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Financial earthquakes: Are volatility correlations related to Omori's law?
Bureš, Vlastimil ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Žigraiová, Diana (referee)
The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the market dynamics in periods following a large financial shock. In order to do so, we compute the cumulative number of times the volatility is greater than a given threshold. Such a method is analogous to Omori's law from geophysics. We draw statistical evidence from three different events. The first one is concerned with the death of Steve Jobs and how it affected the evolution of Apple's share price. The second one focuses on the Flash Crash of 2010 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced the largest drop of 900 points. And the last one is when IBM announced its 2013Q1 earnings which were significantly below expectations. By employing two different approaches to volatility calculation, we are able to compare the obtained results and thus draw a more definite conclusion. Our findings suggest that the decay rate of after-shocks for the considered earthquakes is well described by a power-law which is analogous to Omori's law. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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U.S. Monetary Policy and Bank Liquidity Creation: VAR Evidence
Lacko, Branislav ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Žigraiová, Diana (referee)
With recent financial crisis the importance of liquidity not only as indicator of financial health of banks heightened. Thus this thesis aims the focus to relationship between real economy and bank liquidity creation, and provides empirical evidence of significant relationship between bank liquidity creation and GDP or inflation. Moreover, it shows that implementation of bank liquidity creation indicator into Taylor rule, in order to address for financial stability and health, is suitable alternative for financial stress index.
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Housing Prices in the Czech Republic and Slovakia: Regional Comparison
Cempírek, Petr ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Žigraiová, Diana (referee)
The objective of the present Bachelor's thesis is to compare the behavior of housing prices in the Czech Republic and Slovakia using econometric analysis. First, the author presents the historical context and basic housing indicators. After verifying that variables in dataset are cointegrated, a panel DOLS es- timator for modelling housing prices is employed. The author uses quarterly regional data in order to analyze the response of basic housing price fundamen- tals in the two countries that formed one federation until 1992. By forming a short run equation with an error-correction term the author checks for the existence of long run housing price equilibrium and for the speed of price rever- sion to equilibrium in case it is misaligned. The author then focuses on housing price misalignments as well as their dynamics in the individual regions.
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What Are the Main Determinants of Banks' Ratings Across CEE Countries?
Wolf, Kryštof ; Seidler, Jakub (advisor) ; Žigraiová, Diana (referee)
This thesis uses data of more than 180 banks from CEE region to identify the main determinants of long term credit ratings assigned to these banks in period between 2010 - 2012. This is done by employing two frequently used classification methods - Multiple Discriminant Analysis and Ordered Logit Model. The main contribution lies in including explanatory variables from various areas which have impact on financial health of examined banks. Apart from standard spheres of banks' performance such as capital adequacy, asset quality or profitability we investigate relevance of macroeconomic and qualitative factors as well. Although our results suggest that all mentioned areas are relevant for credit risk and hence rating assignment process the bank specific variables, both quantitative and qualitative, still play the key role.
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Systemic Risks Assessment and Systemic Events Prediction: Early Warning System Design for the Czech Republic
Žigraiová, Diana ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Doležel, Pavel (referee)
This thesis develops an early warning system framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs, over the short horizon of six quarters and the long horizon of twelve quarters on the panel of 14 countries both advanced and developing. Firstly, Financial Stress Index is built aggregating indicators from equity, foreign exchange, security and money markets in order to identify starting dates of systemic financial crises for each country in the panel. Secondly, the selection of early warning indicators for assessment and prediction of systemic risks is undertaken in a two- step approach; relevant prediction horizons for each indicator are found by means of a univariate logit model followed by the application of Bayesian model averaging method to identify the most useful indicators. Next, logit models containing useful indicators only are estimated on the panel while their in-sample and out-of-sample performance is assessed by a variety of measures. Finally, having applied the constructed EWS for both horizons to the Czech Republic it was found that even though models for both horizons perform very well in-sample, i.e. both predict 100% of crises, only the long model attains the maximum utility of 0,5 as...
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Portfolio investment for individual investors : (portfolio recommendations for three case studies)
Žigraiová, Diana ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee) ; Pečená, Magda (advisor)
The thesis focuses on the portfolio investment area with respect to individual investors. It discusses their investment possibilities and behavioural aspects that may be the cause of deviations in investors' behaviour from rationality and which as well have the impact on forming their investment objectives. On the three investor case studies two qualitatitive methods of asset allocation are studied, eventually dividing the content of their investment portfolios between stocks and bonds. Additionally, the extension to the traditional stock and bond allocation is performed by means of real estate, commodities and art and antiques and its appropriateness is analyzed for each case study investor. At the very end of the thesis a quantitative mean-variance optimization method of asset allocation is mentioned.
