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Assessment of the Efficiency of QE in Selected Countries - A TVP-VAR Approach
Bandžak, Denis ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Horváth, Roman (referee)
This thesis applies time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility to assess the effectiveness of quantitative easing in time for the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve System between the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic. We find pronounced and statistically significant response of GDP and level of implied stock market volatility to a QE shock whereas the response of CPI is feeble and statistically insignificant. We argue that this does not necessarily imply that there is no effect of QE on CPI but rather that our model was not able to detect it. We believe that this may be due to inflation expectations channel which our model did not account for. This can be reassessed with a TVP-FAVAR model which is more suitable for such an analysis as it can encompass a larger set of variables. Moreover, apart from the US, we report increasing effectiveness of QE in time. This is opposed by the researchers who believe that QE has rather decreasing effectiveness in time because it is more efficient during economic distress and then its efficiency tends to decrease during normal times. We explain this deviation by citing other unconventional monetary tools such as credit easing, forward guidance or negative...
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A Macroeconomic Forecasting Model of the fixed exchange rate regime for the oil-rich Kazakh economy
Hlédik, Tibor ; Musil, Karel ; Ryšánek, Jakub ; Tonner, Jaromír
This paper presents a semi-structural quarterly projection open-economy model for analyzing monetary policy transmission and macroeconomic developments in Kazakhstan during the period of the fixed exchange rate regime. The model captures key stylized facts of the Kazakh economy, especially the important role of oil prices in influencing the economic cycle in Kazakhstan. The application of the model to observed data provides a reasonable interpretation of Kazakh economic history, including the global crisis, through to late 2015, when the National Bank of Kazakhstan introduced a managed float. The dynamic properties of the model are analyzed using impulse response functions for selected country-specific shocks. The model’s shock decomposition and in-sample forecasting properties presented in the paper suggest that the model was an applicable tool for monetary policy analysis and practical forecasting at the National Bank of Kazakhstan. In a general sense, the model can be considered an example of a quarterly projection model for oil-rich countries with a fixed exchange rate.
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Legality of the Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank throughout the European Debt Crisis.
Matas, Martin ; Tomášek, Michal (advisor) ; Vondráčková, Aneta (referee)
1 Abstract The thesis analyses and critically appraises within a broad context legal disputes concerning the activity of the ECB during the European debt crisis. The analysis is based on legal norms regulating the European monetary union and the political and economic circumstances of their creation. The thesis consists of seven chapters. The first chapter concerns the history of genesis of the Economic and Monetary Union. The second chapter portrays the institutional status, objectives, tasks and instruments of the ECB. It also depicts the components of ECB independence as its key atribute. The third chapter adds some economic thought and theories connected to monetary unions. The theory of optimum currency areas is introduced as well as the costs and benefits of membership in a monetary union. The fourth chapter contains a brief account of the beginnning of the European debt crisis and the measures taken by Member States and the ECB in response to it, particularly the EFSF and ESM mechanisms of financial stability and non-standard monetary policy measures of the ECB. The fifth, sixth and seventh chapters are dedicated to specific proceedings conducted before the CJEU. These are the Pringle, Gauweiler and Weiss cases in which CJEU confirmed that the actions of Member States and the ECB were in accordance...
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Price Level Targeting with Imperfect Rationality: A Heuristic Approach
Molnár, Vojtěch ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Horváth, Roman (referee)
Price Level Targeting with Imperfect Rationality: A Heuristic Approach Vojtěch Molnár Abstract The thesis compares price level targeting and inflation targeting regimes in a New Keynesian model without rational expectations hypothesis. Economic agents instead form their expectations using heuristics-they choose between a few simple rules based on their past forecasting performance. Two main specifications of the price level targeting model are examined-the agents form expectations either about price level or about inflation, which is ex ante not equivalent because of sequential nature of the model. In addition, several formulations of the forecasting rules are considered. According to the results, price level targeting is preferred in the case with expectations created about price level under the baseline calibration; but it is sensitive to some model parameters. Furthermore, when expectations are created about inflation, price level targeting over time loses credibility and leads to divergence of the economy. On the other hand, inflation targeting model functions stably. Therefore, while potential benefits of price level targeting have been confirmed under certain assumptions, the results suggest that inflation targeting constitutes significantly more robust choice for monetary policy.
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Důvody dlouhodobě nízkých úrokových sazeb České národní banky
Urbanová, Daniela
The bachelor thesis deals with the modification of the reaction function of the Czech National Bank by using modified Taylor rule. This rule was introduced in 1993 by US economist John Taylor as a rule of the interest rate. The financial instability is associated with rapid growth of credit activity and rapid growth of asset prices and the period after financial crisis is associated with the reluctance of banks to provide loans. Besides traditional variables of Taylor rule the instability of credit loans provided by commercial banks was included and the effect of this variable on repo rate of the CNB was examined especially after financial crisis. The observed period is from January 2001 to December 2016. The main part of the theoretical part is dedicated to monetary policy of the Czech National Bank and channels of the transmission mechanism, monetary policy rules, the environment of low interest rates in context of liquidity trap and the financial instability.
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Institutional reforms of monetary policy in Azerbaijan
Guliyev, Farid
Bachelor thesis engages in the institutional reforms of monetary policy in Azerbaijan. The aim of this paper is to describe the institutional reform of the monetary policy of the country and to assess the economic impact of these reforms. Thesis is focused on outstanding situation in country economy and monetary institution building after collapse of the United Socialist Soviet Republics. Author studies transition period of economy from central planned system to free market system, building of monetary authority, independence of central bank and monetary policy performance. In practical part author evaluates the changes in institutional reforms of monetary policy for three different periods of time. The institutional reforms of monetary policy were evaluated by effect on main economic indicators. Based on the data, it is possible to say that reforms had a positive impact on first two analysed periods, however recent reforms did not have expected positive influence.
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Ekonomická kríza a zmena role centrálnych bánk: prípadová štúdia Českej a Slovenskej republiky
Galbová, Lenka
Galbová, L. Economic crisis and the change of role of central banks: case study for Czech republic and Slovak republic. Diploma thesis. Brno. Mendel University in Brno, 2018 Diploma thesis deals with impact of monetary policy on economics in Czech republic and Slovak republic in times of financial crisis and after. The theoretical part describes the measures taken by the monetary authorities in both countries, focusing on both standard and non-standard tools that have been used in these times. The main part of the thesis examines the impact of monetary policy through a multiple regression analysis of time series on export and inflation of the Czech and Slovak Republic using selected indicators. Based on the results of the analysis, the thesis evaluates this impact of monetary policy in both countries.
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Nekonvenčné nástroje Európskej centrálnej banky v období finančnej krízy
Bírošík, Roman
The bachelor thesis is focused on monetary policy of the European Central Bank. This thesis describes the causes of the use of unconventional monetary policy measures and explains their functioning in practise. Subsequently, the effectiveness of non-standard measures is evaluated on the basis of the relevant economic indicators in relation to the objectives, which was set. One chapter of the thesis is devoted to the functioning of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and the causes of disruption.
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Dopad devizových intervencí na makroekonomické ukazatele
Roháč, Richard
This bachelor thesis deals with evaluation of CNB’s currency interventions‘ impact on macroeconomic indicators. To achieve this, an analysis of time series of these macroeconomic indicators in software Gretl is used. By creating multiple regression models, the main factors influencing change of consumer price index during intervention regime are determined. To analyze the impact of currency interventions on indicators, interaction terms are used. Exchange rate commitment itself had an impact on real import, unemployment and total consumption. It took six to twelve months before the exchange rate shock was reflected for the most part in consumer prices.
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