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The impact of CNB's exchange rate commitment on Czech exports
Teichman, Jiří ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
The thesis evaluates the effect of Czech National Bank's exchange rate commit- ment on Czech sectoral exports. Thus, we show how unconventional monetary policies could affect the exports. To assess the impact of interventions, we use Synthetic Control Method. The method constructs synthetic Czech exports from data of comparable countries that were not under the policy of inter- est and compares them to observed Czech exports following the interventions. We expect a positive effect of Czech National Bank's commitment on Czech exports, because the interventions resulted in the undervaluation of koruna causing a higher demand for Czech goods abroad. Additionally, the exporters should benefit from reduced uncertainty caused by no exchange rate volatility with the euro area. The results showed a positive impact of interventions only in half of the export sectors. The positive effect of a stable exchange rate is not confirmed, because the effect on the euro area countries in some categories was smaller than for the other countries. The results for total sectoral exports were stable across model specifications and confirmed by analysis of Czech bi- lateral sectoral exports to the largest destinations. The significant contribution of this thesis is application of Synthetic Control Method on total sectoral...
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Low Interest Rates and Asset Price Fluctuations: Empirical Evidence
Ali, Bano ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Vácha, Lukáš (referee)
The thesis focuses on estimating the effect of expansionary monetary policy concerning asset prices, specifically house and stock prices as they are of pri- mary importance in financial markets. A structural vector autoregressive model is used including data for the Euro Area, the United Kingdom, and the United States from 2007 to 2017. Moreover, instead of short-term nominal interest rate, the shadow policy rate is used to measure the stance of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy. It is useful when policy rates of central banks are at or near zero as it neglects the zero-lower bound. Using both impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition, results suggest that higher interest rates are indeed associated with lower asset prices. That is confirmed by including two different estimates of shadow rates into the model and observing the effect for two specific types of assets. More precisely, house prices react almost immediately showing the most substantial decrease for the United Kingdom, while stock prices slightly increase at first and de- crease afterward with similar size of the effect for all areas under consideration. Finally, the discussion of how the monetary authority should react to asset price fluctuations is provided, summarizing the vast amount of literature...
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Legal position and activities of the Czech National Bank
Král, Vladimír ; Vondráčková, Pavlína (advisor) ; Vybíral, Roman (referee)
Central banks world-widely are institutions of crucial importance for economics of their countries, especially during the years of financial instability, in some cases having also an influence to other economies. The thesis deals with the topic of Czech National Bank (as the central bank of the Czech Republic), its legal position within the Czech legal system and its activities with regards to dynamic development in this area in recent years. The thesis is divided into chapters accordingly to its name and the subject matter. Introduction aims to introduce into topic, briefly describes the structure of the thesis. Introduction is followed by two main chapters - "Legal position of the CNB" and "Activities of the CNB", respectively. These chapters are composed of fractional subchapters and more fractional parts. Thesis is ended by conclusion. Second chapter analyses constitutional provisions relating to Czech National Bank and statutory provision included in Act No. 6/1993 Coll., on the Czech National Bank, with references to respective provisions of law of the European Union. It concerns also two significant rulings of Constitutional court related to the CNB and involves thoughts of some rules currently applied. Special attention is dedicated to the legal conception of CNB's independent position in relation...
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International Spillovers of (Un)Conventional Monetary Policy: The Effect of the ECB and US Fed on Non-Euro EU Countries
Hájek, Jan ; Horváth, Roman
We estimate a global vector autoregression model to examine the effects of euro area and US monetary policy stances, together with the effect of euro area consumer prices, on economic activity and prices in non-euro EU countries using monthly data from 2001-2016. Along with some standard macroeconomic variables, our model contains measures of the shadow monetary policy rate to address the zero lower bound and the implementation of unconventional monetary policy by the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve. We find that these monetary shocks have the expected qualitative effects but their magnitude differs across countries, with Southeastern EU economies being less affected than their peers in Central Europe. Euro area monetary shocks have greater effects than those that emanate from the US. We also find certain evidence that the effects of unconventional monetary policy measures are weaker than those of conventional measures. The spillovers of euro area price shocks to non-euro EU countries are limited, suggesting that the law of one price materializes slowly.
