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Consumers, consumer prices and the Czech business cycle identification
Podpiera, Jiří
This paper proposes an alternative method for deriving the business cycle. It interprets the varying inflationary responses to a constant demand shock in a partial equilibrium model. An above-average inflationary response indicates a boom phase and a below-average response shows an economic slowdown. Model uses data for prices and household budget shares which are not subject to revisions and are consistent with the inflation measure.
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The role of banks in the Czech monetary policy transmission mechanism
Pruteanu, Anca
Objective of this work is to enrich the knowledge about the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic with empirical evidence on the impact of monetary policy on bank lending. Using a panel of quarterly time series for Czech commercial banks for the period 1996–2001, it studies the overall effect of monetary policy changes on the growth rate of loans and the characteristics of the supply of loans.
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EU enlargement and endogeneity of some OCA criteria: evidence from the CEECs
Babetskii, Ian
There are two opposite points of view on the link between economic integration and business cycle synchronization - "The European Commission View" and "The Krugman View". According to the European Commission, closer integration leads to less frequent asymmetric shocks and to more synchronized business cycles between countries. On the other hand, for Krugman closer integration implies higher specialization and, thus, higher risks of idiosyncratic shocks. Drawing on the evidence from a group of transition countries which have experienced a notable increase in trade openness and economic integration with the European Union during the past decade, this paper tries to determine whose argument is supported by the data.
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ERM II membership - the view of the accession countries
Komárek, Luboš ; Čech, Zdeněk ; Horváth, Roman
This report examines the implications of membership in ERM2. The experience of the present eurozone members with ERM/ERM2 membership shows that none of them faced a significant challenge in the two-year “evaluation” period in terms of the exchange rate stability convergence criterion. This could also be attributable to the stability policies prescribed by the Maastricht Treaty.
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Price convergence: What can the Balassa-Samuelson model tell us?
Holub, Tomáš ; Čihák, Martin
The paper provides a theoretical reference point for discussions on adjustments in price levels and relative prices. The authors present a “nested” model integrating the Balassa–Samuelson model of the real equilibrium exchange rate with a model of accumulation of capital and with the demand side of the economy. Consequently, they show how the model can be generalised to a case of numerous commodities with different degrees of tradability.
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Czech Fiscal Policy: Introductory analysis
Bezděk, Vladimír ; Dybczak, Kamil ; Krejdl, Aleš
The subject of this work are the following questions: What is the size of quasi-fiscal operations and their impact on the overall fiscal balance and public debt in the Czech Republic? Is the recent increase in Czech fiscal deficits fully attributable to the business cycle, or are there non-cyclical factors in place? And last but not least, what are the long-term perspectives of the fiscal system given the size and speed of the expected population ageing process?
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