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Economic research bulletin (2007, No.2)
Česká národní banka
This issue of the CNB Research Bulletin is focused on fiscal policy. The first article – by Aleš Krejdl – summarises the different approaches to fiscal sustainability and then applies two of the most widely used indicators – the primary gap and the tax gap – to the Czech fiscal outlook. Another way of addressing fiscal sustainability is to develop generational accounts. This is done – for the first time in the case of the Czech Republic – in the article by Kamil Dybczak. This approach sheds new light on how (un)fair our current fiscal policy is from the intergenerational perspective. The last article – by Alena Bičáková, Jiří Slačálek and Michal Slavík – aims to quantify the impact of labour taxation on labour supply and consequently on the fiscal balance. Again, this is the first time that such an analysis has been performed on the Czech economy.
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Private finance and public policy
Schinasi, Garry J.
This paper articulates a logical foundation—drawn from disparate literatures—for understanding why safeguarding financial stability is an important economic policy objective. The paper also explains why private aspects of finance provide broader social economic benefits and have the characteristics of public goods. Unique aspects of finance are examined, as are the linkages between finance, money, and the real economy.
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Financial integration at times of financial instability
Babecký, Jan ; Komárek, Luboš ; Komárková, Zlatuše
This article analyzes the phenomenon of financial integration on both the theoretical and empirical levels, focusing primarily on assessing the impacts of the current financial crisis. In the theoretical section writers look at the definition of financial integration and summarize the benefits and costs associated with this process. The subsequent empirical section provides an analysis of the speed and level of integration of the Czech financial market and the markets of selected inflation-targeting Central European economies (Hungary and Poland) and advanced Western European economies (Sweden and the UK) with the euro area.
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The impact of population ageing on the Czech economy
Babecký, Jan ; Dybczak, Kakmil
Writers apply a stylised overlapping generation model in order to analyse the potential effects of the expected demographic changes on aggregate economic performance taking into account alternative fiscal policy set-ups. They provide a rough estimate of the amendments necessary on the revenue and expenditure sides in order to keep the current system financially balanced. They also discuss the implications for the development of other economic variables.
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Determinants of house prices in central and eastern Europe
Égert, Balázs ; Mihaljek, Dubravko
This paper studies the determinants of house prices in eight transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and 19 OECD countries. The main question addressed is whether the conventional fundamental determinants of house prices, such as GDP per capita, real interest rates, housing credit and demographic factors, have driven observed house prices in CEE.
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Monetary Conditions and Banks’ Behaviour in the Czech Republic
Geršl, Adam ; Jakubík, Petr ; Kowalczyk, Dorota ; Ongena, Steven ; Alcalde, José-Luis Peydró
This paper examines the impact of monetary conditions on the risk-taking behaviour of banks in the Czech Republic by analysing the comprehensive credit register of the Czech National Bank. Our duration analysis indicates that expansionary monetary conditions promote risk-taking among banks. At the same time, a lower interest rate during the life of a loan reduces its riskiness. While seeking to assess the association between banks’ appetite for risk and the short-term interest rate we answer a set of questions related to the difference between higher liquidity versus credit risk and the effect of the policy rate conditioned on bank and borrower characteristics.
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