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Global Economic Outlook - September 2017
Česká národní banka
The September issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also look at the real exchange rate phenomenon from the perspective of what it tells us about EU countries. The real exchange rate reflects movements in both the nominal exchange rate and relative price levels. This means it can be used, for example, to assess a country’s convergence efforts (towards the core euro area countries), to discuss the central bank’s effect on the distribution of real appreciation (between the nominal exchange rate and the inflation differential channels) and to track the external competitiveness of an EU economy, and hence also the euro area. This is the line followed by our article, which examines the period from the establishment of the euro area in 1999 to the present.
Fulltext:  PDF; PDF
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Global Economic Outlook - August 2017
Česká národní banka
The August issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we continue our summer mini-series on the economic impacts of Brexit on the United Kingdom. In the July issue, we focused on the short-term effects, whereas this issue summarises the conclusions of the most important studies analysing Brexit from the longer-term perspective. These studies concur that the UK economy will lose out by leaving the EU, a prediction that is gradually being confirmed by actual economic developments. However, it is still difficult to estimate the real extent of the economic impacts of Brexit, as it will depend primarily on the terms negotiated between the UK and the EU. In our analysis, we therefore present the main possible scenarios quantifying how much the UK will pay for Brexit in terms of loss of GDP.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
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Monetary policy Trilemma of CBRT in the context of economic and political development of Turkey
Daněk, Jakub ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Hnát, Pavel (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to verify the validity of The Theory of Exchange Rate and The Theory of Monetary Policy Trilemma in the real environment and to analyze the effect of the trilemma on the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. I chose Turkey as an object of research because of its economic, political and monetary policy development in the second half of the twentieth century and in the twenty-first century. This thesis consists of three chapters. The first chapter summarizes the theoretical framework related to the topic. In the second chapter, I describe and analyze the political and economic development of Turkey. In the third chapter, I verify the validity of the theories and analyze the relationships between macroeconomic variables using econometric methods and further evaluate these relationships based on the findings from the second chapter.
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Fundamental analysis of the Czech crown
Vejvalka, David ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Mandel, Martin (referee)
The bachelor thesis is focused on development of exchange rate between Czech crown American dollar and euro respectively during 1993 and 2017. Special attention is paid on nominal exchange rate, real effective exchange rate and purchasing power parity exchange rate. Analysis is done in the context of exchange rate systems, which are described in the theoretical part of the thesis. In the last chapter, there is executed econometric test regarding reciprocal dependency between gross domestic product and nominal exchange rates.
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Possibilities and Methods of Exchange Rate Risk Management
Cheuzova, Olga ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Marková, Jana (referee)
The subject of this bachelor thesis Possibilities and Methods of Exchange Rate Risk Management is to understand how the exchange rate risk arises and how it can be managed, analysis of methods and options of exchange rate risk management and determination of exchange rate risk by the international stock company Orco Property Group S.A. which eliminates the unfavorable impacts of the development of individual of the functional currencies of the subsidiaries on the consolidated balance sheet. The first part focuses on the understanding of the course risk management process from a theoretical point of view. The second part introduces Orco, its financial analysis, analysis of its foreign exchange exposure and currency risk management.
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Analysis of the development of the exchange rate on the basis of uncovered interest rate parity
Macháček, Marek ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Obešlo, František (referee)
The aim of this diploma thesis is based on the empirical analysis to identify the relationship between the exchange rate and the interest rates in selected countries and verify the validity of the uncovered interest rate parity. In the first part, the author deals with basic theoretical and exchange rate determinants from a fundamental analysis point of view, which attempts to explain the causality between these two variables. The actual analysis was performed at three levels on monthly time series from 2010 to 2016. Graphical analysis was selected as the first stage of the analysis, also including verification of the validity of the Fisher International Effect. Later, regression and vector autoregressive analysis followed. However, the conclusions of the individual empirical parts show that the exchange rate is determined by many factors, not only by the interest rate differential, as assumed the theory of uncovered interest rate parity. These results are also related to the low quality of the estimated models. Uncovered interest rate parity has been confirmed in very few cases, but none of the monitored currency pairs has been validated at all three levels of empirical analysis at the same time. The work offers valuable insight into the trend appreciation or depreciation of the exchange rates at the positive interest rate differential in the selected period.
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Analýza hospodářské recese 2014 v Ruské federaci
Sergeev, Vladimir ; Soukup, Jindřich (advisor) ; Kulbakov, Nikolay (referee)
The aim of bachelor´s thesis is analyzing of the most important aspects connected with economic crisis in Russian Federation in 2014, defining the basic causes of recession, description of main manifestation in Russian economy, its impact on the economic system and following reaction of the government. The first part of thesis theoretically describes the topic from the perspective of negative economic cycle and trends and processes related with it. Also, thesis presents important characteristics of current Russian economy. Second part starts with main reasons which caused the recession, describes the course of the crisis in years 2014 and 2015, its impact from the perspective of several important macroeconomic indicators and government measures aimed at recovery of damaged economic sectors.
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What is the equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna?
Jančovič, Pavel ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to estimate bilateral equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna relative to Euro and to determine if the Czech currency is undervalued or overvalued relative to the market equilibrium. We employ fundamental (FEER) and behavioral (BEER) equilibrium exchange rate models, which enables to measure the currency position relative to the market rate. To tackle the uncertainty of the implied equilibrium exchange rates that differ among alternative specifications of the models, we aggregate the estimates via principal components analysis. The perception on the market is that Czech koruna is undervalued, since the intervention regime imposed by the Czech National Bank in the 2013, was defending the exchange rate floor of 27 Czech korunas to Euro. Then, we extend conventional specifications of BEER models for variables representing exchange rate interventions and forward rates offered on the market because both can have protracted effects not only on spot rates but on adjustment towards long-term equilibrium as well. The original models with fundamental factors show equilibrium exchange rate near to 25 CZK/EUR. However, extended models with interventions show higher equilibrium exchange rate, near to 27 CZK/EUR. Thus, there is possibility of slow adjustment near to the...
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How is the Swiss economy coping with the CHF appreciation after the SNB's exít?
Borufka, Roman ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Hájek, Jan (referee)
The objective of this thesis is to describe the situation in the Swiss economy before the SNB discontinued the minimum exchange rate. Furthermore, the aim is to anal- yse the impact of the abandonment of the exchange rate floor on key macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, year-on-year changes in consumer and producer prices or unemployment rate. The interactions between CHF/EUR exchange rate and real GDP, CPI and 3-month LIBOR are examined using VAR model on quarterly data from 1999 to 2016. The results suggest that the CHF/EUR exchange rate appreci- ation has temporary dampening effects on GDP, CPI and 3-month LIBOR. These results are consistent with the developments in macroeconomic variables after the discontinuation of the minimum exchange rate. JEL Classification C5, E24, E31, E43, F31 Keywords exchange rate, gross domestic product, consumer price index, interest rate, vector autoregressive model Author's email borufka.r(at)seznam.cz Supervisor's email Tomas.Holub(at)cnb.cz
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