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Analysis of the Economic Crisis in Russian Federation during years 2014-2016
Šmilňák, Richard ; Vostrovská, Zdenka (advisor) ; Vebrová, Ludmila (referee)
The following thesis deals with the analysis of the crisis of Russian economy in 2014-2016. Depicting evolution of economic situation proceding this state of economy serves as a complementary aim to the main goal which is the analysis of state economic policy implementation in contrast with the countrys commodity dependence with the background of ongoing crisis. The focus of the thesis lays upon deconstructing chosen steps of monetary policy as well as modifications of the federal budget while importance of mining and export of oil and natural gas is being discussed. The outcome is a complex observation of the coexistence of monetary and fiscal policy during the process of reversing the path leading to a fiscal collapse.
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The Impact of the Global Crisis 2008-2009 on the US Economic Policy Development
Mintál, Jakub ; Neumann, Pavel (advisor) ; Jedlinský, Jakub (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to characterize the development of economic policy from the beginning of the financial crisis to the current policy in the United States and to determine the impact of this policy on the economy of the United States. The first chapter of this thesis deals generally with the global crisis and solves the cause of the crisis. The second chapter deals with economic policy and describes anti-crisis measures of fiscal and monetary policy. The last chapter deals with the development of key macroeconomic indicators, the development of government debt and Fed's criticism, and evaluates the effectiveness of economic policy.
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Economic policy of Brazil
Janišová, Michaela ; Procházková Ilinitchi, Cristina (advisor) ; Hasík, Gabriel (referee)
The thesis deals with an economic policy of Brazil. The aim of this thesis is to find out the main tools which are used to reach the main targets of economic policy and to evaluate their efficiency. Thesis is divided into three main chapters. In the first one, which is theoretical, is generally defined an economic policy, its functioning and terms which are connected to it. The second chapter focuses on the four main tools of economic policy and its measures to prevent the unfavourable economical and political situation in the country. Eventually, the third chapter, analyses and evaluates the efficiency of economic policy tools in Brazil during the last decade using the four main economical targets.
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Analysis of impacts using the non-conventional instruments of the ČNB monetary policy in the period 2013-2016 on stability of the czech economy
Miňhová, Kristýna ; Pekárek, Štěpán (advisor) ; Bednář, Milan (referee)
In reaction on existence of economic cycles, the period of economic growth is changed with the economic recession, which can grow in the crisis eventually. In such a case, the task of economic policy is to direct the economy in the right direction, back to the boom. The thesis focuses on monetary policy and its ability to achieve this task. The aim of the thesis is to analyze the influence of foreign exchange interventions used in the period of 2013-2017 on the restoration of financial and (macro)economic stability of the Czech Republic. For this purpose, time series of indices describing the stability, the financial stress index and the economic stress index are constructed. A comparative analysis proves that the financial and (macro)economic situation in the Czech Republic has started to stabilize shortly before the unilateral exchange rate commitment to the euro and the impact of foreign exchange interventions cannot be certainly confirmed.
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Monetary policy in Russian Federation and its influence on enterpreneurship
Rogozhnikov, Nikita ; Soukup, Jindřich (advisor) ; Kulbakov, Nikolay (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to analyze and to explain motenary policy of Russian federation central bank and to determine specefic characteristics during 2000-2015, its targets, models, main instruments and methods of regulation. First of all, in the first chapter will be introduced theoritical part of monetary policy, in that part there are the main aspects of monetary policy. Then the functions and the effectiveness of Russian central bank will be described. There are described two periods: 2000-2013 and 2014-2015. The conditions and the causes of the crysis 2014-2015 will be depicted during the analysis of the monetary policy. Equally the instruments which are being used by the central bank will be taken place in that bachelor thesis. In the end, the author describes influence of monetary policy on enterpreneurship and economy.
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