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Numerical Modelling of Two-Prize Asymmetric Contests
Matysková, Ludmila ; Gregor, Martin (advisor) ; Cingl, Lubomír (referee)
This thesis presents an analysis on a class of asymmetric imperfectly discrim- inating multi-prize contests with the aim to investigate when more than one prize becomes optimal prize allocation if the average effort is to be maximized. We present n-person model with heterogeneous contestants who compete for two, possibly different, prizes. The contestants may differ in their relative abil- ities, i.e., parameters affecting their probabilities to win either of the prizes. Two different numerical methods for finding pure strategy Nash equilibria are employed. Depending on particular distributions of the abilities, we find two possible scenarios when the second prize becomes optimal. Furthermore, we ad- dress an issue of existence and uniqueness of a pure strategy Nash equilibrium with respect to the returns to scale in effort parameter. JEL Classification C63, D72 Keywords Imperfectly discriminating contests; Heteroge- neous abilities; Multiple prizes; Numerical meth- ods Author's e-mail lida.matyskova@centrum.cz Supervisor's e-mail gregor@fsv.cuni.cz
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Informal Economy: A micro-level analysis
Vu Duc, Cuong ; Levely, Ian Vandemark (advisor) ; Cingl, Lubomír (referee)
This paper analyzes association of informal economy with demographic charac- teristics. The first part introduces the definition and composition of the informal economy and sets the theoretical background. It presents its consequences and causes from different points of view. In the second part, we isolate characteris- tics that predict the propensity to work in the informal economy using the probit model. The work finds that the direction of individual effects matches with find- ings in Latin America reported by Perry et al. (2007). Keywords Informal economy, Shadow economy, South Africa, econometrics
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Stigma as a self-fulfilling prophecy? An experiment in the Czech prisons
Cingl, L. ; Korbel, Václav
Prison inmates face many problems after their release which may hinder their reintegration into society. Discrimination from the society can lead among the inmates to the creation of a stigma of an ex-inmate. In such a situation, the history of the prison sentence is a source of shame and prejudice from the side of society. It can further lead to a loss of motivation and self-confidence, and ultimately to an increase in the probability of recidivism. The goal of our project was to investigate whether inmates currently serving a sentence expect stigmatization from people out of prison. Another goal was to test whether a light-touch psychological intervention targeting the self-confidence can reduce the effects of stigma. We tested our research questions on a sample of 297 male inmates from 15 Czech prisons using methods of experimental economics. Inmates made decisions involving trust and altruism in situations which simulate interactions with the general society so that we could measure the expectations of inmates about the attitudes they have. Our results show that inmates do not expect stigmatization. On the contrary, they expect a similar level of trust and even a more altruistic behavior from the general society than towards non-prisoners. Since inmates do not expect to be stigmatized, the psychological intervention did change neither beliefs nor behavior. The fact that prisoners do not expect stigmatization can be regarded as positive for their future reintegration. On the other hand, some inmates reported overly optimistic beliefs\nregarding the behavior of the general society. It could be one of the reasons why they do not prepare adequately for the release and subsequently recidivate. Further research should shed light, whether overly optimistic beliefs can negatively affect prospects for reintegration.
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Anti-social behavior in groups
Bauer, Michal ; Cahlíková, J. ; Celik Katreniak, D. ; Chytilová, Julie ; Cingl, L. ; Želinský, T.
This paper provides strong evidence supporting the long-standing speculation that decisionmaking in groups has a dark side, by magnifying the prevalence of anti-social behavior towards outsiders. A large-scale experiment implemented in Slovakia and Uganda (N=2,309) reveals that deciding in a group with randomly assigned peers increases the prevalence of anti-social behavior that reduces everyone’s payoff but which improves the relative position of own group. The effects are driven by the influence of a group context on individual behavior, rather than by group deliberation. The observed patterns are strikingly similar on both continents.
