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Methods of Robust Econometrics with Applications to Economic Data
Michalíková, Eva ; Víšek, Jan Ámos (advisor) ; Egger, Peter (referee) ; Lachout, Petr (referee) ; Grendár, Marian (referee)
This thesis if focused on the application of methods of robust econometrics to real economic data. We focuse on the issuies of international trade in Czech Republic and the problem of employment and growth of small businesses in Europe. We also focues on estimation of panel data by classical approaches (least squares, fixed effects, GMM) and bzy robust techniques. The first part of dissertation focuses on analyzing determinants of FDI in Czech manufacturing industry. The aim is to estimate a model where the stock of FDI is expressed as a function of several economic factors (K/L, profit per worker, R&D, Balassa index and others). We estimate these models by OLS, fixed effects and GMM. With regard to ambiguous results we used least trimmed squares as a diagnostic tool for detection of outliers. Elimination of two polluting industries out of the data set brings certain improvement in significance of some factors. The second part of dissertation we focus on an estimation of models of employment and net production in 28 European countries for small businesses as a function of economic and institutional variables by special technique of estimation. We describe robust version of within group fixed effects estimation. The aim of paper is to estimate a set of models and to test the properties of estimator. With...
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Determinants of Austrian International Trade: Econometric Analysis Based on the Gravity Model
Davidová, Lucie ; Benáček, Vladimír (advisor) ; Hrbek, Pavel (referee)
The purpose of this thesis is to examine Austrian foreign trade and estimate this country's export function. The analysis is based on the gravity model in trade in log-log form, augmented by additional variables (adjacency, REER, institutional indices, etc.). Our panel dataset consists of 3396 observations of Austrian exports to 211 countries over the period of 1995-2011. First, we examine main export partners and SITC articles and we come to a conclusion that Austria is heavily oriented to Germany and SITC 7 (machinery and transport equipment). We employ FE and RE as estimation techniques and distinguish between them according to the Hausman test. We emphasise that panel data structure does matter and estimate the gravity equation twice - once as 17 cross sections and then as 211 time series. The most important determinants appear to be domestic and partner's GDP, bilateral distance, adjacency and a country being landlocked. Subsequently, we give different techniques to deal with zero and missing observations, and calculate relative trade potential realisation for year 2011. Most of the top-ten export partners seem to be over their potential.
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Modeling spatial interactions on the example of the regional cities
Zelenka, Jaroslav ; Marada, Miroslav (advisor) ; Chmelík, Jakub (referee)
Management and planning of transportation is becoming more important in terms of continuously growing intensity of spatial interactions, which are still mostly realized through transport networks. That's why we can deal with this specific problem of transportation geography using for example spatial interactions modeling. The general aim of the thesis is modeling of spatial interactions and their subsequent comparison with real flows by using calibration in order to predicate the future value of flows taking the planned changes in the transport network in consideration. The main tool used to achieve the goal of the thesis is the gravity model which was applied on the example of regional capitals in the Czech Republic. Based on accomplishments we may say, that centers with lower significance of monitored relations are characterized by further location towards most centers, small number of inhabitants, low intensity of model interactions and lower values of transport intensities with neighboring centers. With the center growth itself, its range of interactions with other centers grows as well. Key Words: spatial interactions modeling, gravity model, model interaction, transport intensity, regional capitals
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The effect of european economic integration on international trade
Tománek, Ondřej ; Dlouhá, Zuzana (advisor) ; Čermáková, Klára (referee)
This bachelor thesis aims to economic integration of Europe. In the first part, it focuses on issues of stages of economic integration. The second part is dedicated to Europen Monetary union, its advantages and disadvantages. The next part is dealing with history and development of EU, CEFTA, EFTA, BAFTA. In final part, we use gravity model of international trade to analyze influence of each mentioned integrated group. Panel dataset consists of 27 776 observations of 23 years (1993-2015). Our results are consistent with other researchers, that are dealing with this issues. But some differences have been found. Preferential trading areas increases international trade, but the EMU coefficient is negative. Later on, we compare calculated potential exports of the czech republic to real exports to neighboring countries.
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IMPACT OF FOREIGN TRADE ON THE ECONOMICAL AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT OF GEORGIA
Ghimire, Suraj ; Van Damme, Patrick (advisor) ; Nikolas, Nikolas (referee)
Today, regional and foreign trade is inevitable for a geographically small country like Georgia where resources and markets for sustainable and economic growth are limited. The role of agricultural exports in the economic performance of Georgia was clearly demonstrated by the experience of the collapse of the national economy after independence from the Soviet Union, when Georgian farmers lost the export potential to former Soviet Union countries. As one of the tools, which struggles to re-start agricultural production and trade, in recent years, Georgian countryside experiences abrupt increase in number of agricultural cooperatives that are being established as a result of joint endeavor of international programs and Georgian government. For local farmers, who typically hold small plots of fragmented land, cooperatives are promoted as a tool for better market access and consequently increase of income and poverty reduction. The crucial product, with traditionally highest potential for exports is wine. Georgia, a country located between Caspian Sea and Black sea is also known as cradle of wine. Country's wine industry wants to diversify the markets and expand the export potential.
