetical inflation targeting regime. The welfare gap between the two arrangements reduces, if stronger domestic price flexibility and higher synchronization of productivity shocks can be assumed.
Keywords: monetary union; optimum currency area; monetary union; optimum currency area

Institution: Charles University Faculties (theses) (web)
Document availability information: Available in the Charles University Digital Repository.
Original record: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11956/58545

Permalink: http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-327802


The record appears in these collections:
Universities and colleges > Public universities > Charles University > Charles University Faculties (theses)
Academic theses (ETDs) > Master’s theses