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Hormones and Competitive Behavior
Sýkora, Zdeněk ; Cingl, Lubomír (advisor) ; Bauer, Michal (referee)
The thesis aims to contribute to the literature on the biological underpinnings of important economic behaviors. Financial markets can become dangerously unstable from many reasons such as the hormones contained in our bodies. We primarily focus on the effect of basal testosterone and cortisol on willingness to compete and risk taking. We also investigate their interaction called the dual-hormone hypothesis, because it has not been sufficiently analyzed and replicated so far. We run a controlled laboratory experiment with 96 university students and have gender-balanced dataset, thus we can also examine gender differences. We find no support that higher testosterone increase willingness to compete in men as opposed to most of the recent literature. Moreover, higher levels of testosterone decrease competitiveness but only for women. We further find positive effect of the 2D:4D ratio for women and negative effect of trait anxiety for men on competitiveness. There are also substantial gender differences in competitive and risk taking behavior. We cannot confirm the dual-hormone hypothesis for willingness to compete. But we find significant support for the dual-hormone hypothesis for risk taking for women and with negative effect of testosterone on risk taking. The effects stay robust even after...
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Evaluation of behavioral insights with its aplication in the Czech Republic
Makovec, Petr ; Cingl, Lubomír (advisor) ; Štěpánek, Pavel (referee)
Implementing behavioral insights into policy making goes along well with widespread effort for increased efficiency. From the public budget administrator point of view, this efficiency is crucial since it directly affects the current state of the budget. The theoretical part of this thesis consists of description of the most important parts of behavioral economics that can be used during the creation and setting of public policies. It also consists of brief description of current behavioral insights teams that are already using the insights representing more realistic behavior and decision making of individuals. In the analytical part of this thesis, I provide methodology of experiment evaluation as well as result extrapolation facets and risks. Those experiments usually take place before any reasonable extension is made. I also provide financial analysis of several experiments, should they be extended to larger group of individuals. In the last chapter of the analytical part, I discuss the possibilities of implementation of behavioral economics in the Czech Republic. Based on the calculations I ran, even a small change of the environment where people make decisions can significantly improve the results of the intervention, all that with minimal costs. It is however important to point out that not all behavioral insights inspirations end with success. Application of behavioral insights into policy making has got a great potential when it comes to the Czech Republic, as I show Using two examples from Health care and taxes revenues.
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Zmírňování kognitivních zkreslení: Jak udělat rozhodování v byznyse racionálnější?
Kučera, Tomáš ; Cingl, Lubomír (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
The thesis is concerned with cognitive biases, especially with confirmation bias, and with various approaches to their mitigation. It elaborates on three main categories of debiasing strategies, namely increasing incentives, adjusting the environment in order to avoid or offset the bias, and training people in recognizing the situations in which a bias occurs and in mitigating the effects of the bias. An experiment in which the patterns of information selection and the effects of a debiasing training were investigated is reported. The results show that participants exhibited confirmation bias both in the selection of information and in the information processing, and that debiasing training effectively decreased the level of confirmation bias by 33 % at the 5% significance level. The debiasing training took the form of a short video which included information about confirmation bias and its impact on judgement, and mitigation strategies.
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Cognitive biases: How much are we influenced by previous rating? Effect of previous rating on the following "quality" of the movie.
Michňák, Matěj ; Cingl, Lubomír (advisor) ; Máslo, Lukáš (referee)
This thesis examines whether our choice of movie rating is influenced by previous rating based on a simple web experiment. There are 2 groups - group of laymen from the ranks of students and group of active movie fans. Each participant was randomly distributed into one of 3 subgroups in his group. There is a control subgroup with no previous rating, a treatment subgroup with low previous rating and a treatment subgroup with high previous rating. In 3 out of 4 treatment subgroups there was found out using regression analysis significant change of average rating in comparison to control subgroups by more than 1 point on scale 1 to 10. There wasn´t found out smaller bias towards previous rating in group of movie fans, which was the reason why this group had been added. Subgroups with low previous rating influence average rating in both groups, subgroups with high previous rating only in group of active movie fans.
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