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Financial and business cycles in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe emerging markets
Kučerová, Martina ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Žigraiová, Diana (referee)
This thesis analyzes development of financial and business cycles in CESEE region using the sample of 23 emerging economies over the period 1995q1- 2015q4. We report three main results. First, we identify more cases of financial cycles than business cycles. Financial cycles measured by house price ratio tend to last longer in comparison to credit cycles. Second, cross-correlation results detect high synchronization of business and financial cycles among economies. The concordance index indicate that business cycles and financial cycles are rather counter-cyclical as the index values are low in the most economies from our sample. Third, regression findings reveal that the indicators of economic activity are important in affecting the downturn duration of financial cycles. For the upturn phase are more relevant the financial development measures. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords CESEE, Financial cycle, Business cycle, turning points analysis Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Management Board Composition of Banking Institutions and Bank Risk-Taking: The Case of the Czech Republic
Žigraiová, Diana
The paper investigates how the management board composition of banking institutions affects their risk-taking behavior in the Czech Republic. More specifically, we examine the effect of average director age, the proportion of female directors, the proportion of non-national directors, and director education level on four different bank risk proxies. We build a unique data set comprising selected biographical information on the management board members of Czech financial institutions holding a banking license over the 2001–2012 period. Our most robust finding is that higher proportions of non-national directors increase bank risk as measured by profit volatility and reduce bank stability as captured by the Z-score for the Czech banking sector overall and for the segments of general commercial banks, small and mid-sized banks and adequately capitalized banks. Moreover, we also detect risk-increasing implications of board size for the segments of building societies and small and mid-sized banks. As for average board tenure, its effect on risk-taking varies depending on bank characteristics. We find mixed evidence on the effect of female directors and do not find any strong effect of directors’ age on risk in the Czech banking sector. All in all, the results of our analysis are subject to the proxy of bank risk used. The reader should keep in mind that higher absolute level of bank risk is not necessarily unfavorable as it does not capture if risk-taking behavior is excessive for a given return.
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Labour Market Adjustment since the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from a Survey of Czech Firms
Babecký, Jan ; Galuščák, Kamil ; Žigraiová, Diana
The paper reports how Czech firms reacted to changes in economic conditions in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008–2009 until 2013 and identifies specific patterns of employment, wage and price adjustment by firms. The results are drawn from a survey of firms conducted within the third wave of the ESCB Wage Dynamics Network (WDN3). Overall, while changes in demand were both positive and negative over the period, aggregate wage growth remained low, although more firms experienced an increase in average productivity over labour costs than a decline. Labour cost reduction was achieved mainly by reduction of new hires and by individual layoffs. The main obstacles to hiring workers were uncertainty about economic conditions, high payroll taxes and a shortage of labour with the required skills. The frequency of wage changes was lower in 2010–2013 than before and was attributed by firms inter alia to stronger competition. Wage freezes and wage cuts were still in use, while wage growth was more likely to be observed in very small and large firms and firms with a foreign owner. The frequency of price changes in 2010–2013 compared to 2008–2009 remained unchanged for more than 80% of firms. More frequent price changes were due to stronger competition and volatility in demand, while exchange rate changes contributed to higher frequency of price changes on foreign markets.
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Bank Competition and Financial Stability: Much Ado about Nothing?
Havránek, Tomáš ; Žigraiová, Diana
The theoretical literature gives conflicting predictions on how bank competition should affect financial stability, and dozens of researchers have attempted to evaluate the relationship empirically. We collect 598 estimates of the competition-stability nexus reported in 31 studies and analyze the literature using meta-analysis methods. We control for 35 aspects of study design and employ Bayesian model averaging to tackle the resulting model uncertainty. Our findings suggest that the definition of financial stability and bank competition used by researchers influences their results in a systematic way. The choice of data, estimation methodology, and control variables also affects the reported coefficient. We find evidence for moderate publication bias. Taken together, the estimates reported in the literature suggest little interplay between competition and stability, even when corrected for publication bias and potential misspecifications.
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