The proposed dissertation thesis will evaluate the Constraints and opportunities of small farmers' market access in Georgia. The whole research is based on econometric time series techniques Granger causality, Co-integration test, Gravity Model, Probit Model, and first-hand experience through personal interviews of authors with members of cooperatives. The results from the research will have important implications for policy-makers in order to implement appropriate growth and development strategies of agriculture and to agricultural trade.
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Analysis of the Impact of Common Currency on the International Trade within the Member Countries of the European Union
Křapáček, Tomáš ; Chytilová, Helena (advisor) ; Mirvald, Michal (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to confirm and consequently quantify the impact of common currency on the size of bilateral trade flows within the member countries of the European Union with the help of gravity model of international trade. The hypothesis of anticipated positive effect was confirmed, whereas performed regression analysis has provided constant estimations of impact of the euro on the size of international trade, which - assuming ceteris paribus - ranged in the interval from 13.6 to 16.3%. Data set tracked the flow of goods of 378 business partners in the period between 2001-2014 providing a very detailed analysis in this specific area, which, according to my knowledge, is missing in the current EU space. At the same time the so-called Lindner's hypothesis was confirmed. This hypothesis together with a new theory of trade helped to identify a model that speaks in favor of monopolistic competition and exchanges with differentiated products.
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Retail availability in the Vysočina region
BOUZKOVÁ, Renata
This bachelor thesis deals with retail availability in the Vysočina region. Hypermarkets were chosen as retail units. There are 14 hypermarkets in Vysočina and they are operated by three companies: AHOLD Czech Republic, a.s., Kaufland Czech Republic, v.o.s. and Tesco Stores ČR, a.s. The main target is to define the most optimal locations for these hypermarkets and compare it with the current existing locations. Key term definition as retail, gravity models, geographic information system and spatial analysis are in the first part of the project. The practical part of the project is about the various methods of how to determine the retail availability. This is realized by application of Thiessens polygons, packaging zones in hypermarkets (buffers), service zones modeling using network analysis tools in the Network Analyst and application of Huff's gravity model. It is important to get experience with the user environment of software ArcGIS, which has been used for analyzes and after that for maps visualization. Based on the results are recommended possible solutions how to improve the future configuration of the retail network.
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Construction of estimates of interregional commodity flows by using gravity model
Kieslichová, Kateřina ; Zbranek, Jaroslav (advisor) ; Sixta, Jaroslav (referee)
The aim of my thesis is the construction of estimates of interregional commodity flows for the regions of the Czech Republic, by using a gravity model. Gravity model is based on Newton's law of gravitation. Gravity models can be used in two different information contexts. The first is an information context, when the spatial interaction flows are known a priori, and the model is used to explain the trade flows' behaviour. And the second is an information context in which these interactions are totally unknown a priori and the flows must be estimated. This paper is focused on the second information context. When we estimating commodity flows we need to know the value of exports and imports for individual regions. Estimated interregional commodity flows are the results of this work. Estimated interregional flows are put into the regional input-output tables compiled by the Department of Economic Statistics. Regional input-output tables are arranged so as to reached the equality of resources and use. On the basis of the resulting tables for all regions, I conducted a input-output analysis. Input-output analysis examines the impact of model changes to investment on selected commodities, to estimated interregional flows and selected macroeconomic indicators.
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Ohodnotenie vplyvu sankcií na obchod medzi EU a Ruskom
Hašková, Barbara ; Klosová, Anna (advisor) ; Coniglio, Nicola (referee)
This thesis concerns about the effectiveness of sanctions imposed between Russia and the EU in 2014. Firstly are conducted theoretical foundations of sanctions and their imposition from the EU as well as Russian contra-sanctions. Secondly, the analysis is based on the gravity model in trade in log-linear form and further develop out-of-sample estimations about trade potentials. Although trade potentials did not proved the expected decrease in exports from EU to Russia, the Input-Output analysis of impacts on exports of food products did so. Results yielded calculated impacts on GDP of various countries due to food embargo that are more or less comparable with the actual evolution of GDP and trade flows. Thirdly, the indirect effects of sanctions of third country effect and re-exports are observed from trade patterns. There has been recorded increased exports of food related products from the EU towards members of Euroasian Customs Union as well as increased imports from these countries to Russia. Finally, the results points out decreased economic activity of Russia due to depreciation of domestic currency, capital flight, decline in oil prices and also sanctions adding up to the problems the economy deals with. The economic impacts of sanctions are present in both parties. However, from the political view sanctions did not proved to be effective so far. Russian intervention in Ukraine territory is continuing.
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Gravity Model of International Trade in Alcoholic Beverages in Selected EU Countries
Pecka, Marek ; Arltová, Markéta (advisor) ; Bubáková, Petra (referee)
Panel data analysis is the modern approach of statistical and econometric modeling. The aim of the thesis is to estimate the gravity model of international trade in alcoholic beverages in the form of bilateral trade flow depending on the gross domestic product and other associated variables that facilitate trading. The data have a panel structure. Based on the results of panel unit root tests the stationarity of variables in the panel and the expected long-term relationship between the analyzed variables are tested. Gravity model is assuming the existence of long-term relationships built through various methods, such as pooling OLS estimate, fixed and random effects models, cointegrated regression DOLS and FMOLS. Cointegration relationship is verified by Pedroni panel test.
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